And then I saw this

[biscuit.sixpack]

Now that we've got the Final AP Top 25 in for this year, we can officially look at Freeze's record against the final AP Top 25 through his 4 seasons.

2012: 0-6 (losses to #1 Bama, #5 Texas A&M, #5 Georgia, #14 LSU, #19 Texas, #23 Vanderbilt)
2013: 2-4 (wins against #14 LSU, #24 Vanderbilt, losses to #2 Auburn, #5 Missouri, #7 Alabama, #18 Texas A&M)
2014: 4-2 (wins against #4 Alabama, #11 MSU, #16 Boise State, #25 Memphis, losses to #3 TCU, #22 Auburn)
2015: 3-1 (wins against #1 Alabama, #16 LSU, #20 Oklahoma State, loss to #25 Florida)

Total: 9-13 (0.409 winning percentage)
Freeze's winning percentage against teams finishing outside the Top 25 is (25-5) 0.833.

That's quite impressive to win over 40% of your games against the best teams in the country, especially if you throw out the 2012 season, since that was the very beginning of the rebuild. Freeze has won 56.25% of his games against teams finishing in the Top 25 over the last 3 seasons. In just the last two seasons, that number jumps to 66.67% against teams finishing in the Top 25.

For comparison, here is what Mullen has done against teams finishing in the Top 25:

2009: 1-4 (win over #20 Ole Miss)
2010: 0-4
2011: 0-5
2012: 0-4
2013: 0-5
2014: 1-3 (win over #22 Auburn)
2015: 0-3

Total: 2-28 (0.067 winning percentage)
Mullen is 53-7 against teams finishing outside the Top 25, for a 0.883 winning percentage.

 

[KurtRambis4]

The little engine that could**

*

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Fishwater - bookmark this.

 

[57stratdawg]

Those numbers truly are staggering.

 

[dawgstudent]

That is definitely the knock on Mullen. The main question - as a fan - are you willing to accept the same results.

For Mullen - the line has moved where beating the teams we are supposed to beat is now 2-3 more wins than it was 6 years ago.

 

[FlotownDawg]

Those numbers show why many State fans are frustrated with Mullen. Yes, he has risen the bar from winning 3 and 4 games per year and has us beating the teams we are supposed to beat. But once you accomplish one goal, you set another one. We have not broken through the glass ceiling with a truly big win the way Ole Miss has done under Freeze. That is why Ole Miss is getting so much more national attention that we are. They have beaten Alabama two years in a row, they have beaten LSU three out of four years, and smacked around the Big 12's second place team in the Sugar Bowl. We beat the teams we are supposed to beat and lose to the teams we are supposed to lose to. Those great wins we had in 2014 that catapulted us to #1 turned out to be not so great when the season played itself out. Only Auburn finished the season ranked, and they were barely inside the top 25. Now that the SEC mandates we play a Power 5 non-conference game per year, we won't be able to schedule four cupcakes and win 2 or 3 SEC games to get bowl eligible and have a good season. It's going to get tougher. Mullen has constantly talked about playing to a new standard. If that is the case, he needs to start winning some games against ranked teams.

 

[dawgstudent]

The way we have scheduled the power 5 OOC games - we aren't going out and getting the upper echelon of the conference. We still have a great chance - albeit not as great as previous years - to win 4 OOC games.

 

[rugbdawg]

What's most frustrating, as a fan, is the complacency

That Mullen has shown. He seems content to enjoy what he has built at State because poor Old Miss State can't do any better. The citizens of Mississippi should be eternally grateful to Mullen

