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Vegas Odds are posted

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OutaStatePlates

Redshirt
Oct 15, 2012
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NCAA
College World Series

<tbody>
</tbody>
Vanderbilt+275
Texas <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215518|POSTUP|.|C"> +325
Tennessee <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215520|POSTUP|.|C"> +350
Arizona <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215524|POSTUP|.|C"> +600
Mississippi State <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215522|POSTUP|.|C"> +600
Stanford <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215525|POSTUP|.|C"> +800
NC State <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215544|POSTUP|.|C"> +1000
Virginia <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215534|POSTUP|.|C"> +1000

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</tbody>



So for non-gamblers, a $100 bet on MSU to win it all would pay $600.
 
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thatsbaseball

thatsbaseball

All-American
May 29, 2007
17,885
6,598
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The west coast teams always produce a surprise or two. They're almost always better than you think they are.
 
Bulldog from Birth

Bulldog from Birth

All-Conference
Jan 23, 2007
2,494
1,064
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I think Vandy certainly has the best chances to win it. But Arizona and Stanford are the best value on the board.
 
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Hump4Hoops

Redshirt
May 1, 2010
6,611
13
38
Texas is getting way too much love here.

They (along with us) have the hardest path to the finish line - playing each other, then UT who will be waiting in the winner's bracket after dismantling Virginia.
 
M

MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
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Hump4Hoops said:
They (along with us) have the hardest path to the finish line - playing each other, then UT who will be waiting in the winner's bracket after dismantling Virginia.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree with you on Texas, I think they are going two and cue. But I do think Virginia may be more dangerous than they are getting credit for. I won’t be shocked at all if they beat Tennessee on Sunday. Coach/program who has lots of postseason experience versus a program with very little of that in Tennessee.
 
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johnson86-1

All-Conference
Aug 22, 2012
14,373
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Hump4Hoops said:
They (along with us) have the hardest path to the finish line - playing each other, then UT who will be waiting in the winner's bracket after dismantling Virginia.
Click to expand...

I admittedly haven't watched texsa beyond the first weekend, so I'm just going off record and such, but I don't see what makes them standout beyond any other team. Vandy to me seems a step above just having two great pitchers in a pitchers ball park and they're not really weak anywhere else. I don't see what makes Texas standout beyond MSU or Arizona.
 
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MSUDC11

Redshirt
Aug 23, 2012
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johnson86-1 said:
I admittedly haven't watched texsa beyond the first weekend, so I'm just going off record and such, but I don't see what makes them standout beyond any other team. Vandy to me seems a step above just having two great pitchers in a pitchers ball park and they're not really weak anywhere else. I don't see what makes Texas standout beyond MSU or Arizona.
Click to expand...

The thing that makes me skeptical about Texas is that the Big 12 has had an awful NCAA Tourney overall. TCU was a Top 8 seed and finished third in their own Regional. Texas Tech got obliterated in a Super on their home field. Oklahoma State got blown out twice by UC Santa Barbara. And those are the only other Big 12 teams that got in. Meanwhile, Texas had by far the easiest path to Omaha of any team. Breeze of a Regional and a 4 seed in a Super.
 
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InTheIttaBenaHotSun

Junior
Jan 9, 2016
2,292
307
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OutaStatePlates said:
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NCAA
College World Series

<tbody>
</tbody>
Vanderbilt+275
Texas <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215518|POSTUP|.|C"> +325
Tennessee <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215520|POSTUP|.|C"> +350
Arizona <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215524|POSTUP|.|C"> +600
Mississippi State <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215522|POSTUP|.|C"> +600
Stanford <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215525|POSTUP|.|C"> +800
NC State <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215544|POSTUP|.|C"> +1000
Virginia <input type="checkbox" value="C|545215516|545215534|POSTUP|.|C"> +1000

<tbody>
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So for non-gamblers, a $100 bet on MSU to win it all would pay $600.
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Not much of a gambler besides playing L-C-R once a year so tell me if I put $100 each on The Dawgs, AZ, Stanford, NCSU and UVA to win the whole thing what are my odds that I come out ahead with one of these VS losing with Vandy, TN or TX winning it all. Anyone with a Stats degree please speak up.
 
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C

CookieMonster.sixpack

Redshirt
Aug 22, 2012
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InTheIttaBenaHotSun said:
Not much of a gambler besides playing L-C-R once a year so tell me if I put $100 each on The Dawgs, AZ, Stanford, NCSU and UVA to win the whole thing what are my odds that I come out ahead with one of these VS losing with Vandy, TN or TX winning it all. Anyone with a Stats degree please speak up.
Click to expand...

Don’t gamble like that is my suggestion.
 
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InTheIttaBenaHotSun

Junior
Jan 9, 2016
2,292
307
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Just looking at it...if you put down $500 total...if we or AZ hit then you make $100. If Stanford hits then you make $300. If NCState or UVA hit then you make $500. If Vandy, TN or TX hit then you're out $500. What is the statistical chance you win with 5 vs lose with 3?
 
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tatedog

Redshirt
Mar 28, 2015
8,739
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You'd likely be better off betting individual games and parlaying the winnings if it hits. Arizona will be +175 or so in the first game against Vanderbilt alone. Those menu type bets usually have a gigantic amount of vig attached.
 
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patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,113
26,721
113
Good advice. Theoretically, the odds should total +6400. They only total +4950. That's a 23% expected profit margin for the casino.
 
ShrubDog

ShrubDog

Redshirt
Apr 13, 2008
5,307
3
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Shop around if you can MSU was +750 before the supers and can get them at +700 at least yesterday. Vandy +220 and Texas was around +280 yesterday. Haven’t checked today.
 
V

VegasDawg13

Freshman
Jun 11, 2007
2,191
80
48
patdog said:
Theoretically, the odds should total +6400.
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How'd you figure that? I calculated the implied probability and came to same conclusion (that the vig is ridiculously high), but I have a suspicion your way was easier.

nm, I figured it out. 8:1 times 8 teams. That's not right, though. If every team were equal with no juice, they'd each be 7:1 or +700. So theoretically, the odds should total +5600, not +6400.
 
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VegasDawg13

Freshman
Jun 11, 2007
2,191
80
48
Implied probability based on those odds, removing the juice:

Vandy 20.47%
Texas 18.06%
Tennessee 17.06%
Arizona/State 10.97%
Stanford 8.53%
NCSt/UVA 6.98%
 
P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
57,113
26,721
113
I figured the average odds should be +800 per team. If you took a $100 bet on each of the 8 teams, all at +800, you'd pay out the $800 you took in. 800*8 = 6,400. And yeah, I'm the guy who once went to the casino with a coworker on a business trip and stood there drinking free beers while mentally calculating, that bet pays 30:1 but the odds are 36:1, why would I do that?
 
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