Bowl Projections: Week 11 - Letdown Edition

[00Dawg]

Brett McMurphy (ESPN): Gator Bowl vs Duke
Mark Schlabach (ESPN): Liberty Bowl vs Arizona State (can't see this happening, as the Big 12 has lots of eligible teams)
Jerry Palm (CBS): Gator Bowl vs Louisville
Jason Kirk (SBNation): Belk Bowl vs NC State
Brad Crawford (Saturday Down South): Belk Bowl vs NC State
College Sports Madness: Citrus Bowl vs Michigan State (still not paying attention)
CollegeFootballNews.com: Independence Bowl vs Miami (side note: these guys project no SEC team available for the Birmingham Bowl)
Sporting News: Outback Bowl vs Michigan
Tampa Bay Times: Liberty Bowl vs WVU
Bleacher Report (Bryan Fischer): Liberty Bowl vs WVU
Phil Steele: Music City Bowl vs Arizona State (can't see this happening, as the Big 10 has lots of eligible teams)
Sports Illustrated: Gator Bowl vs Northwestern
Fox Sports: Music City Bowl vs Penn State
ESPN SEC Blog: Music City Bowl
Athlon Sports: Belk Bowl vs Virginia Tech
SatrudayBlitz.com: Gator Bowl vs Duke
USA Today: Texas Bowl vs WVU

 

[Shamoan]

outback citrus or gator would be good seasons.

 

[aTotal360]

Any bowl in Flarda is fine with me.

 

[kired]

My updated projections... I changed a couple of records from last week, but kept the same bowls. I don't think Missouri makes it, Kentucky is iffy vs. Louisville, and Auburn losing to Georgia should eliminate any talk of us to Birmingham (unless somehow Bama ends up being the only SEC team in the big 6 bowls). I feel like this Saturday may decide whether MSU / Arkansas goes to Nashville / Memphis (unless UM finishes 7-5 and they go to Memphis).

Bama......11-1.....CFP
Florida.....10-2.....NY day
LSU.........8-3......Citrus
Georgia....9-3.....Outback
Tx A&M....8-4......Texas
Tenn........8-4.....Belk
MSU.........8-4....Music City
UM...........8-4....Taxslayer
Ark..........8-4.....Liberty
Auburn.....6-6.....Birmingham
Kentucky..6-6.....Indy

 

[Utah_Chaney]

Two solid wins to finish out the season will say a tremendous amount about which bowl we will be playing in. There's still a lot of football left, and the standings are still going to shift. Just depends on if we're moving up or down.

All the Florida bowls would be decent. Might start working on making some plans to get back down south.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Am I missing the Gator Bowl?

 

[DawgatAuburn]

It's amazing how unclear it is.

As the top and the bottom get a little clearer, the murky middle just gets more confusing.

OFFICIALLY HOME FOR THE HOLIDAYS (1)
South Carolina lost their seventh game.
Games left: Citadel, Clemson
Best Case: Spoiler

JUST DECIDE ALREADY (3)
Vandy beat Kentucky, which could take Kentucky out of the bowl picture while still not getting Vandy to bowl eligibility. Missouri somehow managed to right their ship enough to beat BYU. Can any of them get to six wins?

Missouri is 5-5
Games left: Tennessee, at Arkansas

Vandy is 4-6
Games left: TAMU, at Tennessee

Kentucky is 4-6
Games left: Charlotte, Louisville

JUST A MATTER OF TIME (1)
Auburn is going to beat Idaho to get to 6-5, but will then get destroyed by Alabama. Auburn would be more attractive than any of the three listed above, but less so than any listed below.

THE ELITE (2)
Bama is headed to the CFP. Deal with it.
Games left: Charleston Southern, at Auburn, Florida in the SECCG

New Year’s 6 Bowls: Florida but they really need to beat FSU to feel secure about that.
Games left: Florida Atlantic, FSU, Bama in the SECCG

THE REST OF US (7)
LSU, MSU, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Tennessee and UGA are the teams left. We all stand to benefit by Florida being in a NY6 game.

LSU: 7-2
Games left: at Ole Miss, TAMU (remember they had a rainout)

MSU: 7-3
Games left: at Arkansas, Ole Miss

Ole Miss: 7-3
Games left: LSU, at MSU

TAMU: 7-3
Games left: at Vandy, at LSU

Arkansas: 6-4
Games left: MSU, Missouri

Tennessee: 6-4
Game left: at Missouri, Vandy

Georgia: 7-3
Games left: Georgia Southern, at Georgia Tech

One of those teams is going to the Citrus Bowl, unless the loser of the SECCG gets left out of the NY6 games. If that’s the case, then Florida will be in the Citrus and one of these seven teams will be going to the Birmingham Bowl. Otherwise there are seven teams for seven games. I’m going to presume for now that Florida would be the SECCG game loser and would be in the NY6.

Citrus: Maybe four teams make sense here. If LSU at least splits their last two I think they are the pick here. Lose them both and it opens the door for someone else.

Outback, Gator, Texas, Music City, Belk and Liberty:

Ordered by payout ($ in millions)
Outback ($3.5) – State because I am thinking positively that we will be 9-3
Texas ($3) – TAMU
Gator ($2.75) – Tennessee
MCB ($2.75) – Ole Miss
Belk ($1.7) - Arkansas
Liberty ($1.4375) - Georgia

B-ham ($1.1) - Auburn

Indy has last pick of teams left ($1.2) - Missouri if they pull off a miracle, otherwise unfilled.

