This analysis didn't really give me the result I expected honestly, but let's just look at the data:
I was kind of expecting to see that we had consistently been worse at the beginning of the season compared to the season as a whole, but this does not seem to be the case (though it might hold if expanded to a larger beginning than five games, not sure).
Historically we have been abysmal on offense and amazing on defense in the first five games (for reference 98.0 offense would have been #310 last year and 88.4 defense would have been #2). We have then tended to get better on offense and worse on defense about equally.
Interestingly, I remember our offense looking good at the beginning of the 20-21 season but the hot start seems to have mostly been driven by defense.
Through the first five games this season we have the best offense Pike has ever had (either for the first five games or a whole season) and similarly the worst defense (either for the first five games or the whole season) by significant amounts.
Anyway I don't have anything much to conclude from this but here it is.
| Season | 1st 5 AdjO | 1st 5 AdjD | 1st 5 Net | Season AdjO | Season AdjD | Season Net |
| 2017 | 104.7 | 101.8 | 3.0 | 101.7 | 99.2 | 2.5 |
| 2018 | 92.6 | 84.2 | 8.5 | 98.5 | 95.4 | 3.1 |
| 2019 | 94.9 | 81.8 | 13.1 | 105.7 | 97.3 | 8.4 |
| 2020 | 101.6 | 90.1 | 11.4 | 107.5 | 91.0 | 16.5 |
| 2021 | 106.8 | 87.1 | 19.7 | 106.7 | 92.1 | 14.6 |
| 2022 | 88.9 | 94.0 | -5.1 | 106.6 | 96.3 | 10.3 |
| 2023 | 97.2 | 79.5 | 17.8 | 105.4 | 91.0 | 14.4 |
| 2024 | 97.4 | 88.6 | 8.8 | 98.3 | 92.1 | 6.2 |
| Average | 98.0 | 88.4 | 9.6 | 103.8 | 94.3 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | 111.0 | 103.7 | 7.3 | ? | ? |
I was kind of expecting to see that we had consistently been worse at the beginning of the season compared to the season as a whole, but this does not seem to be the case (though it might hold if expanded to a larger beginning than five games, not sure).
Historically we have been abysmal on offense and amazing on defense in the first five games (for reference 98.0 offense would have been #310 last year and 88.4 defense would have been #2). We have then tended to get better on offense and worse on defense about equally.
Interestingly, I remember our offense looking good at the beginning of the 20-21 season but the hot start seems to have mostly been driven by defense.
Through the first five games this season we have the best offense Pike has ever had (either for the first five games or a whole season) and similarly the worst defense (either for the first five games or the whole season) by significant amounts.
Anyway I don't have anything much to conclude from this but here it is.