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Tropical Shenanigans

Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
5,414
113
With Fiona right on the verge of being the first major hurricane of the season in the Atlantic basin, there another tropical wave down near the Windward Islands that is starting to garner some attention. The NHC is giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 5 days. What's concerning is virtually all of the major models are developing this into a hurricane and tracking it into the Gulf of Mexico next week. After that all bets are off as far as strength and track go, but plenty of time to watch that. As of right now, if this storm develops and tracks into the Gulf, it's 8-12 days away from threatening any coastal areas on the US mainland.
 
mcdawg22

mcdawg22

Heisman
Sep 18, 2004
13,226
10,939
113
View attachment 25332
Oof. The only thing I can say is, I got a new roof 3 weeks ago and I am tired of the pebbles falling onto my pool deck so this could possibly knock them off for good!
 
DesotoCountyDawg

DesotoCountyDawg

Heisman
Nov 16, 2005
27,738
20,920
113
Latest GFS run has it going up the west side of Florida and curving in toward Tampa. Still a long way out so this will change a hundred times.
 
Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
5,414
113
This is now Invest 98L with a 50% chance of developement.





 
Jeffreauxdawg

Jeffreauxdawg

All-American
Dec 15, 2017
8,840
7,820
113
mcdawg22 said:
Here’s my local forecast for next Saturday. Lol
Click to expand...
Will be sunny and 72° at my house. Prolly do a little elk hunting in the AM and get home in time for lunch where I'll watch the game outside on the patio. Won't get dark until 7:45ish. Game should wrap up by 5:30 my time and if I am not drunk, I'll go get 13-14 holes in on a twilight rate.

Have fun with those 3-4 hours on Sunday cleaning all the **** out of your pool that gets blown in with that 37mph wind. And don't forget to shock it. Prolly going to have to take a sample into Leslie's honestly, that kinda storm is going to 17 your pH all up.

Do you have a checklist handy to make sure you get all the supplies you'll need if power goes out? Gotta have batteries and plenty of clean drinking water.
 
mcdawg22

mcdawg22

Heisman
Sep 18, 2004
13,226
10,939
113
JoeLee'sSocks said:
Will be sunny and 72° at my house. Prolly do a little elk hunting in the AM and get home in time for lunch where I'll watch the game outside on the patio. Won't get dark until 7:45ish. Game should wrap up by 5:30 my time and if I am not drunk, I'll go get 13-14 holes in on a twilight rate.

Have fun with those 3-4 hours on Sunday cleaning all the **** out of your pool that gets blown in with that 37mph wind. And don't forget to shock it. Prolly going to have to take a sample into Leslie's honestly, that kinda storm is going to 17 your pH all up.

Do you have a checklist handy to make sure you get all the supplies you'll need if power goes out? Gotta have batteries and plenty of clean drinking water.
Click to expand...
Well, yeah, that’s just your opinion man.
 
Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
5,414
113
Here is the latest on what will become Hermine. Models are trying to come together on a track into Florida, but there is still a large spread in solutions so anybody from the LA coast to Miami need to be watching the latest developments. Forecast trends for strength are alarming as a consensus is growing for this to be a category 3 at landfall. Again, still way too far out to say for sure and any claims of this being a category 4 or 5 are based on nothing data driven. Yes, it is always possible, but it is just too early now to know with any certainty.








 
Xenomorph

Xenomorph

All-American
Feb 15, 2007
15,463
9,278
113
Models from 1pm today are starting to suck even more..

 
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Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
5,414
113
Current runs are coming in. The euro is still favoring the eastern track taking it in near Tampa. The GFS has tracked west and likes Panama City. The Canadian is telling Nola it's about to go in dry. Moral of the story is track and intensity still anybody's guess. But anyone on the north or eastern Gulf need to be thinking about preparations.
 
S

Smoked Toag

Redshirt
Jul 15, 2021
3,262
1
0
Hugh's Burner Phone said:
Current runs are coming in. The euro is still favoring the eastern track taking it in near Tampa. The GFS has tracked west and likes Panama City. The Canadian is telling Nola it's about to go in dry. Moral of the story is track and intensity still anybody's guess. But anyone on the north or eastern Gulf need to be thinking about preparations.
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It always tracks west. So I'm sure it'll hit Mississippi head on.
 
