Statistical facts about Dak's stats...comparing 2014 and 2015.

[rugbdawg]

Dak's yard per passing ATTEMPT last year was 8.71. This year it is 7.56. Accordingly, Dak's QB rating has declined from 151.7 (2014) to 145.4 (2015). This debunks the theory that he has improved as a passer. Yes, he has not thrown a pick BUT it has hurt the offense and his passing efficiency in the process. Does he not trust his arm, his touch? He is afraid to take chances for whatever reason. As we have seen with Fitz, the opportunity is there. I'd argue that the difference between 2015 Dak and 2014 Dak is mental. He is certainly mentally sharper. He knows where he SHOULD throw it 95% of the time. However, he is unwilling to take a chance. This has bled over into his running attack as well.

On a side note, Dak's yard per carry has barely declined from 4.7 (2014) to 4.3 (2015). As a team, we only average .4 yards per carry less than last year. This debunks the theory that he has "lost it" as a runner.


DISCUSS (Again)

 

[ShrubDog]

So his ypa is a little more than a yard less than last year. About the length of a leg. What is the yac?

Are you comparing last years end figures to this years current figures? If so this means nothing man.

 

[aTotal360]

I don't get the "he's a MUCH improved passer this year" talk. He's taking the safer throws. That's all I'm seeing. He still can't throw a deep out. He's simply a more conservative passer. I don't see any improvement in terms of arm talent.

 

[patdog]

Actually, it does mean something. 1.15 yards per attempt is significant. And if anything, this year's current stats should be better than year-end stats because we've played all 4 of our non-conference games. I think it's pretty obvious that Dak has cut way down on taking risks throwing the ball. He cost us some towards the end of last season with some bad interceptions. He may have overcompensated a little bit and is taking too few risks this year.

 

[Lakedawg]

What are the other stats? QBR doesn't just depend on YPA. Let's see the whole picture here before we decry Dak has regressed (which I don't think he has).

 

[ShrubDog]

If he played more during the games he sat on the bench during the non-conf games his numbers would be better. So it really doesnt mean anything at this point.

And when he has his first multi int game it will cost us a W.

Espn has him #13

 

[MagnoliaHunter]

two things:
1. He hasn't played as much against the weak teams.
2. Offensive line is not as good so he doesn't have as much time to throw the longer passes.

 

[rugbdawg]

I am comparing last year's end figures to this year's current figures. And it means even MORE because we haven't played 5, FIVE, SEC games. His yards per attempt, QBR, and completion percentage should be off the charts at this point compared to last year. They are not.

 

[ShrubDog]

If he had more than 6 attempts vs troy it would be allot higher. Games like that hurt the stat sheet.

Compare the QBR and other stuff all you want but he hasnt thrown an INT yet. Have we ever had a qb go this long without an int. Our problem is not at the QB position.


If his stats were off the chart would it mean we would have beaten LSU and TXam...maybe?

Also when you have no run game its supplemented with a shorter passing game. And we have zero run game.

 

[Hankp22]

dumd thread is dumb

cheers

 

[Coast Dawg]

two things:
1. He hasn't played as much against the weak teams.
2. Offensive line is not as good so he doesn't have as much time to throw the longer passes.

3. Running back production isn't as good as last year - DBs arent having to honor or even over-commit to the run like in 2014... meaning they are in better position to defend against deeper routes.


Also, being smarter with the ball, cutting down on INT's and taking what the defense is giving you, IS being a better QB in my book

 

[pmack65]

Should be benched he sucks ****. This is second thread on here where someone has decided to negate Dak's ability as a QB, amazing. Perhaps his stats are down this year because we don't have a running game, has that been considered? If some of you pay attention he has to throw the shorter passes to use them in place of a running game. To go down field or deeper out patterns , which he has done (not sure what yall consider down field) QB's take a deeper drop usually 5 steps and the pass protection has to hold longer and based on our O-line could be another reason why his stats are down. Is Mullen protecting him some, sure why not, he's a potential high draft pick with a shot of making a boat load of money and playing in the NFL. Not sure what some of you want him to do. He's broken a bunch of MSU records , has climbed the ladder as an elite SEC QB, improved greatly as a leader, passer and field general. IMO I think hes' done a helluva job and the best QB MSU has have had.

