Today’s B1G
- Thread starter zebnatto
- Start date
No.
BUT ... you want Oregon to beat USC to give USC 12 losses with 2 games left (Washington at home, and @UCLA). RU has a tiebreaker in a 2-way tie with USC.
AND ... You want PSU to lose to Maryland (only down 5, getting FT's and the ball with 3 minutes left). Now PSU down 3.
AND ... not sure what we want with the Nebraska-Minnesota game - Nebraska to win, I guess, get Minny to 12 losses with Wisconsin at home and @ RU left after today.
Easiest path for RU: Have either USC or Iowa to get to 14 losses, along with Washington and PSU.
BUT ... you want Oregon to beat USC to give USC 12 losses with 2 games left (Washington at home, and @UCLA). RU has a tiebreaker in a 2-way tie with USC.
AND ... You want PSU to lose to Maryland (only down 5, getting FT's and the ball with 3 minutes left). Now PSU down 3.
AND ... not sure what we want with the Nebraska-Minnesota game - Nebraska to win, I guess, get Minny to 12 losses with Wisconsin at home and @ RU left after today.
Easiest path for RU: Have either USC or Iowa to get to 14 losses, along with Washington and PSU.
Well, a Penn State loss to Maryland would guarantee they cannot catch us.
Washington losing would do the same... but we have the tiebreaker over them, so it probably could only help us if they finish 7-13 somehow.
Nobody else could get conference loss 13 or more today. So I'm guessing there's no magic combo today that guarantees we make it.
Washington losing would do the same... but we have the tiebreaker over them, so it probably could only help us if they finish 7-13 somehow.
Nobody else could get conference loss 13 or more today. So I'm guessing there's no magic combo today that guarantees we make it.
A PSU loss today means Washington and PSU can’t catch us. We may not even need to win another game to finish out of bottom three. PSU and Maryland are in a tight one with both teams making bad plays down the stretch.
We only need to finish ahead of one other team.
It actually is better for us if Minnesota beats Nebraska today.
It actually is better for us if Minnesota beats Nebraska today.
Not convinced its better for Minny to beat Nebraska. I do not think it actually gains RU anything - RU seems likely to have to beat Minny (or Minny to beat RU) in the last game ... unless another team gets to 14 losses.
The easiest path for RU other than beating Purdue and Minnesota, is for Iowa to lose 2 (facing Michigan St at home, than @Nebraska), and/or USC losing 3 (@Oregon, home vs Washington and @UCLA). You do NOT want to finish in a 3-way or more tie with USC as one of the teams if the 3 or 4 teams in that mini-pool have the same record against each other: USC beat Michigan St, currently #1 in the conference, and that is a HUGE potential tiebreaker in a multi-team mini-pool tie.
Right but this is what I mean re: Minnesota. We will have to beat them regardless to stay ahead of them. Nebby could easily lose out and we own the tie breaker there.
The only way Minnesota losing would matter for staying ahead of them is if we beat Purdue to get to 8 wins. But if we do that we are almost certainly making it regardless.
Edit: i see what you're saying about the 3 way tie scenarios which I hadn't considered.
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That is why I was rooting for UCLA to beat Purdue - so they would finish ahead of Purdue, and give RU a little better path in a multi-team tie (especially over NW, who beat Purdue).
Boy, not pulling off that Michigan win really smarted - would have helped immensely, obviously.
4 teams currently at 7-11 (RU,Neb,Min,NW) . RU on top with tiebreakers. https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big10m
Minnesota winning helps RU because if they are included in the 7-13 tied teams it pushes Rutgers to the bottom in most of the possible round robins. If Minn finish 8-12 then Rutgers at 7-13 has better round robin records over the other likely 7-13 teams
With the way everything else has gone this season and with how disappointing it’s been, it would make a hell of a lot of sense for us to finish 16th and miss tourney based upon some multi-team tiebreaker. Not saying it will happen, but it would be par for the course for sure. Thinking the Minnesota game may end up a must win game, but I think we win that game. Still thinking we get in, but if somehow we missed on a crazy scenario I am not going to be shocked in amazement.
its better
If Iowa is 7-13 that means they likely beat Nebby...nebby must also lose at osu and then a 4 way tie at 7-13..what happens then
Rutgers would be at the 12th spot on top of that 4 way tie. Based on round robin record.
