Regional baseball time. Decisions, decisions....

[thekimmer]

How do we set up pitching? Who do you start in game 1? Who is your #3? Is Fristoe back in the mix at all? How do you use Sims? Do you pitch him on consecutive games? Who plays 3B? Who plays LF? Do you change the order up any?

I think I would start Harding in game 1. He started 2 mid-week games this year and samford was one of them. He threw 3.1 scoreless innings scattering 4 hits with 2Ks. Also, Samford should not be able to load up with right handed batters like SEC teams did against him. Going to have to take off the kid gloves with Sims now that every game is life or death. We need to use him at least twice this weekend and should not hesitate to use him on consecutive days if need be short of him throwing 40 or 50 one day.

I would start James at 3B. Leggett is just not that much better in the field to justify keeping his bat in the order. I think Cumbest should start in LF and Clark at DH.

All of this of course is just random fan drivel as I am wholly unqualified to make such decisions and trust Lemonis et al to pull the right levers.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

You start McCleod then Bednar. Don't overthink things, don't disrespect your opponent. Not to mention this gets everybody on the same routine for the Supers.

Harding can't start, he's been bad in that role, not sure why this keeps being brought up. This is not midweek.

Agree on James, Cumbest and Clark. Though I'm alright with Skinner against right-handers.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

Yogi say “Throw your ace & set the pace” - now the question is do we really have an ace right now?

If we are determine not to start Mac or Bednar on Friday, he needs to pitch either Fristoe or Cade Smith and plan for a quick hook to go to Harding at the first sign of trouble.

I agree about James at 3B and need to platoon Cumbest/Skinner in LF based on pitcher.

 

[dawgstudent]

Start MacLeod. He isn't strong enough to save for another team in my opinion. This team doesn't have a true ace so just roll with your normal staff.

 

[ronpolk]

Yogi say “Throw your ace & set the pace” - now the question is do we really have an ace right now?

If we are determine not to start Mac or Bednar on Friday, he needs to pitch either Fristoe or Cade Smith and plan for a quick hook to go to Harding at the first sign of trouble.

I agree about James at 3B and need to platoon Cumbest/Skinner in LF based on pitcher.

Cade Smith? What has he pitched like 10 innings this year? Why start him?

I wouldn’t blame Lemonis if he started Harding. I would be tempted to do that too. But I think if it were my call I’d start Mac and then Bednar. Just hope both of them work deep and don’t get too much in the pen.

As for the lineup. I’d go James and third, clark in LF, Hatcher at first and Hancock DH.

I know Hatcher has not been good but I feel like he’s better than Hancock at first and no worse than Skinner at the plate. I could make a case for Cumbest in LF. If we did that, I’d go Hancock at first and DH Clark.

 

[Drebin]

Cade Smith? What has he pitched like 10 innings this year? Why start him?

I wouldn’t blame Lemonis if he started Harding. I would be tempted to do that too. But I think if it were my call I’d start Mac and then Bednar. Just hope both of them work deep and don’t get too much in the pen.

As for the lineup. I’d go James and third, clark in LF, Hatcher at first and Hancock DH.

I know Hatcher has not been good but I feel like he’s better than Hancock at first and no worse than Skinner at the plate. I could make a case for Cumbest in LF. If we did that, I’d go Hancock at first and DH Clark.

I like your idea about playing Hatcher. There's an argument to make that he could potentially get hot, and at the very least would be better than Skinner or Leggett. This isn't his first rodeo.

 

[thekimmer]

Harding has struggled as a starter?????

You start McCleod then Bednar. Don't overthink things, don't disrespect your opponent. Not to mention this gets everybody on the same routine for the Supers.

Harding can't start, he's been bad in that role, not sure why this keeps being brought up..

Harding has started a grand total 5 games this season. He had a bad start vs Mizzou which was a stinker for sure but then so did everybody else that weekend. The other 4 starts were 3.1 vs TCU 1 hit 1 run, 5.0 vs USM 2 hits 1 run, 5.0 vs LA 3 hits 0 runs and 3.1 vs SAMFORD 4 hits 0 runs. Three of those 4 are tournament teams, one is a 2 seed and one is a NS. The notion that he's been bad as a starter is a MYTH.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

I'm starting to think Cade Smith might be your answer (for the championship game and ultimately third starter). Give him a shot, and if we lose, you still have Fristoe for the final.

Stone Simmons is another. Hard choices.

 

[Drebin]

I'm starting to think Cade Smith might be your answer (for the championship game and ultimately third starter). Give him a shot, and if we lose, you still have Fristoe for the final.

I'd rather start Brandon Smith in that sceanrio.

 

[The Peeper]

I know Hatcher has not been good but I feel like he’s better than Hancock at first and no worse than Skinner at the plate

Umm, you're wrong there. On the SEC.com stats page, they list the TOP 100 batters in the conference. Hatcher is dead last at #100 and hitting .186 Don't get me wrong, Skinner is not much better. He started out hot and has spiraled down since and could be right there w/ Hatcher if he had as many AB's. Skinner has to lead the confernece w/ ground outs to 2B/1B We don't want either of them batting.

