Remaining Schedule

[FrankZ_RU93]

At 10 wins, I'm back scrutinizing our schedule again. Here's what I got at this point:

Leaning Win (6):
Fordham, PSU, NW, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois

Leaning Loss (10):
@SHU, @Wisc, @MSU, @Indiana, @Maryland, Wisc, @OSU, @Purdue, @NW, Maryland

Toss-Up (4):
@Iowa, @PSU, Minnesota, Michigan

20 feasible wins?? One can dream.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I broke this down differently

Best Fordham ...11-1

In the next 12 games...assume these five are losses
-at Wisconsin
-at Michigan state
-at Indiana
-at Maryland
-Wisconsin in MSG

Then ...think we can get five of these seven
-at seton hall
-penn state
-at Iowa
-Noethwestwern
-Nebraska
-At penn state
-Iowa

If so....that is 16-8 hearing inky the last 7 with 4 homes game

That's what I'm going to hope for...and think we can get

 

[RUPete]

Is Minnesota looking better this year? At first glance I would put them in the leaning win category.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

KEEPING IT REAL....

LEANING WINS (bull case gets us 2, base case gets 1)
Fordham @ MSG
Penn State

TOSS UPS (bull case gets us 5, base case gets 3)
NW, NEB, IOWA, MINNY, @PSU (a stretch), MD, ILL

DOUBTFULS (bull case 2, base case 1)
@SHU, @MSU, @Iowa, @MD, WISC @msg, @NW

MIRACLES (bull case 1 , base case 0)
@WIS, @IU, @OSU, @PUR

Raging bull has us at 20-11 (all 4 hit)
Regular bull has us at 17-14 (half hit)
Base Case 15-16
Bear Case 13-18

We are sharing the basketball, owning the glass, fighting on the correct side of screens, and winning our share of loose balls. At the end of the day 12,13,14,15,16,17+ doesn't mean as much as the fact the foundation is being built.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

I predicted 9-4 OOC and 6-12 in the B1G for a 15-16 regular season.

If we beat Fordham and lose to SHU as expected, we'll be 11-2 entering league-play.

If we could somehow manage to win two more B1G games than I predicted, well, I'd be happier than a pig in...

 

[bac2therac]

I am close to Greene Rice

just because there winnable games at the RAC does not mean we win them all. Those schools are all circling RU as well as their possible place to pick up a road victory.

I think likely wins would be Fordham and Penn State

Sure losses are at Indiana, at Wisconsin, Wisky MSG, at Purdue, at Mich State, at Maryland

Likely losses are at SHU, Maryland, Michigan, at Ohio State

Toss ups: Northwestern, at Northwestern, Iowa, at Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Illinois, at Penn State

So it puts RU at 2-10 with the 8 swing games., unless you think RU is winning all 8 of them then there is no shot at 20.....none. I think RU can go anywhere from 2-6 to 6-2 but most likely is going to go 4-4, with 5 of these at home, I like upshot to go 5-3 as well. That would put RU at 17-14/6-12...I think everyone would be pleased, even a split at 4-4 gets them 16-15/5-13 and that is an incredible job done by Pikiell this year.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

20 wins would put Pikiell in the national Coach of the Year conversation, not just B1G. But with a 10-1 start and being favored to get to 11-1, it would be a huge letdown to not get at least 15 wins on the season.

I won't say any particular game is a "sure loss" after seeing we beat Wisconsin at home in a year they made it to the Final Four. Anything can happen in one game in college basketball.

 

[RUinFla]

You guys check out what B1G schools have done in OOC against much better opposition than we have faced? Minnesota, for example? If we squeeze 4 B1G wins out, it will be an achievement. Would still be 16-16.
TL

 

[FrankZ_RU93]

Over .500 is the next goal for me at this point. Anything beyond that is gravy.

Live in MN, so I am aware - hence the toss-up bit at home.

 

[ruman]

20 wins would put Pikiell in the national Coach of the Year conversation, not just B1G. But with a 10-1 start and being favored to get to 11-1, it would be a huge letdown to not get at least 15 wins on the season.

I won't say any particular game is a "sure loss" after seeing we beat Wisconsin at home in a year they made it to the Final Four. Anything can happen in one game in college basketball.

17-14 and Pikiell should be B1G coach of the year

 

[PiscatawayMike]

17-14 and Pikiell should be B1G coach of the year

He should be, but in the eyes of the voters RU would have to finish with at least eight B1G wins.

