Bowl Projections: Week 10

[00Dawg]

Brett McMurphy (ESPN): Citrus Bowl vs Michigan State
Mark Schlabach (ESPN): Outback Bowl vs Michigan
Tampa Bay Times: Birmingham Bowl vs Memphis
Jerry Palm (CBS): Gator Bowl vs North Carolina
Jason Kirk (SBNation): Birmingham Bowl vs Memphis
Brad Crawford (Saturday Down South): Belk Bowl vs North Carolina
College Sports Madness: Citrus Bowl vs Minnesota (still not paying attention)
CollegeFootballNews.com: Music City Bowl vs Pitt (side note: these guys haven't noticed Auburn will be bowl eligible)
Sporting News: Liberty Bowl vs West Virginia
Bleacher Report (Bryan Fischer): Birmingham Bowl vs Memphis
Sports Illustrated: Gator Bowl vs Wisconsin
Phil Steele: Citrus Bowl vs Michigan State
Athlon Sports: Belk Bowl vs North Carolina
USA Today: Texas Bowl vs West Virginia
ESPN SEC Blog: Citrus Bowl
Bleacher Report (Barrett Sallee): Citrus Bowl (I'm as surprised as you....picks us to go 9-3)

Not Yet Updated:
Orlando Sentinel (behind schedule)


General commentary:
There appear to be three strings of thought at this point.
One is that we'll lose out, and a suddenly resurgent Auburn will be picked above us even though we beat them at their place.
Another is that we're a 9 or 10-win team who'll enjoy a nice bowl in sunny Florida.
The other one is just ignorance of bowls in general. Having tried my hand at predicting bowls, I know it's a steep learning curve, but some of these guys are getting paid to do poor work.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

The first thought after a weekend like this past one was that should clear the bowl picture up. I think it provided a little clarity but there are still lots of key matchups to be played that will tell the tale for many teams. But those guys picking us to Birmingham have lost their minds. Even if we lose out, we’ll be slotted ahead of Kentucky and thus probably the floor for us is the Liberty (again, using payout as the ranking for the group of six bowls the SEC places teams into).



THE DEAD
Vandy and SC both put up great fights, but great fight losses don’t get you to Shreveport. Both now have six losses, so the wiggle room is officially gone. No chance either of them wins out. No chance for a bowl game.

Missouri is a total mess on the field and off. They need two wins to be bowl eligible but you have to play to win. There have been lots of predictable jokes about them not playing that much all year, but whether they play or not they are not going to get to six wins. Welcome to the dead category Mizzou.

THE NEWLY RESUSCITATED
Arkansas got a huge win to get to five wins and I’m giving them the Missouri win to make them bowl eligible. The win over Ole Miss thrusts them into the battle for positioning with the rest of us. Should they beat either LSU or us, they would be a pretty attractive candidate. Beat us both and the look REAL good.

Auburn is also now looking at a pretty certain six with a chance at 7-5 if they can beat UGA. What a difference a week makes. #JeremyForHeisman.

THE ELITE
Bama is headed to the CFP. At least until we beat them.

New Year’s 6 Bowls: LSU and Florida

THE REST OF US
Citrus: Who wants this? I think this is the most interesting bowl of them all right now. MSU, Ole Miss, TAMU and Tennessee can all make a case for this spot. Call it the ghost of Peyton Manning, but I’m putting Tennessee in the Citrus for now, as they will have a lot of momentum to end the season (by beating some bad teams), and they generally travel like crazy.

Outback, Gator, Texas, Music City, Belk and Liberty: MSU, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Auburn, UGA and Kentucky are all in play.

I think you have to start at the bottom and work up here. Kentucky is the weakest team here. Drop them out of these six games and put then in Birmingham. Next up would be Georgia and Auburn. Georgia went to the Belk last year, so put them in Memphis and slot Auburn in Charlotte so they can wax poetic about being in Cam Newton’s city for a couple of weeks.

That leaves State, Ole Miss, TAMU and Arkansas. Good luck predicting how each of them will finish up. Just when you think you have it figured out….Arkansas wins at Ole Miss…..Auburn wins at TAMU….MSU beats Alaba…...oh wait. Not yet.

Ordered by payout ($ in millions)
Outback ($3.5) - Egg Bowl winner
Texas ($3) - TAMU
Gator ($2.75) - Ole Miss if they lose the Egg Bowl, otherwise Arkansas
MCB ($2.75) - Mississippi State if they lose the Egg Bowl, otherwise Arkansas
Belk ($1.7) - Auburn
Liberty ($1.4375) - Georgia

B-ham ($1.1) - Kentucky

Indy has last pick of teams left ($1.2) - Missouri if they pull off a miracle, otherwise unfilled.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

Two of those have us in the Birmingham Bowl? How is that even possible? Even if we lose out and go 7-5, we will still be in that "group of 6". Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think it's even possible for a B-ham bowl.

