OT: Breeders’ Cup Thread

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

Not trying to talk down to anyone, but honestly there aren’t many people that know the Kentucky Derby is only for 3 year olds.

This coming weekend is the Breeder’s Cup, which is essentially the world championships for horses at every level…2-year-olds, 3-year-olds, older horses, fillies, turf, dirt, sprint, route, etc.

So many opportunities to make $$.

Anyways, I thought I’d start the thread, plus it will be a GREAT way to get involved before the Nebraska night game Saturday.

 

[Big bo fan]

Not trying to talk down to anyone, but honestly there aren’t many people that know the Kentucky Derby is only for 3 year olds.

This coming weekend is the Breeder’s Cup, which is essentially the world championships for horses at every level…2-year-olds, 3-year-olds, turf, dirt, sprint, route, etc.

So many opportunities to make $$.

Anyways, I thought I’d start the thread, plus it will be a GREAT way to get involved before the Nebraska night game Saturday.

My guess the majority of people that know or follow the Kentucky derby know it’s for 3year olds .

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

My guess the majority of people that know or follow the Kentucky derby know it’s for 3year olds .

Worth discussing.

What percentage of people who watch the KD know it’s only for 3-year-olds in your opinion?

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Worth discussing.

What percentage of people who watch the KD know it’s only for 3-year-olds in your opinion?

I wouldn't venture a percentage guess on just that question. Not that its not a valid question Pelini.

The bigger question is how many know the horses that make it to the Derby had to have won or stakes places in the races leading up to the Derby to get enough points to even be eligible to run. I bet a huge percentage feel its for 3 year old males only, not knowing there have been a handful of fillies who tried their luck and only Genuine Risk made it happen.

How many people know 3 year olds and older can run with Lasix but that "anti-bleeder" medication is not allowed for any Graded races and affects many horses differently. Some run just as well with or without it, some can't run a jump without it.

Only a small percentage know the Derby is 1 1/4 mile and is the longest distance, against the largest field of the most talented horses they've face, running with the largest crowd they'll ever see, carry more weight than they've ever carried and will likely not race at that distance again in their life.

Only a few realize that most, usually 75% of the horses that run the Derby never run again, or run one time and are retired. It destroys many real good 3 year olds that should have just skipped the race.

I have already downloaded the pre-entries so I have basically 6 days to look at all the races. Once Pelini posts some of his selections, I'll chime in to see if I can add anything that might help. These are tough races and usually 3-4 races have a horse that just is not gonna be beaten. But they do get beaten.

By the way, DelMar is a VERY difficult dirt surface to run on. Some horses love it and others just will not fire on that surface. If a horse is a contender and has run well at DelMar, they should be given at least a good look. By the same token, if a horse has been subpar on that surface (speed figures or Performance Figures), for me, they would be a bet-against.

I go no farther than Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey, who rode Arrogate, a generational talent that won 16-17 rces in his career and lost only 3 times, all at DelMar. Mike told my son. "Do not bet Arrogate in the Classic cause he hates this surface and he will not run well." Arrogate was beaten by 2 horses that he had destroyed in 3 other tracks around the world that year.

Horses with certain stride patterns and length seem to feel that surface is just giving way underneath them.

Anyhow, for horse players like Pelini and myself this is a great day to have the Huskers playing at night so we can equally enjoy both sports. Good luck Pelini and all others.

 

[Big bo fan]

Worth discussing.

What percentage of people who watch the KD know it’s only for 3-year-olds in your opinion?

70 percent.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

70 percent.

20 percent at best IMO.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

I wouldn't venture a percentage guess on just that question. Not that it’s not a valid question Pelini.

The bigger question is how many know the horses that make it to the Derby had to have won or stakes places in the races leading up to the Derby to get enough points to even be eligible to run. I bet a huge percentage feel its for 3 year old males only, not knowing there have been a handful of fillies who tried their luck and only Genuine Risk made it happen.

How many people know 3 year olds and older can run with Lasix but that "anti-bleeder" medication is not allowed for any Graded races and affects many horses differently. Some run just as well with or without it, some can't run a jump without it.

Only a small percentage know the Derby is 1 1/4 mile and is the longest distance, against the largest field of the most talented horses they've face, running with the largest crowd they'll ever see, carry more weight than they've ever carried and will likely not race at that distance again in their life.

Only a few realize that most, usually 75% of the horses that run the Derby never run again, or run one time and are retired. It destroys many real good 3 year olds that should have just skipped the race.

