UK #2 in Kenpom

May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
The mid majors are in some ways tough to evaluate given the lack of opportunities for Quad 1 wins.

IMO what they should do?

Get rid of the committee period.

I'm okay with giving the Zags the overall 1 seed. Based on metrics, they probably are good enough to warrant it but if not most will agree they are somewhere around the top.

But UK is 2nd in Kenpom..........yet 6th overall in the committees eyes. And honestly to me, there's something not right about that.

We'd be favored over Kansas and Baylor on a neutral court. Yet we are behind them on a seed line.
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
Well that was before UKs impressive showing v Bama. I think we are a 1 seed again at the present moment over KU.

There should be a weekly update on this stuff.

So teams know exactly where they stand.

If Lunardi can update his daily, the NCAA can update theirs. They don't have to do a complete bracket. Just maybe the first 16 or so.
 

HerrosHeroes

Heisman
Aug 16, 2018
27,234
38,040
0
The mid majors are in some ways tough to evaluate given the lack of opportunities for Quad 1 wins.

IMO what they should do?

Get rid of the committee period.

I'm okay with giving the Zags the overall 1 seed. Based on metrics, they probably are good enough to warrant it but if not most will agree they are somewhere around the top.

But UK is 2nd in Kenpom..........yet 6th overall in the committees eyes. And honestly to me, there's something not right about that.

We'd be favored over Kansas and Baylor on a neutral court. Yet we are behind them on a seed line.
UK is also #3 in the NET Rankings which is a huge metric the NCAAT committee will utilize:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
 

HerrosHeroes

Heisman
Aug 16, 2018
27,234
38,040
0
There should be a weekly update on this stuff.

So teams know exactly where they stand.

If Lunardi can update his daily, the NCAA can update theirs. They don't have to do a complete bracket. Just maybe the first 16 or so.
They will not give UK a #1 seed unless it is super obvious. Thats why UK will need to win out and win the SECT to get one.
They will most certainly screw Kentucky a seed line if they think they can get away with it. It has happened before.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
51,380
72,296
113
The mid majors are in some ways tough to evaluate given the lack of opportunities for Quad 1 wins.

IMO what they should do?

Get rid of the committee period.

I'm okay with giving the Zags the overall 1 seed. Based on metrics, they probably are good enough to warrant it but if not most will agree they are somewhere around the top.

But UK is 2nd in Kenpom..........yet 6th overall in the committees eyes. And honestly to me, there's something not right about that.

We'd be favored over Kansas and Baylor on a neutral court. Yet we are behind them on a seed line.
It’s quite obvious to me that the committee uses metrics for some teams, but quad 1 victories for others.

You can't put KU as a 1 based on quad 1 victories, but turn around and give Gonzaga the overall 1.
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
UK is also #3 in the NET Rankings which is a huge metric the NCAAT committee will utilize:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

Yep. And the committee guy is basically like well we used NET but it's not the end all be all in things.

It's like they want to hold onto this power of being able to seed teams however the heck they feel. What's important to one guy in the room could be vastly different than what's important to another person in the room.

Some point in the future, this will be out of the committee's hands IMO.
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
It’s quite obvious to me that the committee uses metrics for some teams, but quad 1 victories for others.

You can't put KU as a 1 based on quad 1 victories, but turn around and give Gonzaga the overall 1.

Yep. But then the issue becomes things like opportunities. Like does KU have more Quad 1 wins because they are a better team or does KU have more Quad 1 wins because they had more opportunities than other teams to get those wins? That's always the issue with the Gonzagas and Houstons of the world.

It's also why UK has been seeded slightly worse in seasons past then they deserved. Cause the SEC was so poor UK had less opportuntiies for Quad 1 wins.

But yeah it's different rules for different teams. Power conferences it's perfectly fine for them to use Quad 1 wins but for teams that don't play those games, it's like what do you really do.