USC beginning to get blown out, down 20 with less than 4 minutes left (had been a 7-point game before Oregon runs off something like 13 in a row, or 15-2, or something like that. And in a hurry, not a slow grind.
Now 79-55 ... Oregon has hit something like 5 consecutive 3-point shots. The TV just showed a graphic: USC was up 15-4, and since then Oregon has outscored USC 75-40.
Now 79-55 ... Oregon has hit something like 5 consecutive 3-point shots. The TV just showed a graphic: USC was up 15-4, and since then Oregon has outscored USC 75-40.
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For practical purposes there's this year there's almost no difference between being seeded anywhere from 10th to 15th. That whole group of teams will be very evenly matched.
Likely, yes. But not guaranteed. There is the long shot case of Iowa beating Michigan State and losing to Nebraska. A very narrow path exists for the three way tie with SC and Iowa, but it is there. Northwestern needs to beat UCLA or Maryland, too.
So... it looks like to miss out... the perfect storm is:
RU finishes 0-2
Northwestern wins at least one of UCLA or Maryland
Iowa goes 1-1 (Michigan State, Nebraska)
Nebraska goes 1-1 (Ohio State, Iowa)
USC goes 1-1 (Washington, UCLA) this is actually their expected outcome. If SC goes 2-0, we are also out if the rest happens as above and we are only tirs with Iowa.
Root against Iowa and NW.
Root for Washington to upset SC.
Root for RU to win another game!
Penn St 14 losses(Rutgers 1-0)
Washington 14 losses(Rutgers 1-0)
USC(Rutgers 1-0) 6-12
Iowa(Rutgers 0-1) 6-12
Neb(Rutgers 1-0) 7-11
NW(Rutgers 1-0) 7-11
Minn(0-0) 7-11
Rutgers at 7-11
If we lose to Purdue, Minn, Minn will have 8
The only team we lose a tiebreak, vs Iowa going 1-1, NW and Neb 1-1 and USC 2-0. Iowa is @ Neb final game, after Iowa home vs Mich St and Neb @ OSU. Very unlikely either win which will eliminate both going 1-1.
Iowa 1-0 vs NW, 1-0 vs Neb(1 left), 0-1 vs USC
3 way, Iowa, Neb, Rutgers 7-13, Iowa 3-0, Rutgers 1-1, Nebraska 0-3.
NW has vs UCLA, @ Maryland.
USC vs Washington, @ UCLA.
If either finished 7-13, helps Rutgers.
Washington 14 losses(Rutgers 1-0)
USC(Rutgers 1-0) 6-12
Iowa(Rutgers 0-1) 6-12
Neb(Rutgers 1-0) 7-11
NW(Rutgers 1-0) 7-11
Minn(0-0) 7-11
Rutgers at 7-11
If we lose to Purdue, Minn, Minn will have 8
The only team we lose a tiebreak, vs Iowa going 1-1, NW and Neb 1-1 and USC 2-0. Iowa is @ Neb final game, after Iowa home vs Mich St and Neb @ OSU. Very unlikely either win which will eliminate both going 1-1.
Iowa 1-0 vs NW, 1-0 vs Neb(1 left), 0-1 vs USC
3 way, Iowa, Neb, Rutgers 7-13, Iowa 3-0, Rutgers 1-1, Nebraska 0-3.
NW has vs UCLA, @ Maryland.
USC vs Washington, @ UCLA.
If either finished 7-13, helps Rutgers.
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If yours is right I calculate the odds of this perfect storm based on espn probabilities at 2.5%.
@fluoxetine. Happy to have you correct me on this. Ru losing both upcoming games is around 25%. USC winning at least one is the strongest possibility in the "chain links" above at around 80% by my math.