Some stats offering hope

[HominidHusker]

https://hailvarsity.com/s/6226/is-a-top-10-class-required-to-make-the-college-football-playoff

Nice to know there’s plenty of opportunity for well coached teams
to make CFB while not posting top 10 class averaged over the four years prior to their appearance.

Nebraska’s disadvantage at the moment seems to be despite any rankings, we’ve lost so many of our top rated recruits in the last 4 years... and some of the remaining top recruits have been non-contributors so far.
(per Rivals)
2018: 2 of top 9 already gone **and we could lose M Washington who should’ve been in that top 9, but wasn’t
2017: 6 of top 7 recruits gone w/ 1 non-contributor (that’s 0-7 so far with McQuitty still looking to produce)
2016: 3 of top 7 gone plus 2 non-contributors (so 5 aren’t playing right now)
2015: 6 of top 12 are gone (some graduation) and 3 more are non-contributors *one contributor is E Lee which barely counts right now, so you could say there’s only 2 current contributors in Davis twins.

In total, looking at higher ranked talent, 17-18 are no longer on roster in 4 year span, while most remaining are still in second year only so contributions are unknown.
2015-2017 adds another 7 more non-contributors at this point I would say. Guys like McQuitty, Raridon, Dismuke, Neal, Lee, Gaylord, could still change narrative a bit.
That’s a total of up to 25 top rated players (out of 35 total included in the analysis) from last 4 years not giving any significant contribution for 2019 with jury still out on much of the 2018 class. Let’s re-iterate that: 25 of 35 top rated guys potentially not giving us much of anything for 2019!!
That sways the outlook for CFB potential is all I would say I guess.
Once we start hitting a higher success rate on top rated guys, then we’ll see a team with greater depth and potential.
*obviously there’s lower ranked guys who outperform their recruit profile, but this is just about the high strikeout rate for top rated recruits.
GBR

 

[Cornicator]

Players don't pan out for a couple of reasons:

1. Injuries- football is a violent game and dudes get hurt. Injuries are a great neutralizer.

2. Academics - college isn't easy. Some dudes aren't really college material. And others aren't willing to put forth effort in the classroom, even with all the additional academic support afforded to D1 student athletes.

3. Off the field issues/ criminal behavior- Some dudes come from rough backgrounds, and its difficult for them to escape that Environment.

4. Character/Work Ethic - This is where Mike Riley failed repeatedly with the Huskers. Many of the players you alluded to in the 15, 16, and 17 recruiting classes were never properly vetted. Riley and staff did a very poor job of checking backgrounds, and learning about work ethic. Hell, even some dudes like Joseph Lewis, who signed with USC, are already kicked out of school. Players don't work their asses off with great attitudes, and then suddenly show up at college and sit on their ***. Those characteristics are already in place.


No recruiting class is going to be perfect, and you can't truly gauge everyone until they arrive on campus. But some dudes should never earn a scholarship from the beginning, whether they run a 4.4 or not.

 

[jlb321_rivals110621]

The analyses breakdown when the focus is on single recruits rather than 4 year composites. Recruit A was a 4* and he was a wash while recruit B was a 3* and he was all conference.

if you take 2 OLB per year that position is going to be in much better shape if over the 4 years you have recruited 8-4*s vs 8-3*s.

You need to string highly ranked classes one after another so you maximize the possibility of getting high level performance at each position. You can also have high ranking classes that are unbalanced and leave holes at key positions. That 3rd 4* RB or WR isn't going to make up for a deficiency in OLB recruiting even though it boosts the class rank