Scouting UCLA

[revcort]

UCLA Bruins
Conference: PAC12
Head Coach: Steve Alford [73-40 (.646) in 4th season; 536-275 (.660) as head coach]

Record: 8-0

Schedule
11/11/16 PACIFIC W 119-80
11/13/16 CSUN W 102-87
11/17/16 SAN DIEGO W 88-68
11/20/16 LONG BEACH STATE W 114-77
11/24/16 vs Portland W 99-77
11/25/16 vs Nebraska W 82-71
11/27/16 vs Texas A&M W 74-67
11/30/16 UC RIVERSIDE W 98-56

Game Info
Saturday, December 3 UCLA at Kentucky, 12:30 pm EST, TV: CBS

Probable Starters
C #40 Thomas Welsh 7-0 245 Jr 10.8pts, 9.8reb*, 2.5blks*, no 3pt threat
F #22 TJ Leaf 6-10 225 Fr 17.3pts, 9.0reb, 2.5ast, 1.4blks, .500 3fg
G #20 Bryce Alford 6-3 185 Sr 15.5pts, 2.8reb, 3.0ast, 1.3stls, .417 3fg
G #10 Isaac Hamilton 6-5 195 Sr 18.0pts*, 3.8reb, 3.5ast, 2.5tos, .441 3fg
G #2 Lonzo Ball 6-6 190 Fr 14.6pts, 4.9reb, 9.6ast*, 1.5stls*, 2.3tos, .474 3fg

Key Reserves
G #3 Aaron Holiday 6-1 185 So 12.9pts, 3.8reb, 4.1ast, .519 3fg*
F #14 Gyorgy Goloman 6-11 215 Jr 5.6pts, 3.7reb, no 3pt threat
C #13 Ike Anigbogu 6-10 250 Fr 3.0pts, 2.7reb, no 3pt threat
* Category leader

Team Stats
Points per game 97.0
Points allowed 72.9
Scoring margin +24.1
Field goal pct .553
FG% allowed .395
3-point FG pct .456
3pt% allowed .360
Free throw pct .748
Rebounds per game 41.5
Rebounds allowed 34.4
Rebounding margin +7.1
Assists per game 24.8
Assists allowed 11.8
Turnovers per game 12.1
Turnovers forced 13.4
Turnover margin +1.3
Assist/turnover ratio 2.0
Steals per game 6.0
Blocks per game 6.6

KenPom Analysis
Best Stats
#1 in effective FG% at 63.8%
#2 in 3pt% at 45.6% as a team
#3 in 2pt% at 61.1% as a team
#6 overall in offensive efficiency
Worst Stats
#271 in defensive turnover % (they don’t turn people over)
#268 in offensive rebounding % at 26.8%
#222 in 3pt % allowed at 36.0%
#235 in steal percentage at 7.7%
#57 overall in defensive efficiency

Analysis
This game between Kentucky and UCLA will feature 2 of the best offensive teams in the nation. According to Ken Pomeroy’s stats, Kentucky is rated #5 in offensive efficiency and UCLA is rated #6. There is little doubt UCLA will be the best offensive team UK has played this season. Their stats coming into this game are off the charts. They are averaging 97.0 points per game and shooting a whopping 55.3% from the field, including 45.6% from 3pt range as a team. They have 6 players averaging double digits in scoring on the season. They just destroyed UC Riverside by 42 points Wednesday night, so they’re probably feeling pretty good about right now. The offense appears to be in good shape, though the defense needs some work, which may spell LOSS for the Bruins when coming to Rupp Arena, especially considering the revenge factor UK has from the beatdown they experienced last season in Pauley Pavilion.