ETA: After looking at it, if we end up 7-5 and the remainder of my predictions are correct, there is still a chance we could be left out of the group of 6. There will be a lot of (8-4), (7-5) teams at the end of this season. Somebody will be left out. But it doesn't matter because we will not lose out.

 

[00Dawg]

Let's assume UF and LSU are in the NY6 (I think the Gators may miss out if they lose to FSU), and Bama in the playoff. If we're 9-3 with a close loss to Bama, will the Citrus pass us over?

 

[patdog]

Florida won't make a NY6 bowl. They'll finish 9-3. Citrus will take either Florida or Tennessee, with the Outback taking the other.

Playoff - Bama
NY6 - LSU
Citrus - UF/UT

Outback - UF/UT
Texas ($3) - Egg Bowl winner
Gator ($2.75) - Auburn/Georgia winner
MCB ($2.75) - Egg Bowl loser
Belk ($1.7) - Auburn/Georgia loser
Liberty ($1.4375) - Texas A&M

Birmingham - Arkansas
Indy - Kentucky (if they get eligible)

 

[Bulldogg31]

So the payouts matter? My understanding is that all the money from all bowls is thrown in the SEC pot and divided amongst the 14 teams.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

Having tried my hand at predicting bowls, I know it's a steep learning curve, but some of these guys are getting paid to do poor work.

Second best job to predicting the weather.

 

[hullabaloodog]

15 shares

So the payouts matter? My understanding is that all the money from all bowls is thrown in the SEC pot and divided amongst the 14 teams.

I think the money from each bowl game is split into 15 shares. 13 shares (one for every other team in the SEC) + 2 shares for the team in that bowl.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

They won't take Tennessee if there is another option with a better record. Tennessee can't finish any higher than 8-4. The Citrus takes the next best record after the playoffs and New Years 6 bowls. Unless there are no 10-2 or 9-3 teams left and they have to pick an 8-4 team.

Here's my predictions:

Alabama (11-1) Playoff
Florida (11-1) Sugar
LSU (9-2) Citrus

MSU (9-3) Outback (next best record, went to Liberty Music City and Gator twice in the past 5 years)
UT (8-4) Belk (went to Gator in 14 and Music City in 10)
A&M (8-4) Texas Bowl (went to Liberty last year)
Ole Miss (8-4) Gator (went to Music City in 13)
Auburn (7-5) Liberty (went to Outback last year)
Georgia (7-5) Music City (Outback in 11, Citrus in 12, Gator in 13, Belk in 14)

Kentucky (6-6) BHAM
Arkansas (6-6) Indy

 

[patdog]

It's not quite that simple.

The SEC doesn't split its bowl revenue equally - it uses a formulaic procedure:

[The SEC] distribution model: For bowl games with receipts of $4,000,000 - $5,999,999, the participating team retains $1.475 million (Ole Miss), plus a travel allowance determined by SEC. For bowl games with receipts of $6 million or more, the participating team receives $2 million (Alabama and Mississippi State), plus a travel allowance determined by the SEC. If an SEC team makes it to the championship game, it receives another $2.1 million, plus travel allowance. The remainder of the revenue from these bowls is divided 15 ways – one share for each of the 14 SEC teams and one share for the conference office. There’s also a distribution method for bowls with lower payouts, but I’m not covering that here.​

- source: The Business of College Sports: College Football Playoff Conference Payouts by Kristi Dosh.​

Link

 

[olblue.sixpack]

The first thought after a weekend like this past one was that should clear the bowl picture up. I think it provided a little clarity but there are still lots of key matchups to be played that will tell the tale for many teams. But those guys picking us to Birmingham have lost their minds. Even if we lose out, we’ll be slotted ahead of Kentucky and thus probably the floor for us is the Liberty (again, using payout as the ranking for the group of six bowls the SEC places teams into).



THE DEAD
Vandy and SC both put up great fights, but great fight losses don’t get you to Shreveport. Both now have six losses, so the wiggle room is officially gone. No chance either of them wins out. No chance for a bowl game.

Missouri is a total mess on the field and off.They need two wins to be bowl eligible but you have to play to win. There have been lots of predictable jokes about them not playing that much all year, but whether they play or not they are not going to get to six wins. Welcome to the dead category Mizzou.

THE NEWLY RESUSCITATED
Arkansas got a huge win to get to five wins and I’m giving them the Missouri win to make them bowl eligible. The win over Ole Miss thrusts them into the battle for positioning with the rest of us. Should they beat either LSU or us, they would be a pretty attractive candidate. Beat us both and the look REAL good.

Auburn is also now looking at a pretty certain six with a chance at 7-5 if they can beat UGA. What a difference a week makes. #JeremyForHeisman.

