Chris Livingston - Expectations

[FitchandMurray29]

I was interested in looking into what to expect from Chris this coming season so I tried to compare him to players ranked the same outta HS at similar positions.

For simplicity I’m using the 247 composite rankings. Chris was 11th in those.

In 2021 the 11th and 12th ranked players play similar positions to Livingston. Both went one and done. Caleb Houstan and Peyton Watson. Houstan averaged 10 and 4 and I would say was decent. Watson averaged 3 and 3 while being an undisputed college bust.

2020 the closest comparison(wing) is Jalen Johnson at 13. He went one and done and left Duke early. He averaged 11 and 6. I would say not what people expected but decent.

2019 the comp is Kahlil Whitney at 11 exactly as Chris. Yikes, moving on.

2018 the best comp is probably Keldon Johnson at 13. Another one we know really well. The best of these players so far, UK or not.

2017 yet another UK guy in Kevin Knox exactly at 11. The consistency of UK guys at this spot is telling we’ve had good recruiting but clearly a notch below what it was prior to 17. Knox had the highest PPG of anyone on this list.


Takeaways from this historical analysis:

-Chris will be one and done due to pedigree even if he doesn’t play well. All the other guys above were OAD, good season or not.

-This ranking with wing players is clearly at a level where scouts notice the tools and potential but it’s far from a slam dunk they’re a great player right away.

-The good news is we’re not dependent on him being a superstar. The physical gifts of players ranked this high make them extremely useful as 4th/5th/6th best options even if it doesn’t all come together in their one year in college.

This isn’t an analysis of Chris the player but at the very least I think he provides size that can guard the 2-4. Our guys at the 2-4 are all small(besides Cason who I’ll call a CG since he’s our backup PG too) in some capacity besides Chris and I think his size will be a big help in improving our team defense this year.

 

[UKWoodford]

Kahlil Whitney is an American professional basketball player for the Newfoundland Growlers of the Canadian Elite Basketball League. He played college basketball for the Kentucky Wildcats. Wikipedia

 

[UKWoodford]

This name came to mind. Wow.

Dakari Naeem Johnson is an American professional basketball player for the Qingdao Eagles of the Chinese Basketball Association. He played college basketball for the University of Kentucky. Wikipedia

 

[DraftCat]

I'm not sure using rankings is a valid method of ranking anyone... classes aren't made equal.

Appreciate the effort you went into to make this post however no dog on that

 

[UKWoodford]

He’s high energy. Guys like that I want on my team.

 

[bookerfan66]

I don't see him being a star in his one season at UK.I imagine he will have games he looks great and games where he disappears.More like a typical freshman.

 

[Tampa_cat54_rivals112262]

The one I keep comparing him to, which is in-line with your thinking is:

Justice Winslow, from Duke's 2015 team.

Winslow was ranked 13th in the class, the #2 SF in the class, and was a SF/PF tweener type as well.

Was listed as 6'7, 225 on Duke's roster, and averaged just shy of 13PPG and 6.5 RPG.

Played a very similar role for Duke to what I hope Livingston can play for us.

 

[Lukasz0brzut]

Which UK players skill set does Livingston most likely compare

 

[FitchandMurray29]

The one I keep comparing him to, which is in-line with your thinking is:

Justice Winslow, from Duke's 2015 team.

Winslow was ranked 13th in the class, the #2 SF in the class, and was a SF/PF tweener type as well.

Was listed as 6'7, 225 on Duke's roster, and averaged just show of 13PPG and 6.5 RPG.

Played a very similar role for Duke to what I hope Livingston can play for us.

Good comp going back a couple more years! Style of player and being physically very developed for freshman are definitely similar. He averaged 12 and 6 on 29 MPG. He also was a 3/4th option for them on a very good team that year. OAD player as well. Using Winslow as a template maybe we expect 10 and 5 on 25 MPG or so before going pro.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

Which UK players skill set does Livingston most likely compare

I personally think Keldon is the best recent memory UK comparison. Similar size, Oak Hill backgrounds, skilled enough but more attacking physical specimens than players that beat you with their skill level.

IMO I’d want him to lose a little bit of weight as his junior year he was insanely explosive and he seemed to fill out at Oak Hill. He also was a unanimous top 5 prospect his junior year.

 

[HerrosHeroes]

15 and 7

 

[Tampa_cat54_rivals112262]

Good comp going back a couple more years! Style of player and being physically very developed for freshman are definitely similar. He averaged 12 and 6 on 29 MPG. He also was a 3/4th option for them on a very good team that year. OAD player as well. Using Winslow as a template maybe we expect 10 and 5 on 25 MPG or so before going pro.

