If you understand the power dynamics of the basketball business, it's quite clear what's going on.
Lebron James is THE power broker when it comes to Nike basketball, and by extension that makes his "associates" the most powerful men in the business. Just think for a second: When was the last time you heard World Wide Wes referred to as a basketball power broker? It's been a while.
Like many great power struggles, it's often the protege who pulls the coup on the mentor. Years ago, WWW (and probably to a larger degree, Leon Rose) helped mentor a young guy named Rich Paul. Surely you recognize the name. He's the agent for guys like John Wall, Anthony Davis and Eric Bledsoe; all of whom he made relationships with while attached to Rose and WWW at CAA sports (who represents Cal). That's quite a collection of UK players, but all of them are 2015 or prior.
Guess how many UK guys that have come out since 2015 have signed with Paul? Zero. He went from signing a who's who of UK players to none. Coincidence? Or perhaps it has to do with the fact that Paul engineered Lebron's exit from CAA and Leon Rose, and ultimately replaced WWW as the main voice in Lebron's ear. Cal is a loyal guy. In fact, it's what his whole value system is built on. It doesn't take a giant leap to assume he was turned off by seeing his longtime friend essentially kicked to curb by a guy he had helped get his start. When was the last time you heard Cal talk about Lebron? (Hint, it was probably around 3 or 4 years ago). So Lebron/Nike turned to the other college coach he had a relationship with through USA basketball.
BTW, this isn't speculation. Brian Windhorst reported in 2015 that the relationship between Cal and Lebron was essentially over. They didn't have personal beef, necessarily, but the Lebron/UK connection was ending. It's like when your friends get a divorce. You pick sides and sometimes you lose friends even though you don't have an issue with that person. You probably know Windhorst as ESPN's "second insider" (behind Woj). But prior to going to ESPN, he was the Cleveland Cavs beat writer for the Akron Beacon-Journal (Lebron's hometown newspaper) and he went to the same high school as Lebron. Nobody was/is more tied into what's going on with the Cavs and, by extension, Lebron, than Windhorst.
Since 2015 Duke has signed: Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, Frank Jackson, Marvin Bagley, Wendell Carter, Trevon Duval, Gary Trent Jr., Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish, along with incoming Vernon Carey, Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, Jalen Johnson, and Jeremy Roach. That's 10 one-and-dones, with the potential for several more.
Prior to that, in the 6 seasons between 2010 (when Cal arrived at UK) and 2015 they had 6 one-and-dones: Kyrie Irving, Jabari Parker, Austin Rivers, Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow and Brandon Ingram. That's one star and multiple busts; not exactly the type of track record that leads to a huge surge in recruiting.
Kentucky, on the other hand, had Wall, Bledsoe, Demarcus Cousins, Brandon Knight, Anthony Davis, MKG, Marquis Teague, Nerlens Noel, Enes Kanter, Julius Randle, James Young, KAT, Devin Booker and Trey Lyles as one-and-dones in that period. There's no comparison in the success level of those groups. Yet, it was Duke that went on a run in recruiting that has rarely been witnessed and Kentucky didn't land ONE top 5 recruit. Put all of this together with the wiretaps about Zion, the "lunch" meeting with Reddish, and what is known about the Bagley-run AAU team, and it's just amazing that some people think this is about simple recruiting pitches.