When you break down the players for UCLA, it’s tough to find a weak link. From an offensive standpoint, they can score from anywhere on the floor. The leading scorer on the team is Isaac Hamilton, the 6-5 195 senior guard who scores 18.0 points per game. He plays what amounts to a wing forward position in a traditional line-up, but in this system he’s their 3rd guard, and he’s not shy about shooting the ball. He shoots the ball more than any other player, averaging 13 shot attempts per game including 7 3pt attempts per contest. He shoots 44.1% from 3pt range, where he takes 56% of his shots. The point guard for the Bruins has been getting a large amount of attention for good reason. He’s 6-6 190 freshman Lonzo Ball. This guy is averaging 9.6 assists per game, which is ridiculous, and he’s one of the primary reasons this team is as efficient as it has been so far. He is a guy who will find the open man and he will hit that guy with a pass that puts him in good position to score. Though his shot is about as ugly as anything I’ve seen since Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, he somehow makes a good percentage at 57.7% overall and 47.4% from 3pt range. The only issue I see for Ball is that his release means he needs to be open to get off that shot. The third guard is a guy we’re all familiar with as UK fans, it’s the coach’s son Bryce Alford. He’s a guy who needs little room to get his shot off, but he’s actually only taking the 3rd most shots on the team this season. He’s averaging 15.5 points per game, good for #3 in scoring. He’s shooting 41.7 from 3pt range and 94.1% from the FT line. These 3 guards are going to require UK’s undivided attention.

The second leading scorer on the team starts in the frontcourt, the 6-10 225 freshman TJ Leaf. He’s averaging 17.3 points per game as has become a solid low post threat for the Bruins, though he can also step out and hit the 3 when open, making 8-16 from distance for 50%. He’s shooting 68.7% in FGs, which leads the team. He will be a handful for UK to handle. The other frontcourt starter is another guy UK fans know well, the 7ft 245lb junior Thomas Welsh, the guy who lit UK up last season with those elbow jumpers again and again- I think he just hit another one, actually. Could somebody guard this guy? He’s nearly averaging a double-double for UCLA this season, with 10.8 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots.

From the bench, the top player is Aaron Holiday, the 6-1 185 So who is 5th in scoring at 12.9 ppg and tied with Welsh in minutes played per game at 26.4 mpg. Holiday provides that scoring spark from the bench and plays mostly at the 2-spot. He’s second on the team in assists but he’s tied for most turnovers on the team with 2.5 per game, which is likely one reason he doesn’t get as many minutes as the other guards. After Holiday, the primary guys we might see from the bench are Gyorgy Goloman a 6-11 215 Jr forward who averages 12.9 minutes and scores 5.6pts and grabs 3.7reb and Ike Anigbogu, a 6-10 250 Freshman center who plays 9.3 minutes per game and doesn’t do much offensively.

A couple other key things: 1. UCLA’s average length of an offensive possession is 13.6 seconds. They shoot it quickly and they take the first open shot most times down the floor, but they don’t take many bad shots thanks to Ball and a bunch of guys who can knock them down. 2. Defensively, UCLA plays mostly man to man. I have to wonder if that will continue against UK. I think it will unless they get down by a large margin. I’m guessing they’ve looked at possibly playing some zone this week, but it may not matter. 3. UCLA’s weakness is their defense. They want to outscore people. They want to get up and down the floor and keep the pace high. That could be a significant problem for them against UK, since these Cats may be the best team in the nation at running the floor and finishing. UCLA doesn’t block a bunch of shots or force a bunch of steals. They don’t take chances on defense. They stay in front and try to force teams to take bad shots, and then they go to the other end and try to outscore you.

UCLA is running into a few things here that they haven’t seen yet this season. 1. Kentucky is not only rated slightly higher offensively than UCLA, they’re also an elite defensive team, rated #3 in defensive efficiency nationally. They will score some points on UK, without a doubt, but can they score enough against UK’s defense? 2. This will be their first road game of the year. Yes, they’ve played in a couple neutral site games, but they’ve yet to leave the state of California. This will be the first non-home atmosphere for Ball and Leaf, which will definitely make a difference. 3. While not all of these UK players remember last season, the UK fans who will be in Rupp on Saturday will remember that 87-77 loss at Pauley Pavilion very well and they will also understand the weight of the game, pitting the top 2 teams in national championships in NCAA history against each other. The crowd will be hyped and will love having a marquee opponent in Rupp, and they won’t waste the moment. 4. One final thing- this is a 12:30 pm EST start, which is 9:30 a.m. on the west coast. That doesn't bode well for UCLA, either. All of this adds up to a UK win, in my opinion.