It's why in the bracket matrix the biggest differences between people guessing seeding? Comes from mid majors. It doesn't seem like anyone has a real grasp on them. And it's also why the get vastly misseeded. Not just over but under as well.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
51,380
72,296
113
Crazy isn't it Jeff? That said UK still has 3 more shots at Quad 1 wins with LSU, Arkansas and UF.
I think it’s important that Cal and this team give everything they have to get a 1 seed. This year, it almost guarantees an E8 appearance as there isn't a 4 seed that can beat this UK team.

Cal showed how bad he wants it yesterday, you could see it on his face when he went nose to nose with Pat Adams.
 
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HerrosHeroes

Heisman
Aug 16, 2018
27,234
38,040
0
Yep. But then the issue becomes things like opportunities. Like does KU have more Quad 1 wins because they are a better team or does KU have more Quad 1 wins because they had more opportunities than other teams to get those wins? That's always the issue with the Gonzagas and Houstons of the world.

It's also why UK has been seeded slightly worse in seasons past then they deserved. Cause the SEC was so poor UK had less opportuntiies for Quad 1 wins.

But yeah it's different rules for different teams. Power conferences it's perfectly fine for them to use Quad 1 wins but for teams that don't play those games, it's like what do you really do.

It's why in the bracket matrix the biggest differences between people guessing seeding? Comes from mid majors. It doesn't seem like anyone has a real grasp on them. And it's also why the get vastly misseeded. Not just over but under as well.
This is why Ws and Ls as well as margin of victory should be considered more than it probably is currently.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
51,380
72,296
113
Yep. But then the issue becomes things like opportunities. Like does KU have more Quad 1 wins because they are a better team or does KU have more Quad 1 wins because they had more opportunities than other teams to get those wins? That's always the issue with the Gonzagas and Houstons of the world.

It's also why UK has been seeded slightly worse in seasons past then they deserved. Cause the SEC was so poor UK had less opportuntiies for Quad 1 wins.

But yeah it's different rules for different teams. Power conferences it's perfectly fine for them to use Quad 1 wins but for teams that don't play those games, it's like what do you really do.

It's why in the bracket matrix the biggest differences between people guessing seeding? Comes from mid majors. It doesn't seem like anyone has a real grasp on them. And it's also why the get vastly misseeded. Not just over but under as well.
I hate the Quad system. I think there is some value in it, but when @ St Louis is treated the same as a win at KU, that’s a problem.

Also, the BIG12 is loaded with a bunch of middle of the road teams. They aren't good enough to beat KU, but they are still Q1 wins. KSU, ISU, Okl, Okl state, Texas, TCU etc…

There are some big flaws in the metrics and the quad system. In my ooinion, SOS is not weighted heavily enough in the metrics.
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
This is why Ws and Ls as well as margin of victory should be considered more than it probably is currently.

I would be okay with them taking a metric (or even better an average of several metrics) and whatever that ranking is.......seed them according.

At the very least, teams would know going into the season what's being used and they would know exactly where they stand on a daily basis.
 
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Padsfs07

All-Conference
Jan 19, 2013
3,954
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The mid majors are in some ways tough to evaluate given the lack of opportunities for Quad 1 wins.


It's not hard really. The way Gonzaga schedules today, they should be capped as a 2 seed. We play just as many tough OOC games each year, then have to go in conference for 7-8 quad 1 games a year. If they want to justify a 1 seed, they should have 7-8 tough games all through November and December.

But with the way it is, there is no point in doing that. All they have to do is put up a winning record in their 5-6 tough OOC games, then cruise in conference play. This year they went 3-2 in those games. Last year, they went 5-0. In 19/20, they went 5-1. While in 18/19, they went 5-2. In 17/18, they went 4-3. The most recent 4 seasons garnered them a 1 seed each year (covid year just a prediction)
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
I hate the Quad system. I think there is some value in it, but when @ St Louis is treated the same as a win at KU, that’s a problem.

Also, the BIG12 is loaded with a bunch of middle of the road teams. They aren't good enough to beat KU, but they are still Q1 wins. KSU, ISU, Okl, Okl state, Texas, TCU etc…

There are some big flaws in the metrics and the quad system. In my ooinion, SOS is not weighted heavily enough in the metrics.

