Update on Vance

Aug 19, 2025
324
650
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It’s been…bad. The Os simply can’t move him out of A ball at this point. He has 181 Ks in 436 PAs. Thats a K rate of 41.5%. He’s hitting .163 / .275 / .251 resulting in a .525 OPS. Thats in advanced single A ball. There are some good things…he’s stealing bases (32 in 102 games) when he gets on and his walk rate is respectable (12%). But it really feels bleak in terms of his matriculation to the majors at this point. The chase rate and the hole in his swing haven’t gone anywhere. The good news is that Vance made some NIL money here and agreed to a $4m signing bonus with the Os. Invest wisely and he will be in pretty good shape for life.
 

premn

All-Conference
Aug 1, 2025
710
1,130
93
People who know more than me about baseball: what is it that makes it so he can’t fix these issues? Was he just able to guess better at the HS/college level and his natural swing talent/athleticism took over? Are pitchers in the minors better at throwing where he can’t hit it? Obviously the K rate was a problem here but the productivity when he made contact made up for it. What is it that stops a guy from being able to make that adjustment now after 1.5 seasons in the minors?
 

lakelawyerheel

All-Conference
Jul 31, 2025
949
1,836
93
The book on Vance was that he had a ton of swing and miss in him at the plate and that is what kept him as a low 1st rounder. I don't know if it is pitch recognition or he bats with a lot of guessing. But even in the minors, there's a book on every hitter and the deal with Vance is no different than what separates a long history of big leaguers and big talents....he can be fooled with off-speed stuff.
 

GraceNugent

All-Conference
Staff member
Jun 29, 2025
928
1,673
93
My view on Vance, I've only been able to watch a bit of him thus far in his professional career, is that the O's are just going to cycle him through swings until they find one that works. If you look at his swing months apart there are large changes in it, I think the head honchos don't care about the numbers until they find something that sticks. That being said, Vance has a level head on his shoulders but with failure like he's never seen before the off-season and a break from baseball could be just what he needs. I would even venture to say have him coach a little league team to get a different perspective on the game that as he says is currently "punching him in the face". That's more of the mental side however, in terms of off-speed stuff that was always a concern and sadly sometimes you can't teach past a certain point of pitch recognition.
 

unc80

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2009
1,243
2,265
113
I sure hope he figures out hitting soon. Such a tremendous talent. If he can get it going at the plate, he'll no doubt have a career in the Show.
 

Mrtarheel1

Freshman
Aug 3, 2025
35
59
17
Grace, I coach my grandson's fall ball LL team. Can you see if he wants to join our coaching staff:D
 

uncbornbred

Junior
Jul 27, 2025
339
332
62
My view on Vance, I've only been able to watch a bit of him thus far in his professional career, is that the O's are just going to cycle him through swings until they find one that works. If you look at his swing months apart there are large changes in it, I think the head honchos don't care about the numbers until they find something that sticks. That being said, Vance has a level head on his shoulders but with failure like he's never seen before the off-season and a break from baseball could be just what he needs. I would even venture to say have him coach a little league team to get a different perspective on the game that as he says is currently "punching him in the face". That's more of the mental side however, in terms of off-speed stuff that was always a concern and sadly sometimes you can't teach past a certain point of pitch recognition.
as usual ... Ms. Grace with salient and insightful observations and opinions

this is what makes her so awesome

GO HEELS
 

HudcoTrucking

Junior
Aug 1, 2025
275
347
63
If you have played baseball, every rung on the ladder emphasizes hitting. It's humiliating and you can excel in everything else on the field. But it gets harder and harder.

It's OK for me because I do heart surgery now.