I have already downloaded the pre-entries so I have basically 6 days to look at all the races. Once Pelini posts some of his selections, I'll chime in to see if I can add anything that might help. These are tough races and usually 3-4 races have a horse that just is not gonna be beaten. But they do get beaten.

By the way, DelMar is a VERY difficult dirt surface to run on. Some horses love it and others just will not fire on that surface. If a horse is a contender and has run well at DelMar, they should be given at least a good look. By the same token, if a horse has been subpar on that surface (speed figures or Performance Figures), for me, they would be a bet-against.

I go no farther than Mike Smith, Hall of Fame jockey, who rode Arrogate, a generational talent that won 16-17 rces in his career and lost only 3 times, all at DelMar. Mike told my son. "Do not bet Arrogate in the Classic cause he hates this surface and he will not run well." Arrogate was beaten by 2 horses that he had destroyed in 3 other tracks around the world that year.

Horses with certain stride patterns and length seem to feel that surface is just giving way underneath them.

Anyhow, for horse players like Pelini and myself this is a great day to have the Huskers playing at night so we can equally enjoy both sports. Good luck Pelini and all others.

Has that dipsh!t jockey on Forever Young gotten any better?

I can’t stand watching that moron, on top of maybe the best horse in the world, pouncing up and down like some slut on xhamster.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Has that dipsh!t jockey on Forever Young gotten any better?

I can’t stand watching that moron, on top of maybe the best horse in the world, pouncing up and down like some slut on xhamster.

Remember I warned you about that clown before they even ran in the Derby?
My goodness, any top 50 rider in the US moves that horse up to world beater.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

Remember I warned you about that clown before they even ran in the Derby?
My goodness, any top 50 rider in the US moves that horse up to world beater.

You absolutely did.

 

[Capiche]

Probably the best Classic field ever. 1998 was very strong with Silver Charm, Victory Gallop, Awesome Again, Skip Away and Touch Gold.

 

[mgbreeze]

I know almost nothing about horse racing, but I worked for a gentleman whose farm bred a Breeders Cup winner. Pleasantly Perfect. Near as I can tell, horse breeding is like gambling, you win once and you're hooked forever.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

I know almost nothing about horse racing, but I worked for a gentleman whose farm bred a Breeders Cup winner. Pleasantly Perfect. Near as I can tell, horse breeding is like gambling, you win once and you're hooked forever.

Beat my favorite horse ever, Medaglia D’Oro, twice on the square.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I know almost nothing about horse racing, but I worked for a gentleman whose farm bred a Breeders Cup winner. Pleasantly Perfect. Near as I can tell, horse breeding is like gambling, you win once and you're hooked forever.

In the late 90's, Pleasantly Perfect made about $8 Million, just in winning purse money.
That's some damn good coin for almost 3 decades ago.

Breeding is not an exact science, but if you hit the lottery even one time, it can set you up for generational wealth. Take a horse like Pleasantly Perfect, especially since he's a stud and could have conceivable bred 200 or more mares a year for say 15-20 years at 50K a pop?

The BIG studs nowadays cost high 6 figures/low 7 figures just to cover a mare. That's why 95% of the really great 3 year olds get retired at 3, they can make a fortune as studs.

 

[skerbball]

Where is everyone betting/watching the races this weekend? Horsemen’s? Legacy Downs? Lots of great races and money to be made!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Beat my favorite horse ever, Medaglia D’Oro, twice on the square.

As they say, he was a hard knockin' sonofagun.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Where is everyone betting/watching the races this weekend? Horsemen’s? Legacy Downs? Lots of great races and money to be made!

I'm playing them at home on Twin Spires.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

I'm playing them at home on Twin Spires. I call it Living Room Downs.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Where is everyone betting/watching the races this weekend? Horsemen’s? Legacy Downs? Lots of great races and money to be made!

Interesting factoid. In the Juvenile Filly race, Baffert and Pletcher have the two top betting choices in that race. In past BC's, Baffert, in this type race is 2-26 and Pletcher is 0-19. Doesn't mean either one won't win, but history says no.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

In the late 90's, Pleasantly Perfect made about $8 Million, just in winning purse money.
That's some damn good coin for almost 3 decades ago.

Breeding is not an exact science, but if you hit the lottery even one time, it can set you up for generational wealth. Take a horse like Pleasantly Perfect, especially since he's a stud and could have conceivable bred 200 or more mares a year for say 15-20 years at 50K a pop?