The good news is I do believe they look further into it. Like the Quad system is useful for separating things out

But if Team A is 5-0 in Quad 1 games and it's against all top 10 competition vs Team B is 5-0 in Quad 1 games but towards the bottom of Quad 1, I'd like to think they factor that in.

The team sheets that get handed out break down each game by NET ranking.

When I do my seeding, I look at Quads but then I also look at the team sheets. Because some of the resumes are vastly different than looking at just a blanket Quad record.
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
It's not hard really. The way Gonzaga schedules today, they should be capped as a 2 seed. We play just as many tough OOC games each year, then have to go in conference for 7-8 quad 1 games a year. If they want to justify a 1 seed, they should have 7-8 tough games all through November and December.

But with the way it is, there is no point in doing that. All they have to do is put up a winning record in their 5-6 tough OOC games, then cruise in conference play. This year they went 3-2 in those games. Last year, they went 5-0. In 19/20, they went 5-1. While in 18/19, they went 5-2. In 17/18, they went 4-3. The most recent 4 seasons garnered them a 1 seed each year (covid year just a prediction)

I don't necessarily agree that teams should be capped at a certain seed level. FWIW Gonzaga has control of their OOC schedule but not their in conference schedule. They did go out last few years and schedule as many tough opponents as possible.

The problem with the capping is metrics pretty much had Gonzaga and Baylor as 1A and 1B last season. I don't think you can fairly give a team like Gonzaga had last season say a 2 or 3 seed when they were clearly one of the best teams in the nation.
 
May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
And this is the problem I have with UK

We'd be favored over Kansas on a neutral court.
We'd be favored over Baylor on a neutral court.
We'd be favored over Auburn on a neutral court.

It would basically be a pick em vs Arizona.

Only team we'd be an underdog against is Gonzaga.

Which IMO justifies their spot and also says to me that maybe we should be higher.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
51,380
72,296
113
The good news is I do believe they look further into it. Like the Quad system is useful for separating things out

But if Team A is 5-0 in Quad 1 games and it's against all top 10 competition vs Team B is 5-0 in Quad 1 games but towards the bottom of Quad 1, I'd like to think they factor that in.

The team sheets that get handed out break down each game by NET ranking.

When I do my seeding, I look at Quads but then I also look at the team sheets. Because some of the resumes are vastly different than looking at just a blanket Quad record.
They definitely didn't do a deep dive when they set the preliminary seeds yesterday. How you put UK as KU's 2 is beyond me. It comes down to UK losing at Tennessee. They treated it like it was a bad loss.

Seems like our losses are more damaging than other teams losses.
 

howercat

All-Conference
Aug 14, 2007
6,656
4,572
113
They will not give UK a #1 seed unless it is super obvious. Thats why UK will need to win out and win the SECT to get one.
They will most certainly screw Kentucky a seed line if they think they can get away with it. It has happened before.
Uk will get the murderers row in the ncaat, as usual. Meanwhile dook will get a cakewalk. Mark it down.
 
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FitchandMurray29

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Dec 11, 2021
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The quad 1 stuff is a little out of control. Baylor and Kansas are crushing it in part because every team in the Big 12 is in the top 75 of the NET. Baylor goes to 13-13 not good at all Oklahoma State on Monday night…quad 1 win baby! Kansas added another quad 1 yesterday at a West Virginia team who may be the worst quad 1 offense I’ve ever seen. In my opinion the ranking of Kansas/Baylor 4/5 right now is just an easy way for the committee to say the Big12 winner is getting a 1 seed. As an aside, the dude who was speaking on the bracket preview show was beyond terrible.
 

FitchandMurray29

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Dec 11, 2021
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Thing I found to be a joke was giving Nova games in Philly as a 3 seed.

