Path to the championship - part 2

[OSU48]

With the recent announcement that Gross is out for the year, I looked at a case where there would be a competitive race for the championship. For OSU I assumed the following places: 1,1,3,5,0,3,1,5,4,1 with place points being: 24,24,15,9,2,18,23,11,11,23 resulting in 160 team points. For PSU assumed the following places: 0,4,5,7,1,1,2,3,1,3 with the following place points: 2,11,9,6,27,24,23,15,28,15 resulting in 160 team points. Lots of uncertainty of course about both placing and place points due to bonus points. I did give nolf and nickal more 1st place points.

Food for discussion and thought ....

 

[OkieSpladle]

With the recent announcement that Gross is out for the year, I looked at a case where there would be a competitive race for the championship. For OSU I assumed the following places: 1,1,3,5,0,3,1,5,4,1 with place points being: 24,24,15,9,2,18,23,11,11,23 resulting in 160 team points. For PSU assumed the following places: 0,4,5,7,1,1,2,3,1,3 with the following place points: 2,11,9,6,27,24,23,15,28,15 resulting in 160 team points. Lots of uncertainty of course about both placing and place points due to bonus points. I did give nolf and nickal more 1st place points.

Food for discussion and thought ....

Always interesting to look at. Obviously, very optimistic for Oklahoma State, though I thought it was interesting that you have Picc, Brock, Rogers, Joe, Geer, and White at or above their realistic peak while putting Gfeller 5th. His ceiling is higher than that, especially at a relatively weak/shallow weight.

It would take a miracle tournament for Oklahoma State to challenge Penn State this year. Here's hoping!

 

[lawpoke87]

Those are some very optimistic projections for the good guys. I would be surprised to see us hit triple digits. Thinking a third place finish would be our ceiling this year.

 

[OSU48]

Okiespladle, at 41 was assuming that either brock snapped out of it or gfeller dropped to 41 and Boo at 49. And to both responses yeah is optimistic but just was trying to think 'how can' rather than 'why not'.

 

[OkieSpladle]

Okiespladle, at 41 was assuming that either brock snapped out of it or gfeller dropped to 41 and Boo at 49. And to both responses yeah is optimistic but just was trying to think 'how can' rather than 'why not'.

Right, I was referencing Gfeller's ceiling at 149. Frankly, I think he'll place higher at 149 than he would dropping back to 141, just based on who is in the weight. Given the benefit of the doubt you extended to some of the other folks in the lineup, I was surprised the guy who is ranked 5th and just went toe-to-toe with #2 didn't get more love. No big deal, just interesting discussion.

 

[OSU48]

Okiespladle, I take your point. In my mind was giving him a 3 at 41. But using the other case of brock at 41 and gfeller at 49, maybe all that might happen in that projection is a 5 at 41 and a 3 at 49 and maybe approximately the same team points.

The main thing I was trying to do is create a case where the team points were the same and it was easier to do what if cases for being competitive for the championship..