Stock Market

andcam

All-Conference
Jan 3, 2011
6,351
4,291
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This market looks way overpriced to me. It's getting close to the dot com fervor with AI. What do you all see as mkt return from now to year end ? I think maybe 2% more max, but more likely flat to down from now to year end ? Would love some advice and thoughts......
 

dbjork6317

Heisman
Dec 3, 2009
18,166
70,692
113
This market looks way overpriced to me. It's getting close to the dot com fervor with AI. What do you all see as mkt return from now to year end ? I think maybe 2% more max, but more likely flat to down from now to year end ? Would love some advice and thoughts......
who knows? I’m just gonna keep dripping into high dividend index funds and ride the wave my man
 
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DW4_2016

Heisman
Jan 25, 2010
8,687
10,248
113
you might take a look, msty, for example is paying about a 120% dividend.
just buy bitcoin. no point in buying synthetic long and paying someone else for the service. you can go long and leverage on your own for way better rates.
 
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fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
23,496
21,886
113
This market looks way overpriced to me. It's getting close to the dot com fervor with AI. What do you all see as mkt return from now to year end ? I think maybe 2% more max, but more likely flat to down from now to year end ? Would love some advice and thoughts......
Valuations do seem stretched. Lots of earnings over the next week or so that will be important.

AI is a promising technology. Deregulation is a tailwind. Intrest rates should come down in the near future. Trump trade deals should be good for economy. Still lots of money on the sidelines that missed the rally and waiting to get back in.

inflation still above the 2% target rate, part of why valuations continue to be stretched in my opinion.

I think AI will continue to lead the charge for a while. Lots of promising technology and disruption coming.
 

baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
4,944
3,609
113
Looks interesting. What are the risks here?
well, the thing is...a lot of these YIELDMAX ETFs are based primarily on income goals. So, they might give up some NAV for income, it's the trade off. There are studies that show if you simply invested is MSTR you'd outweigh, in the longer term, the total return.

But as you get older, if you want the stability of an income over the ups and downs of the market some of these might fit the bill.
I'm retired and just wanted to experiment with some "mad money" in what I refer to as my income account. So I created my own "ETF" made up of three parts - preferred stocks, dividend ETFs and individual municipal bonds. Obviously the municipal bonds and the preferreds form the conservative part. But then I added about 20 of the more aggressive covered call ETFs, some closed end funds, some BDCs. Over the past couple of years I'm averaging just about a 12% return with, in my opinion, reasonable risk. I'm down some in NAV (minimally, and they go up and down just like to overall market) but I generate a few $thousand a month in income, some tax free, some qualified and some just totally taxable.

To be honest, I have the rest of my money in real estate or with a wealth advisor. So I can afford to experiment a little with money that will only be spent by grandchildren. I just like to remind them how much money they gained or lost each year. I'm still trying to figure out how to take it with me.
 
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fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
23,496
21,886
113
Looks interesting. What are the risks here?

well, the thing is...a lot of these YIELDMAX ETFs are based primarily on income goals. So, they might give up some NAV for income, it's the trade off. There are studies that show if you simply invested is MSTR you'd outweigh, in the longer term, the total return.

But as you get older, if you want the stability of an income over the ups and downs of the market some of these might fit the bill.
I'm retired and just wanted to experiment with some "mad money" in what I refer to as my income account. So I created my own "ETF" made up of three parts - preferred stocks, dividend ETFs and individual municipal bonds. Obviously the municipal bonds and the preferreds form the conservative part. But then I added about 20 of the more aggressive covered call ETFs, some closed end funds, some BDCs. Over the past couple of years I'm averaging just about a 12% return with, in my opinion, reasonable risk. I'm down some in NAV (minimally, and they go up and down just like to overall market) but I generate a few $thousand a month in income, some tax free, some qualified and some just totally taxable.

To be honest, I have the rest of my money in real estate or with a wealth advisor. So I can afford to experiment a little with money that will only be spent by grandchildren. I just like to remind them how much money they gained or lost each year. I'm still trying to figure out how to take it with me.

long term you will underperform with covered call strategy. That’s what the math says .
 

fatpiggy

Heisman
Aug 18, 2002
23,496
21,886
113
Market on fire overnight with META and. MSFT blowing out earnings. Spuz up 60 pts
 

baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
4,944
3,609
113
Sorry. I thought you actually understood crypto
I don't understand crypto at all. That's why I don't invest directly in it. I do invest in actively managed ETFs that play in covered calls based on crypto. I seriously don't understand crypto
 
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Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,416
3,324
113
Sorry. I thought you actually understood crypto
I am ignorant when it comes to crypto, but from a cursory glance, mstr financials looks like crap to me unless there is some underlying value other than bitcoin. Looks like bitcoin holdings are about $70 billion with $115 billion market cap.
$8 B debt to 62 M cash
P/S 161, Q1 net income minus 4.2 B, net margin minus 3,800%, 4 quarters with significant down side earnings misses,
1st quarter Free cash flow minus 11 M

2nd Q earnings after the close today.
Earnings and rev est are -0.098 and 113.5 M

Seems like financials support writing covered calls as long as demand and volatility within gradual up or flat price action supports high interest strike levels
 
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Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,416
3,324
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The 23,500 level on NQ futures is a big magnet in the derivatives market
 

DW4_2016

Heisman
Jan 25, 2010
8,687
10,248
113
I don't understand crypto at all. That's why I don't invest directly in it. I do invest in actively managed ETFs that play in covered calls based on crypto. I seriously don't understand crypto
Without going too deep into it, I’m pretty sure what you’re investing in is some sort of Ponzi scheme. Good luck.
 

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,416
3,324
113
FWIW
Today and tomorrow have significant market moving tarriff implications


"Meanwhile, a federal appeals court is holding a hearing Thursday on the legality of a huge swath of tariffs that Trump justified by invoking emergency powers, including the country-by-country rates due out Friday."

"If those are ultimately ruled illegal, CBP will likely need to issue refunds for all revenue collected under the so-called reciprocal tariffs, though the process for doing so is unclear."

Low odds to see this playing out, but far reaching uncertainty is prevalent
 
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baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
4,944
3,609
113
Sorry. I thought you actually understood crypto
I don't understand crypto at all. That's why I don't invest directly in it. I do invest in actively managed ETFs that play in covered calls based on crypto. I seriously don't understand crypto
Without going too deep into it, I’m pretty sure what you’re investing in is some sort of Ponzi scheme. Good luck.
well, it's not a Ponzi scheme, but it is some far out derivative investment. I don't invest a ton in it, but so far the NAV declines are far less than the dividend payouts. Like I posted I have this account I play with that includes some preferreds, municipal bonds and some ETFs. I'm up overall - and have been for years - in NAV and and earning a little over 12% in dividends. There are some covered call ETFs like NUSI JEPI and the KURV ones that are a little more subdued and still provide a good dividend return.

Not for everybody, but I like the idea of earning dividends sufficient to my RMD payouts.
 

baltimorened

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
4,944
3,609
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If 60% of the trailing 12 monthly payouts hold you would fully recover the purchase.
yea, I know. There are multiple stories of investors in msty that earned dividends in one year that were in excess of their original investment. I wouldn't put my IRA/401 into it without some stop loss orders
 

Dadar

All-Conference
Dec 21, 2003
4,416
3,324
113
The 23,500 level on NQ futures is a big magnet in the derivatives market
The 1000, 500, 100 & 50 price levels are significant magnets in the derivatives markets. Especially index futures
 
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