 

[seels2662]

To me a huge part of this is the RAC being the RAC. If you look at it simply on paper, GRF or Bac is probably right. But if we get the bigger and louder home crowds, then it gets interesting. Are we better than Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern? Probably not. But we are close enough that a big home field advantage would tip the scales. Add home games against Iowa, Illinois, PSU, games we will probably be favored in, then all of a sudden we are an upset or two, something a loud RAC is famous for, from seeing 6 wins or even better.

I have an idea, something I will probably post in its own thread in a week or so, Nebraska is our first weekend conference home game (besides the PSU game on New Years), a game that I don't think the students will be back for. Lets make that a Scarletnation.com night, everyone on this site get tickets and lets make so WE make a difference against a team we could beat with a big home field advantage.

 

[RUONTHERISE]

My prediction before season was 18-13. Sticking with that.

 

[mikefla]

I dont ever over analyse. I just tend to hope for the best.
This year all I hope for is:
-we go 11-2 in the OOC:boom:
-get 5 wins for a winning season:boom:
which wasnt even on my radar when the season opened
I dont care where the 5 wins come from...I think we will STEAL a few & beat someone good[banana]
and we may also lose to someone we SHOULD have beaten:scream:

I am just going to enjoy EVERY game.....[cheers]
because
-I know we once again have a coach with a definite plan
-& we have some kids with some talent and seemingly a bit of heart
-the new coach doesnt even have HIS guys here yet
despite it all..we are building a bit of a reputation and some
RESPECT

 

[ruhoops21]

To me a huge part of this is the RAC being the RAC. If you look at it simply on paper, GRF or Bac is probably right. But if we get the bigger and louder home crowds, then it gets interesting. Are we better than Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern? Probably not. But we are close enough that a big home field advantage would tip the scales. Add home games against Iowa, Illinois, PSU, games we will probably be favored in, then all of a sudden we are an upset or two, something a loud RAC is famous for, from seeing 6 wins or even better.

I have an idea, something I will probably post in its own thread in a week or so, Nebraska is our first weekend conference home game (besides the PSU game on New Years), a game that I don't think the students will be back for. Lets make that a Scarletnation.com night, everyone on this site get tickets and lets make so WE make a difference against a team we could beat with a big home field advantage.

Syllabus week begins Tuesday, January 17. If the team continues to win, I would HOPE a Saturday afternoon game against a beatable B1G opponent would result in a sizable -- and LOUD -- student turnout. But as we saw with football, no guarantees, especially when tip-off is at noon.

 

[MusicFreaks]

I honestly think we've already exceeded expectations or this season. I know we're not satisfied, but still ahead of schedule. Just enjoy the ride right now. W/L count but this team is exceeding expectations already. The wins and losses will follow!!

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Believe it or not I am not writing off either Wisconsin game. The game will be equivalent of 72 minutes with both sides playing a very slow tempo. Player for player I think we can match up defensively. Sa on Happ we have a shot. Wisconsin will take us lightly.

Not expecting a win, but not assuming a loss.

 

[bac2therac]

Believe it or not I am not writing off either Wisconsin game. The game will be equivalent of 72 minutes with both sides playing a very slow tempo. Player for player I think we can match up defensively. Sa on Happ we have a shot. Wisconsin will take us lightly.

Not expecting a win, but not assuming a loss.

they are tough at home, if the first game was at MSG Id say we could have snuck up on them...what are they shooting from 3 this year?

 

[biazza38]

I broke this down differently

Best Fordham ...11-1

In the next 12 games...assume these five are losses
-at Wisconsin
-at Michigan state
-at Indiana
-at Maryland
-Wisconsin in MSG

Then ...think we can get five of these seven
-at seton hall
-penn state
-at Iowa
-Noethwestwern
-Nebraska
-At penn state
-Iowa

If so....that is 16-8 hearing inky the last 7 with 4 homes game

That's what I'm going to hope for...and think we can get

Five of those seven is generous

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Only :weary: 35%

 

[DocRU]

Its been a decade of losing. Since the 2005-2006 19-14 NIT, 10 straight losing seasons, an average of 12 wins per season. 5 of those seasons over 20 losses, including the last 3 in a row. Highest win total of 15 achieved only 3 times.
At 10-1 RU only needs to go 6-14 the rest of the way for a winning season!
10-10 for an impossible 20 win season and Coach of the Year honors for Mr. Pikiell!

 

[RUChoppin]

I may be being overly optimistic, but I think that "on any given night" we could put a scare into or knock off anyone in the conference.

While our 3-point shooting and FT shooting hasn't been very good, and certainly hasn't been consistent... it's not out of the realm of of possibility that things could "click" on a night when an opponent is having a bad shooting night or finds a couple of its stars in foul trouble. That's much more likely to happen at home, of course, with the support of a raucous RAC... but the way we've been playing (focusing on rebounds, defense, ball movement, hustle, etc) makes me feel like no game is truly "out of reach" if a couple of our players manage to get hot on the same night.