So because they didn't play 3 home games at that place, they can play there in the tournament and have an advantage over say a 2 seed and 1 seed in that region.

unreal
That’s also a very real possibility given where Villanova is on the seed list now, geographic seeding by seed line, and seeding rules for the top 16 in the same conference. I would be livid if we have to play them in Philly. I’m guessing the committee finds a way to justify sending them to Chicago instead so they don’t have to hear the pushback.
 

bbnkat02

Heisman
Nov 14, 2017
47,700
71,064
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That’s also a very real possibility given where Villanova is on the seed list now, geographic seeding by seed line, and seeding rules for the top 16 in the same conference. I would be livid if we have to play them in Philly. I’m guessing the committee finds a way to justify sending them to Chicago instead so they don’t have to hear the pushback.
No way you should have double digit losses and get or play in your HOMETOWN. Can you imagine Louisville being a site and a double digit losss UK getting to play an hour from home? People would go ballistic.
 
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May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
That’s also a very real possibility given where Villanova is on the seed list now, geographic seeding by seed line, and seeding rules for the top 16 in the same conference. I would be livid if we have to play them in Philly. I’m guessing the committee finds a way to justify sending them to Chicago instead so they don’t have to hear the pushback.

That's where they put them on the bracket reveal yesterday and someone asked them about it and the committee member said the rules state as long as they don't play 3 or more games at a venue, they are allowed to be there.

Which fine rules are rules but what happened to protecting the 1 and 2 seeds to not be at a disadvantage lol.

EAST REGION (PHILADELPHIA)
4. Kansas
6. Kentucky
9. Villanova
13. Wisconsin

How on earth is this fair to UK or KU? lol
 
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Jan 3, 2003
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It’s quite obvious to me that the committee uses metrics for some teams, but quad 1 victories for others.

You can't put KU as a 1 based on quad 1 victories, but turn around and give Gonzaga the overall 1.
There is no always right method, so they should look at all of the valid ways, metrics, quad 1, even polls.
 

KA4Prez_rivals78700

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Dec 8, 2003
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Duke will be the #2 in Philadelphia (100%, no doubt in my mind) and that is where the second team from the West (Gonzaga or Arizona) will be the #1. It would be a 95% home crowd for Duke against a team traveling 1500+ miles.

I've said it for weeks. The WHOLE bracket should root for Arizona or Gonzaga to FALL out of the 1-line and put them in the same region as 1/2. However, that won't happen and it will mess up the WHOLE bracket.
 
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irishcat1965

Heisman
Apr 22, 2012
21,086
45,391
113
As it stands now, UK should be the last one seed. It’s a total joke Kansas or Baylor is ahead of us. The committee is totally contradictory with what metrics they use to seed teams. And it’s laughable they had Nova playing in the Philly regional as a three seed.
 

kyjeff1

Heisman
Sep 8, 2012
51,380
72,296
113
There is no always right method, so they should look at all of the valid ways, metrics, quad 1, even polls.
Then treat each team that way. When you look at UK's ratings in NET and KP and you look at UK's dominant win h2h @ KU, how do you put KU as a 1 and UK as their 2?

You know what they looked at? UK's loss at Tennessee.
 
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May 27, 2007
31,951
25,094
113
Duke will be the #2 in Philadelphia (100%, no doubt in my mind) and that is where the second team from the West (Gonzaga or Arizona) will be the #1. It would be a 95% home crowd for Duke against a team traveling 1500+ miles.

I've said it for weeks. The WHOLE bracket should root for Arizona or Gonzaga to FALL out of the 1-line and put them in the same region as 1/2. However, that won't happen and it will mess up the WHOLE bracket.

I'm not 100% certain the last West team on the 1 seed line would go East. In the bracket reveal, Kansas ended going East.

It just depends where on that seed line you are. And given the geography of the teams fighting on that line it would seem to me that the last 1 seed is the one that will be heading East this season.
 
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KA4Prez_rivals78700

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Dec 8, 2003
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It depends. Most definitely Kentucky/Kansas will end up in Chicago. One of the two. Maybe in the same bracket. Auburn will go to San Antonio. The wild card is the East region. Maybe they put Arizona in Chicago, but even if it's Kentucky or Kansas as the #2 there, that's a big disadvantage for Arizona.
 
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