Bowl Projections: Week 7

[00Dawg]

ESPN SEC Blog: Texas Bowl
Brett McMurphy (ESPN): Belk Bowl vs NC State
Mark Schlabach (ESPN): Music City Bowl vs Minnesota
Brad Crawford (Saturday Down South): Birmingham Bowl vs East Carolina (there went what was left of this guy's credibility in my eyes)
Sporting News: Liberty Bowl vs Texas Tech
College Sports Madness: Citrus Bowl vs Nebraska (yeah, this guy's still not paying attention to all teams)
Jason Kirk (SBNation): Music City Bowl vs Louisville
Jerry Palm (CBS): Music City Bowl vs Penn State
Phil Steele: Texas Bowl vs Texas Tech
College Football News: Belk Bowl (in more detail, they have us beating a 9-win UM team to go 8-4)
Sports Illustrated: Liberty Bowl vs Oklahoma State
USA Today: Independence vs Louisville
Orlando Sentinel: Texas Bowl vs WVU (interestingly, doesn't have UM in a bowl)

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

One of the stations in Memphis had Brad Crawford on their show the week of State/Auburn. He was terrible and knew absolutely nothing about either team.

 

[Shamoan]

damn...they seem to have gotten worse after a blowout win.

 

[GloryDawg]

If were not in one of the big bowl games I sure would like to go to citrus bowl.

 

[Drebin]

Having to play Texas Tech in any bowl would be pretty much a nightmare scenario for us, I'm afraid.

 

[WayboDawg]

None of those bowl matchups are particularly interesting to me, but maybe its just because we went to the Orange Bowl last year. None the less, any bowl game is better than no bowl game, and if I had to pick one for Dak's final showing, I would probably pick the Music City Bowl. Respectable bowl, good city, great stadium, close to home. I'd like to see us in Nashville if we can't manage to backdoor in as an at large into a New Year's 6 bowl.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Updated guesses:

Vandy and SC have almost no chance. I can't get either of them above 5 wins in their best case scenarios. Arkansas is almost dead. They have 2 wins with UT-Martin coming up next week. They would need three of Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, MSU and Mizzou. Doable - but figure they lose to LSU and they need 3 of the remaining four. Auburn is on life support too. They have 4 wins with Idaho coming later. But they need one more of Arkansas, Ole Miss, TAMU, Georgia and Bama. They probably won't be favored in any of those. Arkansas-Auburn this Saturday is looking like an elimination game.

That leaves 10 teams.

Playoffs - at best, one of LSU, Bama, TAMU, and Florida; for gigs let's say Bama wins out and is in the CFP.

New Years 6 Bowls: Maybe two more of those listed above - LSU/TAMU winner and Florida

Citrus: LSU/TAMU loser

Outback, Liberty, Tax Slayer, Texas, Music City, Belk: UGA, MSU, UT, UK, and Ole Miss seem likely to be eligible. That's five teams for six games. Missouri has a punchers chance, but do they have any punchers? They have 4 wins with Vandy, MSU, BYU, UT and Arkansas. I can see 0-5, I can see 1-4, but even 2-3 requires them to win one that I don't think they will. If they get to six, I guess they are in this group, unless Auburn or Arkansas get there, in which case I think Missouri drops to Bham.
Strictly guessing:
Outback - Tennessee
Gator - UGA
Texas - Ole Miss
Belk - MSU
MCB - UK
Liberty - Missouri/Auburn/Arkansas

B-ham - not filled unless Auburn or Arkansas is eligible

Indy - not filled unless Auburn and Arkansas are eligible

 

[RocketDawg]

I agree, but the only thing wrong with Nashville is that it could well be very cold.

 

[ronpolk]

I'm hoping for Charlotte

 

[00Dawg]

I'm struggling on where to expect UF to end up. I think they'll wallop UGA, lose to FSU, and drop the SECCG. Does 10-3 with two wins over ranked teams (UGA is 25 in the Coaches' Poll) earn a spot in the NY6?
If UM ends up with 7 or 8 wins, what does that say about their best win? I think they're the Citrus-bound team while a 10-2 TAMU grabs a NY6 berth.
The next 5 are all toss-ups at this point, since everyone still has a legit shot at 8 wins while a couple may hit 9, and the "attractive matchups" should continue to tamp down the politics of the past.

For sanity, I'll say recent (last two years) attendees are out.
Of likely matchings, that eliminates:
Us and TAMU for Liberty
UT and UGA for Gator
UGA for Belk
UM for Music City

Looking at schedules, I'm gonna say we and UGA finish with 9 wins, UK with 8, and UM and UT with 7.
UGA-Outback
Texas-MSU (didn't realize these guys have a $3 million payout)
Gator-UK
MCB-UT
Belk-UM

 

[DawgatAuburn]

I'm struggling on where to expect UF to end up. I think they'll wallop UGA, lose to FSU, and drop the SECCG. Does 10-3 with two wins over ranked teams (UGA is 25 in the Coaches' Poll) earn a spot in the NY6?
If UM ends up with 7 or 8 wins, what does that say about their best win? I think they're the Citrus-bound team while a 10-2 TAMU grabs a NY6 berth.
The next 5 are all toss-ups at this point, since everyone still has a legit shot at 8 wins while a couple may hit 9, and the "attractive matchups" should continue to tamp down the politics of the past.

For sanity, I'll say recent (last two years) attendees are out.
Of likely matchings, that eliminates:
Us and TAMU for Liberty
UT and UGA for Gator
UGA for Belk
UM for Music City

Looking at schedules, I'm gonna say we and UGA finish with 9 wins, UK with 8, and UM and UT with 7.
UGA-Outback
Texas-MSU (didn't realize these guys have a $3 million payout)
Gator-UK
MCB-UT
Belk-UM

It could get really interesting if Georgia beats Florida. If they do they are in the drivers seat for Atlanta, needing only to win their remaining two games against Kentucky and Auburn. If that happens and Florida loses to FSU, where do those two teams end up?