If he can give us what Winslow gave Duke that season- we can be legitimate favorites to cut down the nets. He can be such an X-Factor and matchup difficulty.

This is part of the reason why I'm high on this team. If Livingston can be like Winslow, and Collins can take a big step forward (which I expect), we'll have a seriously talented and versatile team.

 

[Kybluedude]

Physically like MKG to me. Strong. Better shooter. Can run the break and also finish. Hoping he’s as tough minded.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

If he can give us what Winslow gave Duke that season- we can be legitimate favorites to cut down the nets. He can be such an X-Factor and matchup difficulty.

This is part of the reason why I'm high on this team. If Livingston can be like Winslow, and Collins can take a big step forward (which I expect), we'll have a seriously talented and versatile team.

The opinion of those two players is a pretty effective litmus test in determining the optimists/pessimists on the board. I think we also see a big jump from Collins. School measurements are always ridiculous but we can tell Collins has put on some weight while hitting a 43 inch very today. There just aren’t many guys not in the NBA already that can do that at 6’9/6’10.

 

[PowerK]

Which UK players skill set does Livingston most likely compare

MKG…. A bully at the 3. He is a sf/wing with a high motor and good defense. Good length and adequate handle. He can shoot the 3 from the corner better than MKG could. Livingston will be on the floor for every 50/50 ball and come away with most of them. I see him being a 12/6 type player.

 

[Lukasz0brzut]

MKG…. A bully at the 3. He is a sf/wing with a high motor and good defense. Good length and adequate handle. He can shoot the 3 from the corner better than MKG could. Livingston will be on the floor for every 50/50 ball and come away with most of them. I see him being a 12/6 type player.

So on paper maybe not the best fit next to a version of Toppin from last year?

 

[Tampa_cat54_rivals112262]

The opinion of those two players is a pretty effective litmus test in determining the optimists/pessimists on the board. I think we also see a big jump from Collins. School measurements are always ridiculous but we can tell Collins has put on some weight while hitting a 43 inch very today. There just aren’t many guys not in the NBA already that can do that at 6’9/6’10.

Totally agree.

I see Livingston and Collins as going to be major, major impact guys next year.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

So on paper maybe not the best fit next to a version of Toppin from last year?

Correct. But using Terrence Jones and MKG as a template, Jones shot 1.3 3s a game in 2012. I think we think of him more of a stretch option from his prior season where he shot over 2 a game. Both seasons he ironically shot 32% from 3 so not a sharpshooter by any means even if he could stretch the floor.

If Toppin doesn’t have the skill/confidence in his shot to get to 1 3 point attempt a game he won’t get the much expected PT bump fans are thinking. Those minutes will go to Collins to try and have an elite shot blocking presence a la Robert Williams this NBA playoffs.

Toppin shot 4 2s a game last year and only .3 3s for reference.

 

[akaukswoosh]

I don't see him being a star in his one season at UK.I imagine he will have games he looks great and games where he disappears.More like a typical freshman.

Agree.

 

[Lempface]

I'm expecting Bryce Hopkins level performance but Cal will play him much more. I honestly don't have high hopes for him. But last year I thought Collins would be a stud so I'm no soothsayer lol.

 

[BigCat241]

Justise Winslow is a perfect comparison/expectation for him. FWIW, I think Livingston might be the better offensive player than Winslow was but weaker on D

 

[DudahUK]

I was interested in looking into what to expect from Chris this coming season so I tried to compare him to players ranked the same outta HS at similar positions.

For simplicity I’m using the 247 composite rankings. Chris was 11th in those.

In 2021 the 11th and 12th ranked players play similar positions to Livingston. Both went one and done. Caleb Houstan and Peyton Watson. Houstan averaged 10 and 4 and I would say was decent. Watson averaged 3 and 3 while being an undisputed college bust.

2020 the closest comparison(wing) is Jalen Johnson at 13. He went one and done and left Duke early. He averaged 11 and 6. I would say not what people expected but decent.

2019 the comp is Kahlil Whitney at 11 exactly as Chris. Yikes, moving on.

2018 the best comp is probably Keldon Johnson at 13. Another one we know really well. The best of these players so far, UK or not.

2017 yet another UK guy in Kevin Knox exactly at 11. The consistency of UK guys at this spot is telling we’ve had good recruiting but clearly a notch below what it was prior to 17. Knox had the highest PPG of anyone on this list.


Takeaways from this historical analysis:

-Chris will be one and done due to pedigree even if he doesn’t play well. All the other guys above were OAD, good season or not.

-This ranking with wing players is clearly at a level where scouts notice the tools and potential but it’s far from a slam dunk they’re a great player right away.