Prediction: Kentucky 92 UCLA 76

 

[Fresh Start]

Here's my scouting report: They start 3 white guys.

I'm white so I can say that.

 

[kybassfan]

Thanks. Jeez, thought I was reading the psyche sheet for a track meet there for awhile. If nothing else, it should be an entertaining game to watch.

They have some decent length and like you say that big guy took us to the shed last year. Will be a nice test for Bam.

Teams that haven't learned how to lose yet can be pesky, don't you think?

 

[revcort]

Thanks. Jeez, thought I was reading the psyche sheet for a track meet there for awhile. If nothing else, it should be an entertaining game to watch.

They have some decent length and like you say that big guy took us to the shed last year. Will be a nice test for Bam.

Teams that haven't learned how to lose yet can be pesky, don't you think?

Agreed kybassfan, on that last comment. That first defeat doesn't come easily. Of course, that goes both ways in this one. KenPom predicts UK 90 UCLA 80

 

[rivercatinfl]

UCLA has size and shoot the ball well. They don't foul out and have some upper classmen who won't rattle easily.
I think we have more talent and depth, but this one will be close.
UK 85 UCLA 79.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Two teams...........equal on offense. We are better on defense. That's the game.

The only concern is they have shot the ball very well especially from 3. It wouldn't be surprising to see them go off from 3 and pull off an upset.

Not saying that's gonna happen but it's possible.

 

[Old Blue Fart]

Agree with MKGMVP about UCLA starting the three white guys.
Sorry, but my man Trump says we don' t have to be political correct anymore.
I have two black guys who work for me; they are big time UL fans. This morning over coffee they were talking and coming from two black dudes "aint no way UCLA can play that many white boys against UK; UK has ballers, and if we don't get our **** together, they will kill us too."
Now, while I like to hear that sort of stuff, we still have to play our best. Don't think so, go ask Bobby Petrino.

 

[CalsKittens]

I have a feeling that this game will be more similar to 2014 game than last years. Maybe not as brutal defensively but a trouncing non the less. We shall see for sure soon but I feel this team is special.

 

[westerncat]

Thanks IL Wildcat I have not see UCLA play this year but it sounds like it is going to be a fast paced game. I think our defense will win this game. Always enjoy reading your scouting reports.

 

[Guess Who]

Great team breakdown as per norm. Our excellent defensive prowess vs their excellent shooting %'s. As already mentioned it will be good test for Bam and some valuable experience for him. Hope he doesn't get in foul trouble but if so that's part of learning. I believe our 3 starting guards will have a field day with em. Sounds like Willis and Gabriel will be needed. maybe our depth will wear em down as well Cats & Bruins....I can't wait!

 

[willyclyde]

Here's my scouting report: They start 3 white guys.

I'm white so I can say that.

Any Egyptians?

 

[FlCATFan_rivals26961]

Enjoyable read OP.

It will be interesting to see how Cal decides to guard Leaf. This could be a real opportunity for Gabriel to show his game.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

Two teams...........equal on offense. We are better on defense. That's the game.

The only concern is they have shot the ball very well especially from 3. It wouldn't be surprising to see them go off from 3 and pull off an upset.

Not saying that's gonna happen but it's possible.

That is my only concern, that they make like 15 out of 25 3's or something like that.

 

[revcort]

That is my only concern, that they make like 15 out of 25 3's or something like that.

That would be the great equalizer, without a doubt. The good news on that front is that UK is #6 in the nation in 3pt% defense. UK holds teams to 24.6% from 3. One thing is sure- if our Cats leave UCLA open, they're gonna hit those shots. I expect tight man to man, switching pretty much everything on screens.

 

[katwest]

Geez, who would name a kid Lonzo?

 

[Dig Dirkler]

Geez, who would name a kid Lonzo?

Mr. and Mrs Ball, duh.

 

[katwest]

Mr. and Mrs Ball, duh.

Is that you MR. Ball?

 

[IndyCat1995]

Best team we have played thus far. I'm ready, lets do this thing.