Those numbers show why many State fans are frustrated with Mullen. Yes, he has risen the bar from winning 3 and 4 games per year and has us beating the teams we are supposed to beat. But once you accomplish one goal, you set another one. We have not broken through the glass ceiling with a truly big win the way Ole Miss has done under Freeze. That is why Ole Miss is getting so much more national attention that we are. They have beaten Alabama two years in a row, they have beaten LSU three out of four years, and smacked around the Big 12's second place team in the Sugar Bowl. We beat the teams we are supposed to beat and lose to the teams we are supposed to lose to. Those great wins we had in 2014 that catapulted us to #1 turned out to be not so great when the season played itself out. Only Auburn finished the season ranked, and they were barely inside the top 25. Now that the SEC mandates we play a Power 5 non-conference game per year, we won't be able to schedule four cupcakes and win 2 or 3 SEC games to get bowl eligible and have a good season. It's going to get tougher. Mullen has constantly talked about playing to a new standard. If that is the case, he needs to start winning some games against ranked teams.

 

[thekimmer]

Wow. Forgive me while I go pessimistic for a bit..

Now that we've got the Final AP Top 25 in for this year, we can officially look at Freeze's record against the final AP Top 25 through his 4 seasons.

2012: 0-6 (losses to #1 Bama, #5 Texas A&M, #5 Georgia, #14 LSU, #19 Texas, #23 Vanderbilt)
2013: 2-4 (wins against #14 LSU, #24 Vanderbilt, losses to #2 Auburn, #5 Missouri, #7 Alabama, #18 Texas A&M)
2014: 4-2 (wins against #4 Alabama, #11 MSU, #16 Boise State, #25 Memphis, losses to #3 TCU, #22 Auburn)
2015: 3-1 (wins against #1 Alabama, #16 LSU, #20 Oklahoma State, loss to #25 Florida)

Total: 9-13 (0.409 winning percentage)
Freeze's winning percentage against teams finishing outside the Top 25 is (25-5) 0.833.

That's quite impressive to win over 40% of your games against the best teams in the country, especially if you throw out the 2012 season, since that was the very beginning of the rebuild. Freeze has won 56.25% of his games against teams finishing in the Top 25 over the last 3 seasons. In just the last two seasons, that number jumps to 66.67% against teams finishing in the Top 25.

For comparison, here is what Mullen has done against teams finishing in the Top 25:

2009: 1-4 (win over #20 Ole Miss)
2010: 0-4
2011: 0-5
2012: 0-4
2013: 0-5
2014: 1-3 (win over #22 Auburn)
2015: 0-3

Total: 2-28 (0.067 winning percentage)
Mullen is 53-7 against teams finishing outside the Top 25, for a 0.883 winning percentage.

Sure we beat several teams that were highly ranked AT THE TIME. Like the three consecutive top 10 wins last season but those signature Ws are ultimately validated once the final body of work is completed and alas only one of the three held up in the final poll.

What this means to me is that the knock on Mullen that we thought he had put behind him is unfortunately right back out in front. With the best QB in our history and the only legit heisman candidate we've ever had, we managed to win just ONE GAME against a team that finished in the rankings. That is depressing.

OK lets look on the bright side. We have gone to 5 straight bowl games and won 9 games in consecutive seasons for the first time ever. Oh, and UT won the NC the year after Peyton left!

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Can you add in the teams and rankings for our losses too?

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Thought I would look at old Croom.

Year: Top 25, Outside Top 25 (Games against Top 25)
2004: 0-2, 3-6 (L #2 Auburn, #16 LSU)
2005: 0-5, 3-3 (L #6 LSU, #8 Alabama, #10 Georgia, #12 Florida, #14 Auburn)
2006: 0-5, 3-4 (L #3 LSU, #9 Auburn, #10 WV, #15 Arkansas, #23 Georgia
2007: 1-3, 7-2 (L #1 LSU, #6 WV, #12 UT, W #15 Auburn)
2008: 0-3, 4-5 (L #6 Alabama, #14 UM, #22 GT)
Top 25: 1-18 (0.052 winning percentage)
Rest: 20-20 (0.500. I didn't think this would be that high)

There's almost no statistical difference on record (we do perform better score-wise) when it comes to games against top talent. We do a much better job against the teams we're supposed to beat.

