The Super Bowl for these mid or low majors is in November and early December and it happens every single year.....and somehow, fans say the same ridiculous thing about "how can this happen".....we even go 4 to 5 months into March Madness and then wonder how Oral Roberts can beat Ohio State, and then act surprised.
This isn't college football where UConn beats Bama on a neutral field as a 7 or 8TD underdog....in college hoops if a team misses a bunch of 3s and your opponent hits a few, the 15 or 16 point favorite ( Maryland) is going to be in a dogfight.
College Basketball is still by far, the most poorly covered sport ever, when it comes to preseason rankings and understanding new or inexperienced talent. GW has TEN new kids on their roster, including 2 kids (Maryland and LSU) that could play at most mid level B1G/Big East/ACC or SEC schools.....Bishop from LSU was another kid, who never was going to get the amount of minutes, as Will Wade, the LSU coach, just continued to "buy out recruiting"....Bishop is a scoring threat, who probably takes a few ill-advised shots, but will get the green light all day at a GW....
These Top 150 to 250 kids that get recruited over at some of these schools like Duke, Kentucky, LSU or other places, just need a year or two to mature and get going. If they land at a place like Iona with a Rick Pitino or another mid major with a Power 5 former Head Coach that knows what he's doing, you are in for a battle.
I don't think it's surprise that these things happen, it's just that they generally happen to not-very-good teams.
Going back to the 19-20 season (skipping last season because of COVID weirdness), here's every game from a power-6 team against a sub-150 non-power-6 KenPom team that was either a loss, went to OT, or was a 1 or 2 point win:
#28 Rutgers vs. #234 Bryant (W 73-71) - Tournament team (based on Bracket Matrix)
#29 Kentucky vs. #294 Evansville (L 67-64) - Tournament team
#30 Illinois vs. #193 Nicholls (W 78-70 OT) - Tournament team
#40 Providence at #297 Long Beach State (L 66-65) - Tournament team
#40 Providence neutral vs. #170 Charleston (L 63-55) - Tournament team
#57 Notre Dame vs. #152 Toledo (W 64-62 OT)
#63 Arizona State vs. #150 Princeton (W 67-65) - Tournament team
#68 Texas vs. #276 McNeese State (W 73-71)
#69 South Carolina vs. #159 Boston University (L 78-70)
#78 UCLA vs. #263 Cal State Fullerton (L 77-74) - Tournament team
#84 North Carolina vs. #154 Wofford (L 68-64)
#89 Iowa State vs. 314 Florida A&M (L 70-68)
#97 Missouri vs. #318 Charleston Southern (L 68-60)
#103 Wake Forest vs. #299 Columbia(W 65-63)
#103 Wake Forest at #164 Charlotte (L 67-65 OT)
#111 Pittsburgh vs. #193 Nicholls (L 75-70)
#127 Washington State vs. #151 Santa Clara (L 70-62)
#127 Washington State vs. #219 Nebraska Omaha (L 82-71)
#131 Texas A&M vs. #301 Fairfield (L 67-62)
#132 Northwestern vs. #227 Merrimack (L 71-61)
#132 Northwestern vs. #186 Radford (L 67-56)
#132 Northwestern vs. #243 Hartford (L 67-66)
#153 California vs. #151 Santa Clara (L 71-52)
#162 Nebraska vs. #211 UC Riverside (L 66-47)
#162 Nebraska vs. #161 Southern Utah (L 79-78 2OT)
#162 Nebraska neutral vs. #174 George Mason (L 85-66)
#162 Nebraska vs. North Dakota (L 75-74)
So, look, it's not impossible to overcome. But top 25 teams don't play these kinds of games. And when Pikiell is going around saying it's his best team then I don't think it's unreasonable for fans to get the idea that they're fringe top-25 level. A readjustment of expectations is fair IMO.
Look at the teams it's happened to this year: Georgia Tech, Pitt, Cal, Nebraska, Arizona State... nobody thought those teams would be any good.