Some real early number crunching

[615dawg]

If we go 12-1 in the non-conference slate, with the only loss being at Cincinnati:

Assuming everyone we play is +/- 3 wins of where they are projected, we would need to go 10-8 in the SEC to have a Top 40 RPI. 12-6 would be a #27 RPI.

If we go 13-0, we would need to go 8-10 to have a Top 40 RPI. 12-6 would be a #21 RPI.

I'm using the Top 40 RPI because it is rare that a Power 5 team misses the tournament with a Top 40 RPI.

 

[57stratdawg]

Good stuff 615

 

[civildawg88]

I did not realize cincy is #11. Will be a good measuring stick

 

[engie]

The Cinci game is a monster.... really the only noncon game that matters for us in a positive way...

 

[civildawg88]

The play Florida two days before us also

 

[615dawg]

Beating Cincy would buy us at least one SEC needed win, maybe two, The SEC is better this year. I think it has a chance to be a 7-8 bid league.

Right now our RPI is 47th with 11 ESVs ahead of us. An ESV is not only the best bible translation, its an "Early Season Visitor" in computer rankings. For example, Utah Valley is 4-3 and ranked ahead of us. They are likely going to be a 15-17 win team that will not be in the top 100.However, a tough early schedule has bought them a higher ranking.

If you take out the ESV's, we have a TrueRPI of 36-38.

 

[57stratdawg]

Yep. We get them “at home”, but they’re playing on Northern Kentucky’s campus this year. We’re also sandwiched in a really tough stretch for them, Xavier, Florida, MSU then UCLA.

 

[615dawg]

Piggybacking on this, we would currently be favored in 10 SEC games

Arkansas
at Ole Miss
Auburn
Vanderbilt
at South Carolina
Georgia
at Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
South Carolina
at LSU


We would be a 4 point underdog or less in 3 additional games

Alabama
at Florida (4)
Tennessee (1.5)

We would be 5 point+ underdogs in the other 5 games

at Alabama (6)
at Kentucky (10)
Missouri (8)
at Missouri (11)
at Texas A&M (8)

 

[She Mate Me]

Appreciate the effort, but whatever you're relying on to predict game lines is not in line with reality. We would not be favored at any SEC opponent except possibly LSU and the idea we would be a 4 pt or less dog at Florida is laughable. They would be favored by 14 or more.

 

[Irondawg]

My eyes still don’t see a NCAA team. We are very lucky to have not dropped 2 games already.

Our defense is improved overall but our offense looks only more organized than a lot of intramural or church league teams. And we aren’t shooting well and our passing is still very substandard.

We are better but still feel we are a long way off.

 

[She Mate Me]

I agree. I've seen positives in the last few games (Carter shooting and Q clutchness), but we look pretty average from an execution standpoint. Lots of athleticism which is encouraging, but I think we really struggle to win more than 7 in a tougher SEC. NIT is very realistic, but without real improvement (which is certainly possible) NCAA seems a reach.

 

[missouridawg]

If we ar a four point dog at Florida.... I will be a very happy man cause that’s free money.

 

[Drebin]

My eyes still don’t see a NCAA team. We are very lucky to have not dropped 2 games already.

Our defense is improved overall but our offense looks only more organized than a lot of intramural or church league teams. And we aren’t shooting well and our passing is still very substandard.

We are better but still feel we are a long way off.

What I see in our offense is high turnovers due to lazy/poor passing. We shoot the ball fairly well....just need to value the ball more. Our high turnover problem is a symptom of youth. I know people hate the "we're young" excuse, but it is what it is. This is a team that will get better as the season progresses.

We are tremendously athletic. We block a lot of shots. We are going to be fun to watch down the stretch.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

We shoot TWO POINT shots very well, but we are one of the worst teams in the country from three (319 of 351).