On the whole, I wouldn't necessarily *expect* that to happen, and certainly not with any regularity... but I think it's a much more realistic proposition this year than last year. And while we'll certainly be underdogs (sometimes large underdogs) in games this year, I don't necessarily look forward at the schedule and think any game is unwinnable.

I still think we're likely to win in the 4-6 conference games range (which might change after I see how we play over the next 3-4 games), but I think the rest of the games will be much more competitive than they have been in recent years.

 

[AshSaturday]

I predicted 9-4 OOC and 6-12 in the B1G for a 15-16 regular season.

If we beat Fordham and lose to SHU as expected, we'll be 11-2 entering league-play.

If we could somehow manage to win two more B1G games than I predicted, well, I'd be happier than a pig in...

Mike you seem to have "poop" on your mind-coincidentally after that clam chowder..

 

[AshSaturday]

To me a huge part of this is the RAC being the RAC. If you look at it simply on paper, GRF or Bac is probably right. But if we get the bigger and louder home crowds, then it gets interesting. Are we better than Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern? Probably not. But we are close enough that a big home field advantage would tip the scales. Add home games against Iowa, Illinois, PSU, games we will probably be favored in, then all of a sudden we are an upset or two, something a loud RAC is famous for, from seeing 6 wins or even better.

I have an idea, something I will probably post in its own thread in a week or so, Nebraska is our first weekend conference home game (besides the PSU game on New Years), a game that I don't think the students will be back for. Lets make that a Scarletnation.com night, everyone on this site get tickets and lets make so WE make a difference against a team we could beat with a big home field advantage.

Agreed and likely to happen. However do not underestimate the turnout in the student section. At least in the distant past when RU was good the student tickets seemed either to be used-or passed on to friends during break.

At least in the past one could purchase a guest ticket in the student section for (then ) $10. Most students live no more than 60-90 minutes from the RAC if that. Plus there are no classes during break so students who might ordinarily attend games will come out.

I expect the student section to be a tough ticket no later than the Penn State game.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Five of those seven is generous

It is...but I also have us 0 for 5 in the sure losses...where maybe we pull an upset

A little bit of balance out

 

[Colbert17!]

Don't know why but I'm getting this tingle up my leg......

RU-67
SH-62

 

[biazza38]

It is...but I also have us 0 for 5 in the sure losses...where maybe we pull an upset

A little bit of balance out

I see your point, but it's still a huge step. I think a lot of people are overreacting to the start. I'm excited, but I'm not going to predict more conference wins all of a sudden. Six will be a good start. Winning is extremely difficult in conference when you're not a top tier team.

 

[fluoxetine]

Likely Win - None
Lean Win - vs Fordham
Toss Up - Penn St, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois
Lean Loss - at Iowa, Northwestern, at Penn St, Michigan, Maryland
Likely Loss - at Seton Hall, at Wisconsin, at Michigan St, at Indiana, at Maryland, vs Wisconsin, at Ohio St, at Purdue, at Northwestern

Outcome Distribution
10-21 : 0.1%
11-20 : 0.7%
12-19 : 3.2%
13-18 : 8.7%
14-17 : 15.9%
15-16 : 20.9%
16-15 : 20.4%
17-14 : 15.2%
18-13 : 8.8%
19-12 : 4.0%
20-11 : 1.4%
21-10 : 0.4%
22-9 : 0.1%
23-8 or better : <0.05%

 

[RU-ROCS]

KEEPING IT REAL....

LEANING WINS (bull case gets us 2, base case gets 1)
Fordham @ MSG
Penn State

TOSS UPS (bull case gets us 5, base case gets 3)
NW, NEB, IOWA, MINNY, @PSU (a stretch), MD, ILL

DOUBTFULS (bull case 2, base case 1)
@SHU, @MSU, @Iowa, @MD, WISC @msg, @NW

MIRACLES (bull case 1 , base case 0)
@WIS, @IU, @OSU, @PUR

Raging bull has us at 20-11 (all 4 hit)
Regular bull has us at 17-14 (half hit)
Base Case 15-16
Bear Case 13-18

We are sharing the basketball, owning the glass, fighting on the correct side of screens, and winning our share of loose balls. At the end of the day 12,13,14,15,16,17+ doesn't mean as much as the fact the foundation is being built.

I see it very much the same way. Wouldn't it be great for the raging bulls to be right for once regarding RU!

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

17 wins should equal a small parade down college av!!!