I'm not saying Croom is as good of a coach as Mullen - in fact he's nowhere near Mullen. It's just that our frustration against top teams is a continuation of where we were 10 years ago.

 

[engie]

I'm fine with "winning the games we should win" as long as the number of games we "should" win continues to creep up year after year. We were undefeated as favorites this year and 1-4 as underdogs. So, the "expectation" was 8 wins this year according to Vegas and we surpassed that.

 

[DerHntr]

Any one who says this isn't troubling is putting his head in the sand. We have risen the floor and we are competing the way an SEC team should compete against out of conference opponents. This is a commendable and very positive change from the past. Within the conference though, we have maintained our status as a W on the schedule for a good team. I hope we figure out the formula to take the next step forward as a program.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Curse the darkness!

 

[aTotal360]

I said it a while back...our scheduling has won us more games than our coaching and recruiting.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

We have plateau'd at that stage. The frustrating part is that our northern neighbors aren't plateauing. Their recruiting is the difference. We HAVE to start recruiting better or this is the pinnacle.

Before you say, "Stop worrying about Ole Miss!1!1!," let me say that they are our best measuring stick. Whatever they accomplish, we can accomplish (and vice versa). I see the two schools as equals so if they are kicking our tails in recruiting then we need to step up. I don't care what it takes.

Also we have to beat Bama. No one takes us seriously because we can't beat them. OM has beaten them so they are taken seriously. We have to find a way to beat them or we will be stuck under this ceiling.

 

[esplanade91]

This.

The knock on Mullen not winning big games is fair, but lets not pretend that Freeze and Mullen began on equal footing. Freeze took over a team that had recently visited back-to-back Cotton Bowls.

What has been the story since is that Freeze can manage a roster better than Mullen, and it's not really close. When was the last time another SEC school had essentially a rookie LT the same year they started a 5th year senior QB? Alongside a rookie RB?

 

[johnson86-1]

Any one who says this isn't troubling is putting his head in the sand. We have risen the floor and we are competing the way an SEC team should compete against out of conference opponents. This is a commendable and very positive change from the past. Within the conference though, we have maintained our status as a W on the schedule for a good team. I hope we figure out the formula to take the next step forward as a program.

I don't know if it's troubling. It's not as good as pairing winning all the games your supposed to win along with some upsets over good teams, but it's not troubling (yet) because Mullen has elevated the talent to where the number of games we should win has been increasing, albeit slowly. That's a pretty good alternative to most coaching hires. If you believe recruiting rankings, we have steadily been improving our talent and could raise the floor a little higher the next two years. We could win 8 regular season games next year in a rebuilding year, which would be very impressive. I'm actually not that optimistic it will happen, as I think our OL and RB recruiting the past few years has already made 8 wins too tough of a hill to climb, but hopefully I'm wrong. I do think everywhere but OL we have been recruiting at a level that would allow us to take another step.

My concern is that our OL recruiting ahs set the ceiling pretty low on teh next two years, and I'm not sure it's likely Mullen will jump back up with a good stretch after being here 9 years. Just difficult for most coaches to stay anywhere that long, much less have as much intensity and success after almost a decade.

 

[aTotal360]

It's odd to think that we are winning and getting left behind.

 

[QuadrupleOption]

For comparison, here is what Mullen has done against teams finishing in the Top 25

This phrase is why this whole argument is ********. It's a moving goalpost, just like "Mullen hasn't beaten any team in the SEC West not named Ole Miss".

His record against top 25 opponents certainly isn't where I would like it to be, but to discount wins against Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M just because they didn't win 11 games each is crap. They were all playing at a pretty high level when we beat them and to discount that because of an AP season ending poll is crazy.

We are the only fanbase in the country that would dog our own coach with slanted facts first introduced by rival fans.

 

[TSUNBearHunter]

This.

The knock on Mullen not winning big games is fair, but lets not pretend that Freeze and Mullen began on equal footing. Freeze took over a team that had recently visited back-to-back Cotton Bowls.

Croom had won 12 games, 6 of which were SEC games, in the two years before Mullen.