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Piggybacking on this, we would currently be favored in 10 SEC games

Arkansas
at Ole Miss
Auburn
Vanderbilt
at South Carolina
Georgia
at Vanderbilt
Ole Miss
South Carolina
at LSU


We would be a 4 point underdog or less in 3 additional games

Alabama
at Florida (4)
Tennessee (1.5)

We would be 5 point+ underdogs in the other 5 games

at Alabama (6)
at Kentucky (10)
Missouri (
at Missouri (11)
at Texas A&M (

CBB lines are very often in the ballpark of Sagarin ratings. Some of your numbers and whatever source you are using (Warren Nolan?) are close but Florida is way off.


College Basketball 2017-2018 Div I games only through games of 2017 December 3 Sunday
HOME ADVANTAGE= [ 5.20] [ 7.15] [ 3.24]
2 Texas A&M = 95.68
10 Tennessee = 91.20
12 Florida = 90.09
21 Missouri = 87.30
31 Arkansas = 84.77
34 Alabama = 84.38
46 Kentucky = 82.70
56 Auburn = 81.34
70 Mississippi State = 79.76 HOME 84.96
73 Georgia = 79.15
78 South Carolina = 77.98
121 LSU = 74.59
132 Mississippi = 73.94
138 Vanderbilt = 73.12

 

[Drebin]

We shoot TWO POINT shots very well, but we are one of the worst teams in the country from three (319 of 351).

Well, to be fair, we jump up into the top 10 when Peters and Stapleton's attempts are removed. **

Seriously, you know Q is going to shoot it better. But we jack up too many threes for sure. I don't mind Carter, Q, or Holman shooting them, or even Nick for that matter but only within the flow of the offense.

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

The question is will we have a full damn team at all this year? Seems like every game someone is injured, suspended. Don't we need a slot to fit this years class in? I don't think Peters is going pro, so who leaves?

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

We are going to be in a decent place from a RPI perspective entering SEC play despite a horrendous pre-conference. Hindsight might be that this team just needed to win some damned games against anybody. The eye test still does not indicate to me that this is a very good basketball team, but there was some pieces of the puzzle in place. We are probably a NIT & I guess we can live with that outcome because it will be PROGRESS. Maybe lightning with strike & we will figure out how to win the 11-12 SEC games necessary to make the DANCE. The SEC appears to be stronger than it has been in 10 years, so 6-8 teams in the tourney is a real possibility. I am just struggling to find 11 SEC wins. Hope I am wrong

 

[tcdog70]

i would like to know what the Hell is wrong with Peters? he was better last year. All the pre-season hoop-la, made me think he would be a dominate PG.Has he forgotten how to drive and dish?. Plus it would be nice to play a game with everybody ready to play. Datcher need to get well. Most of our problems occur against a zone defense. Our bigs need to be able to catch it and not travel or throw it away.

 

[615dawg]

I agree. There's something about Florida my formula doesn't trust right now though. It appears to be their defense, which may be skewed by giving up 87, 105 and 87 in their last three games, albeit against good competition. Only one team has hit 68 on us. Florida has given up 68 or more in all but one game, and all but one team is scoring over their average against the Gators.

May be why Sagarin and Warren Nolan get paid for this and 615 doesnt, but there's something to be concerned about there.

 

[engie]

I think we're better than we're ranked/than we look....because I think we're a much better 3p% shooting team than we've shown so far.... But I'm admittedly even starting to question that myself as the bad 3 point shooting persists deeper into the season.

 

[engie]

I agree with everything you said up until the 11-12 SEC win part... By conferenceRPI, we are the strongest conference right now. And KenPom has 13 SEC teams in the top 67.

Barring a disastrous final two weeks of noncon play, I think it's a year that 10 SEC wins is almost a lock and half the league gets in...

That said, the eye test doesn't give me a bunch of confidence we'll be in that top half. But I haven't watched the rest of the league much either...

 

[DAWG61]

The question is will we have a full damn team at all this year? Seems like every game someone is injured, suspended. Don't we need a slot to fit this years class in? I don't think Peters is going pro, so who leaves?

Gotta be a sneaky yet legit way to keep everyone.