 

[katwest]

Paybacks are hell, we simply weren't ready for the team we faced last year out there. This team is good and we need to be ready to play, that big guy killed us last year with the mid range shot, we can't let him get the ball and turn around and shoot with nobody on him.

 

[TheDude73]

Two teams...........equal on offense. We are better on defense. That's the game.

The only concern is they have shot the ball very well especially from 3. It wouldn't be surprising to see them go off from 3 and pull off an upset.

Not saying that's gonna happen but it's possible.

Given it's no secret that they can indeed shoot that 3, Cal should have our guys ready to get under their chins and stay there until they're forced to either launch a poor long-range jumper, or drive or pass or turn it over.

 

[TroutBum]

Thanks IL, excellent breakdown.

 

[The_Answer1313_rivals]

Given it's no secret that they can indeed shoot that 3, Cal should have our guys ready to get under their chins and stay there until they're forced to either launch a poor long-range jumper, or drive or pass or turn it over.

Yeah that's why I'm pumped for this game. We'll learn alot about how good this team is from this game. Finally facing a team with a really good offense.

 

[TheDude73]

Yeah that's why I'm pumped for this game. We'll learn alot about how good this team is from this game. Finally facing a team with a really good offense.

Let's just hope we aren't subjected to this new "rule" on impeding movement should their guards drop their shoulders and make contact. So far I've liked how our guys have managed that from a defensive standpoint, but what I've not been pleased with is we do have lapses where our guys don't get out on top and just put a hand up. UCLA will eat us up if we don't "get up there!" (as Cal screams).

 

[ImUTGagain]

Geez, who would name a kid Lonzo?

Have you seen his brother's names yet??

 

[nickhorvathsuxazz]

Thanks IL. I now feel well-armed to make my game score prediction.

 

[OldEvilleCat]

Thanks for the preview IL W. Looking forward to it...

FYI Evansville/Henderson folks...Does anybody remember Brad Leaf when he played for the University of Evansville back in the 80's. He is TJ Leafs father. No bearing on the outcome of the game...just FYI, if it hasn't already been talked about before.

 

[Blue Bigfoot]

Maybe it's just me, but some of those heights and weights listed don't seem right. I'm probably wrong, but Lonzo Ball doesn't look anywhere close to 6'6" Looks like he's closer to 6'2" to me. Then again Leaf doesn't look like he's 6-10, much less 225 to me. Doesn't look like he's 205 soaking wet.

 

[jrpross_rivals]

Awesome breakdown as always.

This should be a fun game to watch. 2 offensive juggernauts. I predict we win 175-129.

 

[Jakarii]

Great scouting report. After watching all of UCLA games though I can tell you Ball doesn't need to be open to get his shot off if open means catch and shoot, half of those threes he gets off the dribble via a very quick step back, dribble side step or jab step. It's very hard to block because he brings it from one said to the other

 

[ORCAT]

Thanks for another great analysis. From what I've heard and now read here I know I won't have an urge to yawn or blink in fear of missing something. Also, sounds like no chance to go from upper bleachers to restroom break during this game so I better bring an empty bottle to the game. Thanks again.

 

[Jakarii]

Lol. Damn you. I wanted to say that but I'm not white

Here's my scouting report: They start 3 white guys.

I'm white so I can say that.

 

[Jakarii]

So can we not pay some taxes and grab women etc?

Agree with MKGMVP about UCLA starting the three white guys.
Sorry, but my man Trump says we don' t have to be political correct anymore.
I have two black guys who work for me; they are big time UL fans. This morning over coffee they were talking and coming from two black dudes "aint no way UCLA can play that many white boys against UK; UK has ballers, and if we don't get our **** together, they will kill us too."
Now, while I like to hear that sort of stuff, we still have to play our best. Don't think so, go ask Bobby Petrino.

 

[Runt#1969]

Your scouting write-ups are always well-written and well thought out for our perspective. No other basketball message board has anything remotely close to the service you provide, my friend! So, as always, many thanks, and this particular scouting report is one of the three main ones I've been waiting to see since the preseason. I was curious as to what others would add, and I've been chomping at the bit to give a few thoughts for myself ... so without further ado !!!! .....

