I think she’ll end up getting roughly a one-year suspension, and I think that’s fair. I think it was innocent in the sense she wasn’t aware the drug had been banned, because it would be monumentally stupid if she continued to take it when she knew it was banned. It was still dumb for her team not to know the drug had just been added to the banned list, but not as dumb as knowingly taking a banned substance.
The ITF calls for a four-year suspension for an intentional violation. But if it’s deemed to be a mistake (which again I think it was), it’s supposed to be a two-year ban, but then “fault or negligence” can be taken into consideration and the suspension can be reduced by half (this happened to Marin Cilic). So I think she’ll have a two-year suspension reduced to approximately one year based upon the mitigating factors that (1) the drug was just banned; and (2) she didn’t realize it had been banned (although she should have).
I think a one-year suspension is fair because the ITF needs to show there’s no special treatment for star players, particularly when its credibility has been an issue following the recent match-fixing scandal. There’s long been suspicion, fair or not, that star players receive special treatment with respect to drug testing, so in the end this could be good for the sport’s credibility. The rules set out the punishments, and those rules need to be enforced, even though it sucks for her to spend a year away from the Tour this late in her career. And I agree she handled it well by holding the press conference, taking responsibility, and getting out in front on the issue.