 

[She Mate Me]

RPI is total BS, but somehow this year it's doing us a favor. 47th is a nice spot to be sitting considering who we've played. Really vital that we win all the non con games save Cincy. That will give us a chance to work onto the NCAA bubble if we can show improvement. This team is athletic and talented with some leadership from the Spoons.

 

[hailstate19]

i would like to know what the Hell is wrong with Peters? he was better last year. All the pre-season hoop-la, made me think he would be a dominate PG.Has he forgotten how to drive and dish?. Plus it would be nice to play a game with everybody ready to play. Datcher need to get well. Most of our problems occur against a zone defense. Our bigs need to be able to catch it and not travel or throw it away.

I think yeaterday was a bit of rust

I Remember the game before the suspension, he had a fantastic game and was slashing the defense and making big plays.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

If we're being honest, he's been atrocious this year and he's currently not part of our best five, as evidenced by him being planted on the bench during crunch time last night.

Last year:
38.7% from the floor (not good)
36.6% from three
738 minutes
266 shots, so a shot every 2.77 minutes
161 threes, so a three every 4.5 minutes
68 turnovers, so a TO every 10.8 minutes
101 assists, so an assist every 7.3 minutes


This year
35% from the floor (terrible)
13% from three (3-24, which is mind boggling)
102 minutes
40 shots, so a shot every 2.55 minutes
24 threes, so a three every 4.25 minutes
11 turnovers, so a TO every 9.2 minutes
16 assists, so an assist every 6.4 minutes


So he's shooting more frequently when he's on the floor, making fewer shots overall and dramatically fewer from three, and turning the ball over a slightly higher rate. He is setting people up at a slightly higher rate, so that's good. He's also been a sieve at times defensively, and I know he has the ability to perform better on that end of the court.

 

[615dawg]

RPI isn't BS. It tells the truth. Some people don't like the truth.

The truth is, right now the SEC is doing what it takes to become a 7 or 8 bid league. That's the work that has to be put in during November and December. If the SEC can stay No. 1 or No. 2 in the RPI, it will help tremendously if this team slips up and wins 10 SEC games. Last year the SEC finished 5th in the RPI and got five teams in. There were three 10-8 teams in our conference: #42 Vanderbilt (NCAA), #68 Ole Miss (NIT) and #82 Alabama (NIT)

The Big 12 was the No. 2 RPI conference. Kansas State went 8-10 in conference and made the NCAAs with a #53 RPI. A 9-9 team in the No. 3 RPI conference made the Elite 8 last year. I don't want to go as far as saying 8-10 or 9-9 in the SEC would be good enough this year, but 10-8 with a 12-1 non conference puts us at 22-9 before the SEC Tournament. In a No. 1 or No. 2 RPI league, you are dancing.

 

[patdog]

RPI spits out what a ******** formula tells it to spit out. So, in that sense, it does tell the truth. But that truth isn't a good indication of which teams are better than others. In fact, it's a very poor one. Who you play is much more important than how you perform. Sagarin or Kenpom are much more accurate.

 

[engie]

It's not as good of formula as KenPom or Sagarin, but it gives you a good picture in basketball. It was built for basketball and in general does a pretty good job of covering average home court advantage in that sport(whereas it's outlandishly high for baseball)... Boyd ISR is much better for baseball too -- at least it was while he still had an interest in really staying on top of it, which he hasn't the past few years.

 

[kendesu]

This is a pretty cool metric. It shows a team's spot on the NCAA Tournament S-Curve based on current Strength of Record. SOR reflects the chance a typical 25th ranked team would have a team's record or better, given their schedule. As of today at 7-0, our SOR rank is 35, which would make us a 9 seed in the tournament. Obviously, it's early, but towards the end of the season this will show you who's in, who's out, and who's on the bubble.

 

[615dawg]

This is closer to what I am calculating. I have our TrueRPI - my term - at 37. This metric has us at 35. As you can see, it has some problems with Florida as well. #5 in the human polls but projected as a #6 seed.

Something isn't right with the Gators. They are a tourney team, but closer to the bubble than a top seed.