 

[BoroKnight]

I am loving what Coach brings to the table, but I fear a lot of you are going to be very disappointed with the final record. I won't be, as we'll be in more games than we have been in recent years. We'll be a tough out, but most of the time still an out. I just don't see it this year.

The good news is it won't matter. People will see with their own eyes this team going toe to toe with the big boys and putting in quality efforts and see the signs of better outcomes in the near future. But this year? If we're over .500 I'll be thrilled. Just can't see much better than 16-15.

 

[RUich]

17-14 and Pikiell should be B1G coach of the year

14-17 should get him the award with the way RU has played in the BIG![cheers]

 

[RutgHoops]

NIT Finals team was 16-2 at home. We will finish OOC at 9-0 at the RAC. Win at home.

 

[Dpgru]

Our schedule has been the tale of two seasons. Season one was 12 games long against admittedly weak team (excluding Miami). That season is over and we have learned that we are not in that league. RU is not a bad basketball team. The dumpster fire that was RU basketball has been extinguished. Friday begins the second season for this team. This season is 19 games long against admittedly high quality opponents. Where we belong in this group we will not know until the dust clears. Predicting how we will do is almost impossible simply because the games we have played thus far haven't told us how good we are, they have only told us that we do jot belong with those teams. So I will take the rest of them one at a time and expect to compete in every one of them. I will not be surprised by any victory or any loss. But we are, IMO, way ahead of schedule.

 

[RU848789]

I dont ever over analyse. I just tend to hope for the best.
This year all I hope for is:
-we go 11-2 in the OOC:boom:
-get 5 wins for a winning season:boom:
which wasnt even on my radar when the season opened
I dont care where the 5 wins come from...I think we will STEAL a few & beat someone good[banana]
and we may also lose to someone we SHOULD have beaten:scream:

I am just going to enjoy EVERY game.....[cheers]
because
-I know we once again have a coach with a definite plan
-& we have some kids with some talent and seemingly a bit of heart
-the new coach doesnt even have HIS guys here yet
despite it all..we are building a bit of a reputation and some
RESPECT

Good post. Only comment is I'm pretty sure you have a typo, somehow, since I can't imagine you're hoping we lose to SHU to go 11-2 OOC.

 

[RU848789]

I predicted 9-4 OOC and 6-12 in the B1G for a 15-16 regular season.

If we beat Fordham and lose to SHU as expected, we'll be 11-2 entering league-play.

If we could somehow manage to win two more B1G games than I predicted, well, I'd be happier than a pig in...

Think I had almost the same "preseason" prediction (I cheated and made mine after the Drexel game) - think I had 10-3/6-12 for 16-15. If we beat a good SHU team on the road, that means two things. First, we'd move to 12-1 OOC, obviously, but it would also mean we're even better than I thought, which, in turn, means that being a bubble team with 19-20 regular season wins isn't a remote dream. Not saying I'm counting on that, but it brings it into the realm of possibility for me. Which would be unbelievable given where this team was the past 3 years (or 10 years).

 

[mikefla]

Good post. Only comment is I'm pretty sure you have a typo, somehow, since I can't imagine you're hoping we lose to SHU to go 11-2 OOC.

oh heck no.. I HOPE we beat SHU

we can STILL have a winning season(the list was my MINIMUM)if we lose to SHU
heck I HOPE we get MORE than 5 wins in the B10...but 5 was my minimum
16-15 is our minimum "winning " season
:sunglasses:

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

KEEPING IT REAL....

LEANING WINS (bull case gets us 2, base case gets 1)
Fordham @ MSG
Penn State

TOSS UPS (bull case gets us 5, base case gets 3)
NW, NEB, IOWA, MINNY, @PSU (a stretch), MD, ILL

DOUBTFULS (bull case 2, base case 1)
@SHU, @MSU, @Iowa, @MD, WISC @msg, @NW

MIRACLES (bull case 1 , base case 0)
@WIS, @IU, @OSU, @PUR

Raging bull has us at 20-11 (all 4 hit)
Regular bull has us at 17-14 (half hit)
Base Case 15-16
Bear Case 13-18

We are sharing the basketball, owning the glass, fighting on the correct side of screens, and winning our share of loose balls. At the end of the day 12,13,14,15,16,17+ doesn't mean as much as the fact the foundation is being built.

kenpom projected record now 16.64 -14.36 (17-14)

we get a leaner PLUS NEB moves from toss up to leaning

 

[bac2therac]

what is Kenpom saying now....Greene Rice your initial post in this thread is on the money

 

[FrankZ_RU93]

Should have known better than to put any hope in this program. Back to silence mode, and assuming every game is a loss.