 

[pmack65]

^^ +1

 

[patdog]

He sat on the bench a lot of our non-conference games last year too.

 

[msstate7]

He sat on the bench a lot of our non-conference games last year too.

He missed pretty much an entire game this year. Just so happens that game was probably our worst performance of the year too.

 

[rugbdawg]

The stats don't support the no running game theory. That's one of the points.

Try again. Unless a .4 yard per carry difference is significant in some way.

I understand we have played non-conference games which would inflate that stat a little. Here is the problem though. Under that theory, Dak's CURRENT stats should be inflated as well. Basically, in these first seven games, we have had a near identical rushing attack (statistically) as we did over a 13 game season last year.

He is the EXACT same passer he was last year. I still see deep balls severely over or underthrown. I still see high/low throws on screen passes. I still see balls behind Wilson/Ross. The only thing that's changed for him is his mental approach to the game. No one is saying he sucks. He simply hasn't improved significantly as people suggest.

 

[TBone.sixpack]

There are drugs that aid when having feelings of helplessness and relentless negativity.

I hope your act is just that. If not I feel sorry for you.

 

[msudawg12]

The argument that he's not taking the same amount of shots just isnt true. Here are your stats to compare

Completions of 15 yds or more thru 7 games
2014 - 40
2015 - 39 - and he only played 3 drives against troy. There was not a game he played that little in 2014 up to this point.

but he also had 5 INTs at this point in 2014. So you have essentially the same number of "big plays" but with no errors. I'll take that all day.

/argument

 

[patdog]

He missed pretty much the entire USM game last year too and a lot of the South Alabama game.

 

[rugbdawg]

Haha. That's hilarious and completely wrong. Our best QB production(statistically) in the passing game was when Dak was out. Fitzgerald was 6 of 7 for 141 yards and 2 tds. He played 3 plus quarters. Not in garbage time either. That's a better passing game in QBR terms than Dak has EVER had in his career. The difference? Fitz threw the deep ball. Nothing more, nothing less.

I just glanced at the cumulative stats and was as shocked as everyone here. I feel like we suck at running too. Stats don't support that. I feel like Dak is more deadly with his arm than last year. Again, stats don't support that.

 

[patdog]

.4 yards per rush is significant too. That's an 8% drop in our average yards per rush. This will probably get worse as the season goes on and we play tougher teams (on average) than we have played so far.

 

[msstate7]

He missed pretty much the entire USM game last year too and a lot of the South Alabama game.

'14 usm game...
Dak -- 18/26 284 yards 4 td

'14 USA game...
Dak -- 13/21 201 yards 1 td

'15 Troy...
Dak -- 3/6 74 yards 1 td

I'd say he missed more of the Troy game than the other 2. Pretty sure Dak would've raised his yards per pass in that game too

 

[msstate7]

I suppose your thesis is to go with fitz.

 

[rugbdawg]

Fair point.

nm

 

[thf24]

But he still had huge numbers in the USM game and decent ones against USA. All he got against Troy this year is a touchdown and less than 100 yards passing.

 

[BertleTheTurtle]

I could personally give two ***** whether Dak has improved from 2014. 2014 Dak and 2015 Dak are the two greatest QB years in our program's history. If we could have 2014 or 2015 Dak performance every year for the next 100 years, I'd take it and not think twice about it.

I mean what's your angle here? Try to convince the board to be down on Dak by spewing stats and proclaiming there's no way he's improved Buh Gawd! Get over yourself. This kid has single handily elevated our program to heights we've never known. Sure, he was spectacular in 2014, historically the best single performance of any player to ever wear the Maroon and White. Very difficult to repeat that. Ask Johnny Football. He's taking what the defenses give him and keeping us in games. Last year, Dak lost the Alabama game on his arm alone. He isn't losing games for us this year, rather he's making the right play and getting the ball to the best WR core in State's history and allowing his playmakers to make plays on the edge. It's just a different offense.

 

[TwelvePackSmack]

Obviously i think Dak wants to win. But i think there are 2 constant things in head this season: 1. Don't get hurt 2. The NFL.

 

[ShrubDog]

So 6 of 7 for 141 yards and 2Td's is so much better than 10 of 11 for 227 yards and 2Td's.