THE ELITE
Bama is headed to the CFP. At least until we beat them.

New Year’s 6 Bowls: LSU and Florida

THE REST OF US
Citrus: Who wants this? I think this is the most interesting bowl of them all right now. MSU, Ole Miss, TAMU and Tennessee can all make a case for this spot. Call it the ghost of Peyton Manning, but I’m putting Tennessee in the Citrus for now, as they will have a lot of momentum to end the season (by beating some bad teams), and they generally travel like crazy.

Outback, Gator, Texas, Music City, Belk and Liberty: MSU, Ole Miss, TAMU, Arkansas, Auburn, UGA and Kentucky are all in play.

I think you have to start at the bottom and work up here. Kentucky is the weakest team here. Drop them out of these six games and put then in Birmingham. Next up would be Georgia and Auburn. Georgia went to the Belk last year, so put them in Memphis and slot Auburn in Charlotte so they can wax poetic about being in Cam Newton’s city for a couple of weeks.

That leaves State, Ole Miss, TAMU and Arkansas. Good luck predicting how each of them will finish up. Just when you think you have it figured out….Arkansas wins at Ole Miss…..Auburn wins at TAMU….MSU beats Alaba…...oh wait. Not yet.

Ordered by payout ($ in millions)
Outback ($3.5) - Egg Bowl winner
Texas ($3) - TAMU
Gator ($2.75) - Ole Miss if they lose the Egg Bowl, otherwise Arkansas
MCB ($2.75) - Mississippi State if they lose the Egg Bowl, otherwise Arkansas
Belk ($1.7) - Auburn
Liberty ($1.4375) - Georgia

B-ham ($1.1) - Kentucky

Indy has last pick of teams left ($1.2) - Missouri if they pull off a miracle, otherwise unfilled.

Kentucky is a train wreck. They have officially played their way into underdog status at Vandy. There is angst in the locker room which will only get worse when they go with their freshman QB. If they lose to Vandy, its officially basketball season and they will likely fold like a cheap suit when they face Louisville at home trying to get bowl eligible. Its a sad state for any program when a football game with Vandy is a defining moment, but it applies here.

It took longer than expected, but "Coach Stooper" is starting to gain some traction among the BBN.

 

[tenureplan]

What does the SEC office do with their cut?

 

[patdog]

Every year, it's the same story. In September, people talk about how Kentucky is "much improved" this year. By the end of October, they start to realize they're just the same old Kentucky they've always been. I do think they have about a 50-50 chance of beating either Vandy or Louisville and getting bowl eligible. But they are a pretty bad team.

 

[Go Budaw]

Florida won't make a NY6 bowl. They'll finish 9-3.

So you're predicting Florida will lose to both South Carolina and FSU? That's interesting. Care to elaborate?

 

[patdog]

I 17ed up the basic premise of my whole projection by not checking Florida's record. Damn, how can a team that bad still be undefeated. Looks like the SEC is going to take one more major bowl blowout loss this year.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Pat I linked that same thing last week but it doesn't explain the bowls below the Citrus. Are those divided by 16 with the SEC taking a share, the bowl team taking two and all others getting one?

 

[patdog]

Pretty sure it's the same as the big bowls, just with smaller amounts given to the participating schools. That's the way it used to be before this most recent bowl agreement last year. Google fails me on a link to the full details. The SEC has gotten pretty secretive about the way they do business.

 

[GloryDawg]

Every year, it's the same story. In September, people talk about how Kentucky is "much improved" this year. By the end of October, they start to realize they're just the same old Kentucky they've always been. I do think they have about a 50-50 chance of beating either Vandy or Louisville and getting bowl eligible. But they are a pretty bad team.

You notice it's always after they take a ball kicking from us.

 

[Shamoan]

buys golden baby giraffes from that russian guy on those commercials.

 

[hullabaloodog]

thanks

It's not quite that simple. link

I knew their was a 15th share in there somewhere. Basically conference and schools split the pot with a little extra going to the participating teams.

 

[kired]

Record & Bowl Predictions

My regular season record predictions and bowl games... I'm not sure this can even mathematically work out, but whatever.

Bama......11-1.....CFP
Florida.....10-2.....NY day
LSU.........8-3......Citrus
Tx A&M....9-3......Texas
Georgia....8-4.....Outback
Tenn........8-4.....Belk
MSU.........8-4....Music City
UM...........8-4....Taxslayer
Ark..........6-6.....Liberty
Auburn.....6-6.....Birmingham
Kentucky..6-6.....Indy

After looking over the schedules, we've certainly got the toughest November left (I didn't look at Mizzou, USC, or Vandy).

 

[00Dawg]

It's up to 3 picking Birmingham now. Weeks of middle-of-the-pack predictions have given way to more polarized selections. We're either very happy or very disappointed.