Nutt had won 6 games, and only 1 SEC game, in the two years before Freeze.

If we are talking talent, Nutt left one player for Freeze that was drafted.

Didn't Mullen inherit 6 or 8 NFL draft picks from Croom?

 

[Dawgtini]

This phrase is why this whole argument is ********. It's a moving goalpost, just like "Mullen hasn't beaten any team in the SEC West not named Ole Miss".

His record against top 25 opponents certainly isn't where I would like it to be, but to discount wins against Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M just because they didn't win 11 games each is crap. They were all playing at a pretty high level when we beat them and to discount that because of an AP season ending poll is crazy.

We are the only fanbase in the country that would dog our own coach with slanted facts first introduced by rival fans.

Agreed. Regarding last year, I wonder why AR, LSU, and ATM weren't ranked and AU only snuck in at #22?? I mean, we were #11?

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Context Added

His record against top 25 opponents certainly isn't where I would like it to be, but to discount wins against Florida (8-5), Georgia (6-7), LSU (8-5), and Texas A&M (8-5) just because they didn't win 11 games each is crap.

It's adding context. It's not discounting. The teams you just listed were a combined 30-22. Quit looking at the names on the jerseys and start looking at the records. We don't win big games. We haven't had a lead against Alabama since Croom was coach. This is why we aren't taken seriously. This is why the "blackbear media disrespects us!1!1!" We haven't earned it on the field and we haven't recruited in a way that looks like we'll do it in the future.

 

[aTotal360]

Bingo. Someone people don't want to dig deeper because it hurts their feelings. Adding context is never a bad thing.

 

[TheOMlawdog]

Does anyone believe this story?

The knock on Mullen not winning big games is fair, but lets not pretend that Freeze and Mullen began on equal footing. Freeze took over a team that had recently visited back-to-back Cotton Bowls.

Are MSU fans just going to let this slide? Equal footing? When Freeze arrived on campus the 2011 recruiting class had just completed their freshman year and we had roughly 6-8 kids committed that were solid but not NFL Draft picks.

We didn't have a single senior drafted after the 2012 season or the 2013 season. Moncrief was the lone junior draftee in 2013. In 2014, Golson was the only draftee, looking at this year, I don't think there is a RS Senior that will get drafted - maybe CJ JOhnson, but not likely with his injuries.

So Freeze inherited 2 NFL players on his entire roster or were committed to Ole Miss when he took over.

As opposed to Mullen who inherited a team with the following NFL players/draft picks:

Charles Mitchell
Camerson Lawrence
Johnthan Banks
Jamar Chaney
Anthony Dixon
Ladarius Perkins
KJ Wright
Chris White
Deontae Skinner
Gabe Jackson
Derek Sherrod
Pernell McPhee
Kyle Love
Josh Boyd
Fletcher Cox

Look, there are dumpster fires, and then there are dumpster fires. Don't go trying to say your dumpster fire was bigger than ours, because Nutt tried to kill our program. Croom actually set up the next guy with some talent.

 

[KurtRambis4]

Your

obsession with MSU has gotten to the point where it is just downright funny.

 

[Chappy.sixpack]

The knock on Mullen not winning big games is fair, but lets not pretend that Freeze and Mullen began on equal footing. Freeze took over a team that had recently visited back-to-back Cotton Bowls

I agree that OM had been to back-to-back Cotton Bowls, but after those seasons, they won 4 games (1 SEC) and 2 games (0 SEC). Plus Freeze's first recruiting class, after their 2-10 season, was ranked #58 in the country (by Scout). So its not as if Freeze inherited much. And, yes, Dak didn't have an O-line or RB to help him this year, but we won't next year either and breaking in a new QB. Until our recruiting improves significantly, I don't expect us to beat Top 25 teams... hell, we didn't with the best college player in the history of our program running things. I expect 5-7 wins next season depending upon our quarterback play. If we recruit well this year (Top 15-20 nationally), then I may have improved expectations for our 2018 season. I haven't calculated any figures, but I would expect that most teams will finish in the polls somewhere close to where they have averaged finishing the 3 previous years in recruiting. Before someone comes on here and points out this team or that team that doesn't follow that theory, I know that there will be outliers, but on average I imagine that recruiting is a good predictor of rankings.