-The good news is we’re not dependent on him being a superstar. The physical gifts of players ranked this high make them extremely useful as 4th/5th/6th best options even if it doesn’t all come together in their one year in college.

This isn’t an analysis of Chris the player but at the very least I think he provides size that can guard the 2-4. Our guys at the 2-4 are all small(besides Cason who I’ll call a CG since he’s our backup PG too) in some capacity besides Chris and I think his size will be a big help in improving our team defense this year.

Good research sir.

 

[BlueThunderstruck]

Totally agree.

I see Livingston and Collins as going to be major, major impact guys next year.

For us to get where we want to be, they’ll have to.

 

[davekersey]

Livingston is a terrific defender

 

[Bowfreak.]

He's gonna be a baller, shot caller, 20 inch blades on the Impala.....

 

[rob_47]

I've been watching his

MKG…. A bully at the 3. He is a sf/wing with a high motor and good defense. Good length and adequate handle. He can shoot the 3 from the corner better than MKG could. Livingston will be on the floor for every 50/50 ball and come away with most of them. I see him being a 12/6 type player.

Yeah I was watching highlights last night and l do see a lot of mkg in Livingston even some of their drives to the basket loom crazy similar. He is a strong kid and has all the same physical tools Gilchrist had.

 

[cats#1again]

The

I was interested in looking into what to expect from Chris this coming season so I tried to compare him to players ranked the same outta HS at similar positions.

For simplicity I’m using the 247 composite rankings. Chris was 11th in those.

In 2021 the 11th and 12th ranked players play similar positions to Livingston. Both went one and done. Caleb Houstan and Peyton Watson. Houstan averaged 10 and 4 and I would say was decent. Watson averaged 3 and 3 while being an undisputed college bust.

2020 the closest comparison(wing) is Jalen Johnson at 13. He went one and done and left Duke early. He averaged 11 and 6. I would say not what people expected but decent.

2019 the comp is Kahlil Whitney at 11 exactly as Chris. Yikes, moving on.

2018 the best comp is probably Keldon Johnson at 13. Another one we know really well. The best of these players so far, UK or not.

2017 yet another UK guy in Kevin Knox exactly at 11. The consistency of UK guys at this spot is telling we’ve had good recruiting but clearly a notch below what it was prior to 17. Knox had the highest PPG of anyone on this list.


Takeaways from this historical analysis:

-Chris will be one and done due to pedigree even if he doesn’t play well. All the other guys above were OAD, good season or not.

-This ranking with wing players is clearly at a level where scouts notice the tools and potential but it’s far from a slam dunk they’re a great player right away.

-The good news is we’re not dependent on him being a superstar. The physical gifts of players ranked this high make them extremely useful as 4th/5th/6th best options even if it doesn’t all come together in their one year in college.

This isn’t an analysis of Chris the player but at the very least I think he provides size that can guard the 2-4. Our guys at the 2-4 are all small(besides Cason who I’ll call a CG since he’s our backup PG too) in some capacity besides Chris and I think his size will be a big help in improving our team defense this year.

one thing that matters ....
At what level is his ball handling ability
He will either be Alex Poythress (who couldn't handle the ball to save his life) or someone that plays like MKG

 

[FFWhite]

Ball handling is better than Poythress but not MKG. MKG had exceptional handles for a kid with his size. Poythress lack of handles kept him out of the NBA

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

I've been making these same comparisons, looking at guys ranked similarly in past classes. And just thinking, if he's a Keldon Johnson, or if he can be a Kevin Knox, while Wallace can be somewhere on the level of guys like Murray, Monk, Maxey, then we are gonna be damn good. Sure we've had some busts and mediocre performers, but more often than not these highly rated guys at least play well.

A while back I made a list of all our 5 star recruits over the Cal years with their 24/7 composite ranking. Top 5 guys were, predictably, usually stars (with the exception of Skal and Boston). Guys outside the top 15 were hit or miss. But the guys in between, 6-15, were usually at least solid with some being stars. All the guys who were in that 6-15 range:

9 Jones
6 Teague
7 Poythress
15 Goodwin
6 Aaron Harrison
9 Young
10 Dakari
12 Lyles
10 Murray
12 Briscoe
6 Fox
9 Bam
11 Monk
15 Gabriel
10 Diallo
11 Knox
12 Vanderbilt
15 PJ
9 EJ
12 Hagans
13 Keldon Johnson
10 Maxey
11 Whitney
8 Clarke
15 Tyty
8 Wallace
11 Livingston

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

I'm expecting Bryce Hopkins level performance but Cal will play him much more. I honestly don't have high hopes for him. But last year I thought Collins would be a stud so I'm no soothsayer lol.