Here’s hypothetical guess of what might happen if the SEC only has one in the NY6, because that would almost certainly put Florida in the Citrus.

CFP	Bama	Bama
NY6	Florida	NONE
Citrus	LSU	Florida
Outback	State	Tennessee
Texas	TAMU	LSU
Gator	Tennessee	Arkansas
MCB	Ole Miss	TAMU
Belk	Arkansas	MSU
Liberty	Georgia	Ole Miss
Birmingham	Auburn	Georgia
Independence		Auburn

<tbody>
</tbody>

State, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas and TAMU still have a lot to play for. We need some W’s to secure a more desirable bowl location.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

It's the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. With commericals by Dale Jr.

 

[00Dawg]

There will be another SEC team in the NY6 unless Bama doesn't make the playoff. The Sugar Bowl contractually gets the next highest-ranked SEC team not in the playoff (or the champion if it's not that team).

That makes it suck extra hard that we lost so badly to Bama while LSU collapses and UF looks almost certain to drop the FSU game and SECCG.....that could've been us even at 9-3. Now it would take a miracle. We'll need UM or TAMU to beat LSU, and UF to struggle with FAU and be destroyed in their last two games.

 

[kired]

Tenn went to the gator bowl last year - surely they wouldn't go two years in a row. And I have a hard time believing Georgia goes to one of the less prestigious bowls with a likely 9-3 record.

Main thing for us should be to win vs Arkansas and that should keep us out of Memphis. If Arkansas wins the next two they will be on a hot streak and one of the more desirable teams - they would jump a bunch of us.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

But we went to Memphis 2 years ago. I would think that should keep us out of Liberty this year no matter what. We have been to Jacksonville twice in the past 5 years. So that might keep us out of Gator. To me, it's Outback if we win out and Texas/Belk/Music City if we lose 1 more. Lose out and we might be looking at Birmingham.

 

[patdog]

To me, it's Outback if we win out and Texas/Belk/Music City if we lose 1 more. Lose out and we might be looking at Birmingham.

I think Texas/Outback if we win out, Music City/Liberty/Texas if we go 1-1, and Birmingham/Liberty if we lose out.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I can't decide on the Texas Bowl. You know how that whole state is about everything Texas related. Would they be just as happy keeping TAMU there for that game, or would they rather have an out of state team come in, freeing up TAMU to slot in the Gator or something like that. It's had a Texas team in if six of its nine years, so I keep leaning toward yes. But I would have to think that either LSU or Arkansas (who went there last year) would also be great fits for them if they can somehow bear the thought of not having TAMU. And I know the SEC does that placement, but I'm sure the bowls weigh in.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I think Texas/Outback if we win out, Music City/Liberty/Texas if we go 1-1, and Birmingham/Liberty if we lose out.

If a second SEC team is contracted to the Sugar, then I don't think even losing out would relegate us to Birmingham. Even at 7-5 and a three game losing streak, we'd be more attractive than Auburn, unless they miraculously find a way to beat Bama, which isn't going to happen. I don't see any way Auburn goes anywhere other than Birmingham.

 

[00Dawg]

Frankly, I keep trying this exercise...

and I end up with reasons to scrap each list.
Giving it the old college try, with the following assumptions:
1. No team will be sent to a bowl it has visited in the last two years.
2. UGA, Tennessee, LSU, and State win out.
3. TAMU and Arkansas each get one more win.
4. UF hangs tough enough to get the Sugar Bowl bid (if LSU passes them in the rankings, just swap them in to the Citrus)

Citrus Bowl: LSU
Outback: State
Texas: TAMU
Gator: Arkansas
MCB: UGA
Belk: Tennessee
Liberty: UM

How did I arrive at this? Well, the Gator can't take UGA or UT, the Texas Bowl is probably salivating at the thought of TAMU vs Texas Tech, the Belk Bowl would love to have an SEC East team but can't take UGA, and UGA hasn't been to the Music City Bowl in 14 years.
If Jim McVay at the Outback Bowl still has pull, I'd say swap our spot with Tennessee's.

 

[FQDawg]

FWIW, Fox Sports has as playing Penn State in Nashville...

http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...tate-buckeyes-college-football-playoff-111715

 

[00Dawg]

Thanks. I've added them to the list.

 

[LawDawg97]

Thanks for updating this.

Still a lot of football left, but I would rather go to Nashville and watch us against a Penn State rather than a Gator bowl against Duke or Northwestern again. A Franklin return to Nashville would be interesting.

 

[RocketDawg]

Yeah, I agree. And a lot more State fans would make the trip too. And who wants to play Duke in FB? Kinda like playing Wake Forest. But we did that didn't we .....

 

[BulldogBlitz]

I didn't make the Gator Bowl, but last year in the long trek to the Orange Bowl i zigged and zagged all the way through florida. jacksonville was an enjoyable evening, great afternoon hiking in a park outside of there too. Definitely appreciated not having to freeze my a$$ off. would definitely like to visit there again. sushi was awesome.

 

[Shooter McGavin.sixpack]

If LSU and Florida finish 10-2/11-2 respectively, I think both are a good candidates for a NY6 bowl. If we win out, maybe we could sneak into the Citrus Bowl but UGA would probably be 9-3 also. I doubt we would get the nod over them, but you never know.