 

[OleMissLogo]

I'm not one to usually defend Mullen (and in fact I may use this info to dog him at a later point), but QuadrupleOption has some legitimacy to his point. Although, it may not be in the way that he intended.

Take the wins he listed:
Florida (8-5)
Georgia (6-7)
LSU (8-5)
Texas A&M (8-5)

Georgia can be discounted, but if you flip the result of the other 3, then you are talking about 3 9-win teams that are almost assuredly ranked. Of course ifs and buts and all that jazz, but State didn't beat "a ranked team" only because State won. Had State lost, then they are likely ranked.

If State had lost to those 3, then the OP and fishwater would be adding 3 Ls to the tally, but because State won it's as if those games were meaningless. Nah, I'd count them, or least put an * by the W column.

Now, with that said, I do agree that using the Final Poll is better than using the ranking at the time of the game (no A&M did NOT beat #15 Arizona State, they beat 6-7 ASU). However, there is context for both sides of the argument. No, they weren't at the top of their program potential when State beat them, but they were still quality wins, if not ranked wins.

Alright, now I need to go wash my mouth out with soap or something.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Georgia can be discounted, but if you flip the result of the other 3, then you are talking about 3 9-win teams that are almost assuredly ranked. Of course ifs and buts and all that jazz, but State didn't beat "a ranked team" only because State won. Had State lost, then they are likely ranked..

Having both miss. schools winning is putting Ls on the other teams.

These comparisons are worth only dead horse abuse. The bottom line, win the games on the schedule.

 

[TSUNBearHunter]

obsession with MSU has gotten to the point where it is just downright funny.

So I guess that would make your obsession with me just as or more funny?

You and I both know that my point was valid. I'm sorry that participating bothers you so much.

Put me on ignore, bury your head in the sand in your ****** further, or maybe even call someone a ***** or a chicken **** over the internet again. Whatever makes you feel better.

 

[KurtRambis4]

You

know how many draft picks State had over a period, dating back to 7 years ago. If that doesn't show your obsession with State, I don't know what does.

I called you a ***** because you make **** up for no purpose other than stirring **** up, get called on it, and never admit to being a *****...that and you watch boys take showers for fun.

 

[TSUNBearHunter]

know how many draft picks State had over a period, dating back to 7 years ago. If that doesn't show your obsession with State, I don't know what does.

I called you a ***** because you make **** up for no purpose other than stirring **** up, get called on it, and never admit to being a *****...that and you watch boys take showers for fun.

Such a tough guy!

Let me show you a little internet secret badasses like you may not have discovered yet... http://tinyurl.com/gtvwtbh

 

[johnson86-1]

I agree that OM had been to back-to-back Cotton Bowls, but after those seasons, they won 4 games (1 SEC) and 2 games (0 SEC). Plus Freeze's first recruiting class, after their 2-10 season, was ranked #58 in the country (by Scout). So its not as if Freeze inherited much. And, yes, Dak didn't have an O-line or RB to help him this year, but we won't next year either and breaking in a new QB. Until our recruiting improves significantly, I don't expect us to beat Top 25 teams... hell, we didn't with the best college player in the history of our program running things. I expect 5-7 wins next season depending upon our quarterback play. If we recruit well this year (Top 15-20 nationally), then I may have improved expectations for our 2018 season. I haven't calculated any figures, but I would expect that most teams will finish in the polls somewhere close to where they have averaged finishing the 3 previous years in recruiting. Before someone comes on here and points out this team or that team that doesn't follow that theory, I know that there will be outliers, but on average I imagine that recruiting is a good predictor of rankings.