I think Fox will get the assignment on Ball, not only for the marquee matchup for the public's interest, but for several other reasons. Fox is as fast on his feet as we got. His hands are lightning quick too. Those two factors (plus the fact that our young Cat can play defense like few other freshmen guards I've ever seen - and the John Wall comparison on his defense is extremely pertinent here in this matchup). I am really interested to see how he does on Ball, with the understanding that, knowing Cal, he will put a wrinkle in that perceived matchup by getting Monk and Briscoe and even others (on switches, etc.) involved on the defensive side when focusing on Ball.

Although that is a big portion of the focus on slowing the Bruins down (some) and trying to impact the rest of them in how they get the ball and in what kind of position to shoot it in, it's not the only defensive focus.

We are in much better personnel-shape to take on their bigs. Here's a huge focus (no pun intended) for Cal and our coaching staff - this I am SURE OF.

Contrary to simply thinking how we make it hard for them to get uncontested 3pt. shots (emphasis on running them off the line and making twos instead of threes as much as possible) we have to make their big men fight for points, fight them inside for offensive rebounds on our end, as well as making it as hard as possible to pull down ANY rebounds on their end. Giving up second chance shots is what I am guessing as the biggest emphasis for Coach Cal and the other coaches to our whole team. Sure, that can be hotly debated, but I've got a sneaky feeling they're spending extra time on just this thing in getting ready for the Bruins.

On both of those cases, I think we are in really good shape. I also like the idea of having Briscoe on Alford for the most part (or at least as much as possible) and the other points of emphasis, at least for me, in trying to divine what Cal and his staff are taking a little extra time to instill as lessons in preparation for us are ....

Continued emphasis on playing hard defensively WITHOUT FOULING. Conversely, I think Cal is going to want us to attack attack attack, and try and draw them into fouling us.

Our kids have been really accomplished as any young UK team I can remember at not only getting to the foul line because of such speed and relentless attack transition offense, but also at FINISHING at the rim when they get there. Briscoe is superb at that, taking the contact and finishing, but the main way (at least, it has seemed so far to me) is that the rest of our young Cats finish at the rim by getting there and being in position before the play gets there for them TO finish it - and that's what the coaches stress. It's 90% of the war to get in position to finish at the rim for a pass to come to you so you're already there to make it.

Having said that, our young men are extremely athletic and strong so as to finish through the physical contact even without being the recipient of the very unselfish passing we exhibit. (how valuable that will be in sumo-play - err.... I mean in conference play, when that begins will be worth many wins)

So I guess, in the end, it really does come down to how well we defend.

In what I've seen of the Bruins, they aren't as fast nor as athletic as we are by a long shot. Also, from looking at the games I've seen them in - and comparing that to the exquisite scouting report notes - look at how they did against more defensive oriented teams - like aTm, and I think that gives us a much more accurate light to see them in. Yes, they're a great offensive team - against teams that don't play defense.

We play defense.

UK - 102
UCLA - 78

 

[Jakarii]

Ball is that tall. He's so fast and dribbl S low at times he may seem shorter but I've seen him when they played Leaf in Cali in H.S. He was 6'5 then. Leaf is also that tall and probably closer to 230 now because he's bigger now than he was when I saw him in H.S

Maybe it's just me, but some of those heights and weights listed don't seem right. I'm probably wrong, but Lonzo Ball doesn't look anywhere close to 6'6" Looks like he's closer to 6'2" to me. Then again Leaf doesn't look like he's 6-10, much less 225 to me. Doesn't look like he's 205 soaking wet.

 

[Blueisbest]

Another great preview by IL Wildcat. I look for a close game throughout with UK pulling away in the last 10 minutes and coasting to a 14 point win.

 

[Dakota25]

UK will be the best defensive team they have played yet this year and the game is in Rupp. People are worried about the three point shot. Yes UCLA will hit some threes but UK can shoot the ball well too and a fast paced high scoring game favors the more athletic team which happens to be UK. I love the fact that they only average 13 seconds a possession since again it just makes for a fast paced game.