Come dude get the bud crumbs out of your eyes.

 

[Cousin Jeffrey]

Elijah Staley has a better QBR and yards per attempt average than Dak, too. I guess Dak should be dropped to 3rd team.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

So I'm a bit confused why this is coming up almost on a daily basis.

Is it
A. The old MSU Our Senior QB is sucking his Senior Year
B. We gotta keep digging for some stat to blame Dak for our offensive woes we perceive
C. Boredom

 

[rugbdawg]

Ha. No.

nm

 

[patdog]

Good job msudawg12. You can just look at Dak this year vs. Dak last year and tell he's a better passer. He's making better decisions and protecting the ball better. I thought part of that may be that he wasn't taking as many risks or going for as many big plays. But it's pretty apparent from your stat that he's just cut way down on the bad passes.

 

[aTotal360]

This conversation is mostly about semantics. It has all to do with with your perception of the word "passer".
Has his decision making improved? Yes.
Has his arm talent improved? Not sure.

 

[rugbdawg]

Mehhhh. Problems with that analysis:

First, and most importantly, 7 games in 2014 Dak attempted 189 passes. 7 games in 2015, Dak has attempted 225 passes. So...he attempted 16% LESS passes in 2014 and had one MORE pass of 15 yards or more.

Second, our receivers are better this year. They have the ability to run more after the catch.

Third, the level of competition has been weaker in 2015.

 

[msstate7]

Third, the level of competition has been weaker in 2015.

Not sure about that...
Usm improved
Lsu vastly improved
aTm improved
Auburn down
La Tech >= Kentucky last year

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I think that out of 127 FBS schools at least 120 of them would love to have Dak and I think that our fan base will fabricate things to complain about because we are so used to having plenty to complain about on the field. See recurring threads complaining about uniforms and multiple threads down talking the best QB to ever suit up at MSU. "Good Grief!" - Charlie Brown

PS: I should probably add the best position we have ever been in at QB in history.

 

[Shamoan]

increased completion percentage is a huge factor and dak has certainly progressed. its not some insignificant stat.

 

[121Josey]

This conversation is mostly about semantics. It has all to do with with your perception of the word "passer".
Has his decision making improved? Yes.
Has his arm talent improved? Not sure.

^^^^ THIS ^^^^ Dak knows who he is as a passer.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Mehhhh. Problems with that analysis:

First, and most importantly, 7 games in 2014 Dak attempted 189 passes. 7 games in 2015, Dak has attempted 225 passes. So...he attempted 16% LESS passes in 2014 and had one MORE pass of 15 yards or more.

Second, our receivers are better this year. They have the ability to run more after the catch.

Third, the level of competition has been weaker in 2015.

When it comes to big pass plays per game the attempts do not mean anything, or at least in that context. We are also running fewer plays per game and much less running plays. The fact is he is throwing for almost the same amount of 15+ yards in the same number of games. If you really want to get technical with explosion plays, 10+ yards rushing and 15+ yards passing, our team percentage is almost identical to last year. We had an explosive play 1.768% for every attempt last year and we are averaging an explosive play at 1.792% through this year. And don't throw out the competition played because the original post didn't care to evaluate that or his actual playing time vs weak competition this year. He played into the second half each OOC game last year. Just the first half against Northwestern and three series against Troy. You want X number of explosive plays in each game or per attempt. We are on the same pace as last year.

 

[00Dawg]

There's the key stat....

We are also running fewer plays per game and much less running plays.

We've run the ball 209 times this year.
Last year we ran the ball 340 times through the first 7 games. We're running the ball 38.5% less than last year.
We've replaced many of those carries with short passes....Wyatt loves to point this out all the time, and he's absolutely right: those are now the equivalent of runs for us.
We're so confident in Dak's accuracy and our improved receiving corps versus a crappy running game that we've gone in that direction, and hence dropped the YPA.

Personally, it's obvious to me that Dak is an improved QB. No, he's not spectacular, but he's really only had 2, maybe 3 passes in 225 attempts that even had a chance at being picked. Last year he was in double digits for bad throw by this point. The decision making and progression reads are phenomenal.
On a side note, throw out the Troy game and he's averaging over 275 YPG.