I think you're probably right for top 10 classes, but I think after that the correlation would drop significantly. Recruiting websites don't have talent at evaluating players. They can probably spot the studs, but beyond that, they're just going off of who gets offers from where. I'm guessing by the time you get to top 25 to top 40, there's very little predictive ability of rankings, especially if you exclude just predicting programs to basically stay at the same level they usually are.

 

[johnson86-1]

Bingo. Someone people don't want to dig deeper because it hurts their feelings. Adding context is never a bad thing.

It is when people don't understand the context. There's no disputing that Mullen hasn't won games against elite teams or top teams. But record against top 25 is sort of a ridiculous measure since the top 25 doesn't represent the top 25 teams in the country; teams that finish lower in their division tend to be penalized, even if they are a top 25 team. You'd be much better off looking at records or even SEC records of the teams we beat.

Mullen has elevated the program enough that we are consistently a swing game. During his tenure, most teams he's played have had guaranteed losses against LSU and Bama, so a loss to MSU has put them at 3 losses before they get to another conference game, meaning at best they're going to be on the fringe of the top 25 poll, even if they are easily a top 25 team talent wise. Mullen basically hasn't managed to beat a top 15 team. He's done ok against teams that are in the 15 or probably more like 20 to 30 range, although this was probably his worst year as far as performance against those type teams.

 

[aTotal360]

You must have missed this. We are crushing cans and beating average SEC teams.

View attachment 2907

 

[KurtRambis4]

Again

proving your obsession w MSU. You know how many times I've ever googled "OM drafted players"...

Thank you for proving my point.

 

[dannyripms]

Here is the thing, most of us in the sec say we are the toughest country top to bottom. Our last place teams can beat most conferences 3 or 4 place team. So I think it's better to look at the record versus sec teams. Sure there's argument that we haven't beat the very top sec teams but beat a lot of good ones. I think we are inching closers every year. It will get to a point to where we are expected to beat LSU or Bama consistently. A lot of the great coaches didn't win big until they were at their school for 15 years or more. The one thing they did do on consistent basis was win 8 games or better until that breakout year. I do agree about recruiting but it will come. Once the right formula is put together. Mullen is going to be with us for a very long time.

 

[Reasonable-ish aggie]

From an outsider, I have always regarded Mullen as top notch. However, those statistics are awful. Beating ole miss is mullen's best win? That is pathetic and I bet you can't brag too much about that win.

 

[Spiderman.sixpack]

Are MSU fans just going to let this slide? Equal footing? When Freeze arrived on campus the 2011 recruiting class had just completed their freshman year and we had roughly 6-8 kids committed that were solid but not NFL Draft picks.

We didn't have a single senior drafted after the 2012 season or the 2013 season. Moncrief was the lone junior draftee in 2013. In 2014, Golson was the only draftee, looking at this year, I don't think there is a RS Senior that will get drafted - maybe CJ JOhnson, but not likely with his injuries.

So Freeze inherited 2 NFL players on his entire roster or were committed to Ole Miss when he took over.

As opposed to Mullen who inherited a team with the following NFL players/draft picks:

Charles Mitchell
Camerson Lawrence
Johnthan Banks
Jamar Chaney
Anthony Dixon
Ladarius Perkins
KJ Wright
Chris White
Deontae Skinner
Gabe Jackson
Derek Sherrod
Pernell McPhee
Kyle Love
Josh Boyd
Fletcher Cox

Look, there are dumpster fires, and then there are dumpster fires. Don't go trying to say your dumpster fire was bigger than ours, because Nutt tried to kill our program. Croom actually set up the next guy with some talent.

Mullen signed Banks, McPhee, Cox, Perkins, White, Jackson,Skinner,Lawrence and I think Boyd. That's not inheriting....

 

[cofreb]

Mullen signed them

Mullen signed Banks, McPhee, Cox, Perkins, White, Jackson,Skinner,Lawrence and I think Boyd. That's not inheriting....

Although all but Perkins and maybe white committed to croom.