UK 95
UCLA 80

 

[revcort]

Your scouting write-ups are always well-written and well thought out for our perspective. No other basketball message board has anything remotely close to the service you provide, my friend! So, as always, many thanks, and this particular scouting report is one of the three main ones I've been waiting to see since the preseason. I was curious as to what others would add, and I've been chomping at the bit to give a few thoughts for myself ... so without further ado !!!! .....

I think Fox will get the assignment on Ball, not only for the marquee matchup for the public's interest, but for several other reasons. Fox is as fast on his feet as we got. His hands are lightning quick too. Those two factors (plus the fact that our young Cat can play defense like few other freshmen guards I've ever seen - and the John Wall comparison on his defense is extremely pertinent here in this matchup). I am really interested to see how he does on Ball, with the understanding that, knowing Cal, he will put a wrinkle in that perceived matchup by getting Monk and Briscoe and even others (on switches, etc.) involved on the defensive side when focusing on Ball.

Although that is a big portion of the focus on slowing the Bruins down (some) and trying to impact the rest of them in how they get the ball and in what kind of position to shoot it in, it's not the only defensive focus.

We are in much better personnel-shape to take on their bigs. Here's a huge focus (no pun intended) for Cal and our coaching staff - this I am SURE OF.

Contrary to simply thinking how we make it hard for them to get uncontested 3pt. shots (emphasis on running them off the line and making twos instead of threes as much as possible) we have to make their big men fight for points, fight them inside for offensive rebounds on our end, as well as making it as hard as possible to pull down ANY rebounds on their end. Giving up second chance shots is what I am guessing as the biggest emphasis for Coach Cal and the other coaches to our whole team. Sure, that can be hotly debated, but I've got a sneaky feeling they're spending extra time on just this thing in getting ready for the Bruins.

On both of those cases, I think we are in really good shape. I also like the idea of having Briscoe on Alford for the most part (or at least as much as possible) and the other points of emphasis, at least for me, in trying to divine what Cal and his staff are taking a little extra time to instill as lessons in preparation for us are ....

Continued emphasis on playing hard defensively WITHOUT FOULING. Conversely, I think Cal is going to want us to attack attack attack, and try and draw them into fouling us.

Our kids have been really accomplished as any young UK team I can remember at not only getting to the foul line because of such speed and relentless attack transition offense, but also at FINISHING at the rim when they get there. Briscoe is superb at that, taking the contact and finishing, but the main way (at least, it has seemed so far to me) is that the rest of our young Cats finish at the rim by getting there and being in position before the play gets there for them TO finish it - and that's what the coaches stress. It's 90% of the war to get in position to finish at the rim for a pass to come to you so you're already there to make it.

Having said that, our young men are extremely athletic and strong so as to finish through the physical contact even without being the recipient of the very unselfish passing we exhibit. (how valuable that will be in sumo-play - err.... I mean in conference play, when that begins will be worth many wins)

So I guess, in the end, it really does come down to how well we defend.

In what I've seen of the Bruins, they aren't as fast nor as athletic as we are by a long shot. Also, from looking at the games I've seen them in - and comparing that to the exquisite scouting report notes - look at how they did against more defensive oriented teams - like aTm, and I think that gives us a much more accurate light to see them in. Yes, they're a great offensive team - against teams that don't play defense.

We play defense.

UK - 102
UCLA - 78

Thanks for the kind words runt69, and those are some excellent comments from you as well. Thanks for that contribution. The comments in the thread always call important things to my attention, so I personally appreciate that very much. Go Cats!

 

[brianpoe]

Another great preview by IL Wildcat. I look for a close game throughout with UK pulling away in the last 10 minutes and coasting to a 14 point win.

I nominate @IL Wildcat to replace Tipton.

 

[CatEye2010]

I'll petition Trump to name IL Wildcat as Secretary of Basketball, with Ashley Judd as Under Secretary :sunglasses:

 

[EmCats3]

One thing I'm watching for, as good of a passer as Ball is, he tends to make lazy passes at time. Anxious to see if we can capitalize on that. If we do Bruins better watch out.