Last year I correctly predicted Collins would be too weak and not play much. Year before I correctly predicted Boston was overrated (based on just 1 HS game of his I saw on tv, too much of a "me first player" just standing out on the wing), saying he would be ok but NOT a star player.

I too think most are expecting too much from Livingston. Reeves (20ppg) was brought in to play the 3, I would think at least half the game. You could put Fredrick there some too. Because I do think Wallace's play will earn him 28-32 mpg, and we know Wheeler will play 25-30. Toppin and Collins (who I think will have a big leap forward, maybe even outplay Toppin) will mostly man the 4. So I think Livingston will be productive, but may be limited to 12-15mpg as our 8th man (maybe a little at each the 3 and 4, but more at the 3).
Think of it this way, the 77mpg that Tyty/Grady/Mintz played will be replaced by Wallace/Reeves/Fredrick (I'm thinking 32/24/21). Collins takes Brooks minutes, or he takes Toppin's and Toppin takes Brooks. That leaves Collins + Hopkins + Allen's minutes (15) to Livingston.

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

A followup, going back before Cal: Patterson was 10th in his class, Morris 8th, Crawford 12th, Rondo 17th. 24/7 doesn't go farther back than 2003.

Darius was criminally underrated at 82nd in his class. Speaking of Darius, it's a damn good thing he signed that nice contract (2 year, $14M) when he did, his achilles injury was less than 2 months later and appears to have ended his career. Missed an entire season, came back the following and played only 18 games, and is now inactive. He made $71,000 per minute played on that contract. Sad that injury derailed him, he was a very nice 3 and D role player who probably had at least a few more good years in him.

 

[Padsfs07]

To expand out your rankings range some, guys from last year like #8 Patrick Baldwin and #14 Kendall Brown would compare well. From the 2020 rankings, Scottie Barnes is similar. From the 2019 rankings, I'd say Josh Green is right there, in 2018, Louis King, and, in 2017, Troy Brown.

If you take all the players we've listed, you get an average of 10.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, and 32.6% 3PT% in a range from Keldon Johnson/Kevin Knox (14.6 PPG/5.7 RPG) on the high end to Peyton Watson/Khalil Whitney (3.3 PPG/2.3 RPG) on the far lower end. To be fair, those 2 are huge busts compared to the rest of the 12 or so players. It looks like the key to getting to that 10-14 PPG, 25-30 MPG range is to shoot over 30%+ on 3s.

 

[STL_Cat]

He looks like Poythress to me a little, especially with the high upright dribbling. I don't see him being the demon in transition that MKG was, not even close. There's probably only been one player better in transition for UK over the past 25 years or so, and that was John Wall. Every time we get a wing we try to make him MKG. Keldon Johnson was going to be like MKG, THE DRAGON was going to be similar to MKG. It's just not likely. MKG was a special, special freshman player. One of the best we have ever had.

 

[bucsrule8872]

Justise Winslow is a perfect comparison/expectation for him. FWIW, I think Livingston might be the better offensive player than Winslow was but weaker on D

I would take that all day long.

 

[bucsrule8872]

As a UK comparison, I see Livingston as a poor man’s MKG. Not as talented of course, but style of play.

I see him eventually starting at the 3, since I think he is the most athletic player at his position. I think he will be very good defensively, once he gets acclimated to the college game. I am concerned about his shooting. I figure he probably averages low 30’s from 3. I think he will be a good rebounder from the 3 spot.

I think he could play some small ball 4, but with Toppin and Collins being pretty much locked into that spot, I doubt we see much of him there.

I think the idea of him playing the 2, is just him talking. We have Wallace, Fredrick, and Reeves at that spot. There’s really no reason for him to play that spot unless there is a major rash of injuries.

 

[JC CATS]

Jimmy Chitwood

 

[bassworship]

I feel Livingston will be a much better shooter this year than many are thinking.

 

[STL_Cat]

I feel Livingston will be a much better shooter this year than many are thinking.

I feel like I read this about a lot of our freshman every single year and it is almost never right. It's just wishful thinking. Who is the last guy that came in and was a "much better shooter than we were expecting!"?

 

[BigCat241]

I feel like I read this about a lot of our freshman every single year and it is almost never right. It's just wishful thinking. Who is the last guy that came in and was a "much better shooter than we were expecting!"?

Agree with that mostly, but I feel like some expect Livingston to be a total non-shooter and to be left wide open on the perimeter, which I dont think to be the case.

 

[bassworship]

I feel like I read this about a lot of our freshman every single year and it is almost never right. It's just wishful thinking. Who is the last guy that came in and was a "much better shooter than we were expecting!"?

Yeah I guess your right. I mean we've not had any good freshman during Cal's tenure lol.