 

[maroonmania]

Yogi say “Throw your ace & set the pace” - now the question is do we really have an ace right now?

If we are determine not to start Mac or Bednar on Friday, he needs to pitch either Fristoe or Cade Smith and plan for a quick hook to go to Harding at the first sign of trouble.

I agree about James at 3B and need to platoon Cumbest/Skinner in LF based on pitcher.

The bigger problem is that not only do we not really have an ace right now, its that we don't have a 3rd starter that is dependable in any way that you would feel good about starting against an NCAA tournament team. If Missouri can put up 16 runs against our 3rd starter and the other pitchers we would use with him, then anyone can. We are just not in a position right now to not start MacLeod on Friday because we need Bednar to start Game 2 and you don't want to twist around your whole rotation. You do need to consider having the rotation ready for a Super as well the next week.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

I'd rather start Brandon Smith in that sceanrio.

I'm not against it but he scares me too, would rather see him relieve McCleod.

 

[Drebin]

I'm not against it but he scares me too, would rather see him relieve McCleod.

Brandon Smith scares me against good SEC teams. But it would be a different story here.

 

[Phil Wenneck.sixpack]

I think you stay with the usual front 2 guys and don't try and get cute.

It's going to be critical that we keep the ball down. Samford and especially VCU can drive some balls out in a hurry. Our ballpark is already hitter friendly but the wind this time of year is prone to carry balls even more. Samford has already seen Harding once and I don't trust Brandon Smith in this scenario. If he keeps the ball down, that's one thing but when he doesn't, it's a BP fastball. I'd roll the dice and play Cumbest in Left with Clark DH full time. No matter what the matchups are. Skinner isn't going to help us.

 

[DAWGS1.sixpack]

I’d go McCleod, Bednar and then a combo of B Smith, Fristoe, Harding, Simmons, Sims on Sunday - this is assuming we start 2-0 and are not in losers bracket on Sunday.
Saturday’s game against VCU is making me real nervous. Hell I’m a little concerned about Samford Friday afternoon.

 

[thekimmer]

I would submit to you that starting Harding is not getting cute, it makes sense. He is 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 44 IP, 5 starts, BA .224. Macleod is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA in 70 IP, 15 starts, BA .233. Bednar 6-1, 3.23 ERA in 70 IP, 11 starts, BA .228.

 

[Xenomorph]

Unpopular opinion: Don't start Macleod against Samford or Maholm vs Middle Tenn.

 

[Apoplectic_Objurgator]

I would pitch McLeod Thursday morning and Sunday afternoon.
- signed Mike Bianco

 

[57stratdawg]

Fri - MacLeod
Sat - Bednar
Sun - RHP / Harding

I like the idea of telling MacLeod that he's throwing 90+ pitches, now go get me 21 outs. Hopefully we're scoring enough that we don't have to burn a big arm out of the pen after him. Plus, I don't think we can start MacLeod on Saturday. Bednar is our ace. We can't risk going 0-2 without throwing Bednar. Which means holding MacLeod until Sunday gives him nearly 10 days off which seems less than ideal.

I just don't think we can have Forsythe and Leggett in the same lineup. I'm starting James at 3B. Hatcher took some good swings in the SECT; maybe he's started to turn the corner. Clark is in my lineup.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Unpopular opinion: Don't start Macleod against Samford or Maholm vs Middle Tenn.

Considering that Bednar is our true ace, yeah, it should be an unpopular opinion.

 

[Bulldogg31]

Harding, then Macleod, then Bednar.

If you can’t beat the 4 seed with a midweek or #3 starter then you shouldn’t win your regional.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Harding, then Macleod, then Bednar.

If you can’t beat the 4 seed with a midweek or #3 starter then you shouldn’t win your regional.

If you can’t win 1 out of 2 with your 3rd and 4th pitcher against your opponent‘s 4th and 5th pitcher then you shouldn’t win your regional.

That’s why coaches will optimize their pitching for going 2-0 across the country this weekend.

 

[thekimmer]

Harding, then Macleod, then Bednar.

If you can’t beat the 4 seed with a midweek or #3 starter then you shouldn’t win your regional.

Not to mention Harding is statistically better than both Mac & Bednar and has pitched against some really good teams. That mizzou debacle is the one that has everybody gun shy and I will admit that one was about as bad as it gets.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

If you can’t win 1 out of 2 with your 3rd and 4th pitcher against your opponent‘s 4th and 5th pitcher then you shouldn’t win your regional.

That’s why coaches will optimize their pitching for going 2-0 across the country this weekend.

^^^ This.

Bulldogg31, you do not know what you're talking about.

 

[bulldogcountry1]

I would start Harding against a heavy LH hitting lineup, if there even is one. Nobody has shown great consistency this season, so I don’t think it matters that much. You really just have to look at matchups and put each one in the best position to succeed.