L

litlhitch

Redshirt
Feb 14, 2022
9
7
3
Can anyone give me a timeline for these projections? I have a place rented at Port St Joe to celebrate our 15 year anniversary starting Tuesday. Will we have a couple days before we have to retreat? I don’t think our rental is refundable
 
mcdawg22

mcdawg22

Heisman
Sep 18, 2004
13,226
10,939
113
litlhitch said:
Can anyone give me a timeline for these projections? I have a place rented at Port St Joe to celebrate our 15 year anniversary starting Tuesday. Will we have a couple days before we have to retreat? I don’t think our rental is refundable
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It’s way to early to give any kind of timeline but local 10 day forecast in the panhandle are showing Sat/Sun. But who knows.
 
Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
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113
mcdawg22 said:
It’s way too early to give any kind of timeline but local 10 day forecast in the panhandle are showing Sat/Sun. But who knows.
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Next weekend is starting to come into focus as the probable landfall. Location and strength still to be determined.
 
Dawgbite

Dawgbite

All-American
Nov 1, 2011
8,874
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litlhitch said:
Can anyone give me a timeline for these projections? I have a place rented at Port St Joe to celebrate our 15 year anniversary starting Tuesday. Will we have a couple days before we have to retreat? I don’t think our rental is refundable
Click to expand...

I'm going to be in Port St Joe Sunday through Monday. Based on past hurricanes your vacation is 17ed.
 
Dawgbite

Dawgbite

All-American
Nov 1, 2011
8,874
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Hurricane party at Indian Pass Raw Bar Wednesday night. Wear Maroon!
 
Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
5,414
113
litlhitch said:
Can anyone give me a timeline for these projections? I have a place rented at Port St Joe to celebrate our 15 year anniversary starting Tuesday. Will we have a couple days before we have to retreat? I don’t think our rental is refundable
Click to expand...

Current timeframe looks to be around 10/1-10/4.
 
DesotoCountyDawg

DesotoCountyDawg

Heisman
Nov 16, 2005
27,738
20,920
113
00z GFS has it coming right at the Mississippi coast and traveling up the middle of the state but it’s the GFS so trash in, trash out. Everything else still has the eastern track recurving into Florida. The Canadian went from a western track to a more eastern one mimicking the Euro.
 
DesotoCountyDawg

DesotoCountyDawg

Heisman
Nov 16, 2005
27,738
20,920
113
The 06z GFS just came out now has it even farther west going into western Louisiana near Lake Charles.
 
o_SGIDawg

o_SGIDawg

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2022
20
33
13
It appears the models are even less certain this morning what the track of this will be
 
Trojanbulldog19

Trojanbulldog19

All-American
Aug 25, 2014
10,010
5,791
113
I've never used gfs much for anything but land fronts and storms. Just not very reliable for hurricanes to me. Euro has been much better.
 
DesotoCountyDawg

DesotoCountyDawg

Heisman
Nov 16, 2005
27,738
20,920
113
Euro is pretty much the gold standard on hurricanes. It’s still not perfect but it tends to not throw out wild scenarios like the GFS.
 
Hugh's Burner Phone

Hugh's Burner Phone

All-American
Aug 3, 2017
5,069
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113
And here is the latest and there have been some changes. We're starting to see the models try to shift the track west and put more of the northern Gulf Coast in the cross hairs. Remains to be seen if that trend holds or it shifts back east in the future. One thing to note is all of the models are having a hard time with the strength of this system. As you can see from the last graphic they are going anywhere from this staying a tropical storm up to a Cat 5. More interesting is that it looks to be about as perfectly even distribution across the spectrum as you can get. This is not a case where the majority of the models agree and there's just a couple of outliers. So you can be sure if there is that must disagreement in strength, then track is just as muddled.







 
R

RocketDawg

All-Conference
Oct 21, 2011
19,028
2,101
113
Panama City/Mexico Beach must be the latest magnet for October hurricanes. Michael was just 4 years ago; before that, it was something like a hundred years since one had made landfall there.
 
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