 

[thekimmer]

If you can’t win 1 out of 2 with your 3rd and 4th pitcher against your opponent‘s 4th and 5th pitcher then you shouldn’t win your regional.

That’s why coaches will optimize their pitching for going 2-0 across the country this weekend.

Well, let's see what Lemonis did in 2019. Our unquestioned ace was Ethan Small. The other two guys were Plumlee and Ginn. They flip-flopped from #2 to #3 starter during the campaign with Ginn ending the season as the #2. Ginn drew the game 1 start vs Southern. Small threw game 2 and Plumlee brought us home in game 3.

Based on that one data point it looks like Lemonis favors his second best arm for game 1, his ace for game 2 and third best for game 3. In 2019 that required moving the 2nd starter up to Friday but not this year. So using this as a guide I predict Macleod will start game 1, Bednar game 2 and Harding/Fristoe/Smith game 3. I have favored Harding in game 1 but I really can't argue with the logic of starting Mac because he has been so up-and-down this season we really might benefit from him starting against a team that potentially has a little margin for error. Bednar is perhaps our most consistent guy so he would be best suited for what is likely to be the 2 seed. Then if we win that one then you really have some leeway having 2 games to win one.

 

[ronpolk]

Well, let's see what Lemonis did in 2019. Our unquestioned ace was Ethan Small. The other two guys were Plumlee and Ginn. They flip-flopped from #2 to #3 starter during the campaign with Ginn ending the season as the #2. Ginn drew the game 1 start vs Southern. Small threw game 2 and Plumlee brought us home in game 3.

Based on that one data point it looks like Lemonis favors his second best arm for game 1, his ace for game 2 and third best for game 3. In 2019 that required moving the 2nd starter up to Friday but not this year. So using this as a guide I predict Macleod will start game 1, Bednar game 2 and Harding/Fristoe/Smith game 3. I have favored Harding in game 1 but I really can't argue with the logic of starting Mac because he has been so up-and-down this season we really might benefit from him starting against a team that potentially has a little margin for error. Bednar is perhaps our most consistent guy so he would be best suited for what is likely to be the 2 seed. Then if we win that one then you really have some leeway having 2 games to win one.

It’s probably not the best comparison when looking at the game vs southern. I bet if we were playing southern again this year, there is no way we’d throw Mac or Bednar.

 

[Bulldogg31]

^^^ This.

Bulldogg31, you do not know what you're talking about.

So if we had gotten Jackson State or Southern as our 4 seed you’d still throw Macleod or Bednar? If not then you’re just respecting Samford more as a 4 seed than others which is fine.

Personally I view 4 seeds as closer to our midweek opponents than our SEC weekend opponents.

Also, I’m perfectly fine being wrong. I’ve never coached college baseball so I have absolutely no experience or expertise in that field.

 

[Seinfeld]

Agreed. Is it risky? Maybe, but if we truly require one of our top 2 arms to beat a team that hasn’t won a Q1 game all year, we never had a chance in this thing anyway. Roll the dice and see what happens

 

[blacklistedbully]

Interested in hearing from Bruce Castoria and Todd4State.

 

[Russ Wheeler]

Interested in hearing from Bruce Castoria and Todd4State.

View attachment 20463

 

[johnson86-1]

It’s probably not the best comparison when looking at the game vs southern. I bet if we were playing southern again this year, there is no way we’d throw Mac or Bednar.

I think we might still would just because I think Bednar is pitching game #2, and I'm not sure we'd want to push Mac back to third and so far off his normal pitching routine.

I'd be all about saving a true ace for game two and going #3, #1, #2 starters in order. This year is just weird because we're already pitching #2, #1, #3 on a normal weekend, and we don't even know who our #3 is at this point or what we're going to get out of whomever it is. I don't think you disrupt Mac's routine like that to move the #3 starter to game 1 when nobody has been consistent enough to win the #3 starer job.

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Not only will we not save MacLeod or Bednar for Game 3, but Kumar Rocker will pitch against Presbyterian.

 

[mrbinsdog]

I read somewhere that 8 of Samford’s starting hitters are right handed

Not only will we not save MacLeod or Bednar for Game 3, but Kumar Rocker will pitch against Presbyterian.

Might want to start a right hander

 

[Quincy A. Wagstaff]

Might want to start a right hander

That I would be fine with: Throwing the best matchups for Games 1 and 2.

What I disagree with is the idea we should save a pitcher for Game 3 because we should be able to beat Samford easily. No matter who we end up seeing Friday, I believe Lemonis is trying to win Games 1 and 2, not save someone for Game 3.

 

[MSUDC11]

Might want to start a right hander

Who do you trust though? I don’t know that I would love the idea of throwing Bednar that early in the tournament. And any other righty would be an enormous gamble.

 

[GloryDawg]

I say get into the wining bracket. Start Mac and be done with it. I am guessing the other three will be starting their Friday guy so we should too.