The BIG studs nowadays cost high 6 figures/low 7 figures just to cover a mare. That's why 95% of the really great 3 year olds get retired at 3, they can make a fortune as studs.

Yeah there’s a reason they went crazy trying to keep Barbaro alive, and it sure wasn’t because of “how much they loved him.”

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Probably the best Classic field ever. 1998 was very strong with Silver Charm, Victory Gallop, Awesome Again, Skip Away and Touch Gold.

Man, that is an absolutely loaded field, however, Contrary Thinking doesn't belong and is going to be used as a Live Rabbit at 50/1. The horse has lost his last 2 races by over 100 lengths, so there is talk that this horse will not be allowed to run. For a $7 Million dollar purse a horse is supposed to have a legitimate change at winning, with this horse, no way.

Since this is the marquee matchup of the weekend, when I get the final Performance Figures I will post them to hopefully give everyone a better chance at making a decision in a very competitive race. Also, rather than my normal PF of 1, I will be a little more specific.

 

[mgbreeze]

In the late 90's, Pleasantly Perfect made about $8 Million, just in winning purse money.
That's some damn good coin for almost 3 decades ago.

Breeding is not an exact science, but if you hit the lottery even one time, it can set you up for generational wealth. Take a horse like Pleasantly Perfect, especially since he's a stud and could have conceivable bred 200 or more mares a year for say 15-20 years at 50K a pop?

The BIG studs nowadays cost high 6 figures/low 7 figures just to cover a mare. That's why 95% of the really great 3 year olds get retired at 3, they can make a fortune as studs.

He also bred a mare that was related to Pleasantly Perfect, Elusive Kate. She had a decent racing career only to die giving birth to her first foal. Horses. I visited the farm numerous times and all I can say for sure is that the guy who was in charge of the horses drank a LOT.

 

[BadgerPete]

Love me some Breeders Cup! Best day in horse racing!

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Love me some Breeders Cup! Best day in horse racing!

Yep, a handicapper can go from genius to idiot and back to genius in a span of 3 races. LOL

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

He also bred a mare that was related to Pleasantly Perfect, Elusive Kate. She had a decent racing career only to die giving birth to her first foal. Horses. I visited the farm numerous times and all I can say for sure is that the guy who was in charge of the horses drank a LOT.

If he were a former jockey that's a trait most have. All in all the horse business is very tough. It's the ole 20/80 rule.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Probably the best Classic field ever. 1998 was very strong with Silver Charm, Victory Gallop, Awesome Again, Skip Away and Touch Gold.

It's now reported, Soverignty the likely favorite spiked a temperature and is unsure if he will run.

 

[realHuskerDrew]

He also bred a mare that was related to Pleasantly Perfect, Elusive Kate. She had a decent racing career only to die giving birth to her first foal. Horses. I visited the farm numerous times and all I can say for sure is that the guy who was in charge of the horses drank a LOT.

I remember PP, great mare. My personal favorite in that era though was Silverbulletday

 

[BadgerPete]

Yep, a handicapper can go from genius to idiot and back to genius in a span of 3 races. LOL

Yes, but I go from idiot to genius to broke idiot.

 

[cubsker15]

70 percent.

Give me the under for the max

 

[cubsker15]

Yep, a handicapper can go from genius to idiot and back to genius in a span of 3 races. LOL

Describes all forms of gambling perfectly

 

[realHuskerDrew]

I love Bentornato in the sprint

edit: I like him, but I am leery of taking the chalk

 

[Capiche]

I love Bentornato in the sprint

edit: I like him, but I am leery of taking the chalk

If the payout is worth it, key him in an exacta with a few of the horses you like underneath.

 

[Capiche]

Sovereignty has been scratched. Tough racing luck. He's still horse of the year. Odds -wise a better race to bet with the favorite (whomever that is) in the 3-1, 7-2 range?

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Sovereignty has been scratched. Tough racing luck. He's still horse of the year. Odds -wise a better race to bet with the favorite (whomever that is) in the 3-1, 7-2 range?

It's unfortunate cause I love to see the top 3 year olds take on the older horses.
I was inclined to bet against Soveregnty since Mott is 4% at DelMar.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Probably the best Classic field ever. 1998 was very strong with Silver Charm, Victory Gallop, Awesome Again, Skip Away and Touch Gold.

Here are the Performance Figures for this years field, there are ONLY 2025 starts. Instead of 1.1 it will be 1.25, instead of 1.2 it will be 1.50. The lower the number, the better the performance that race.

Fierceness -3.25, -1.0, -1.0, -2.0 (left to right, from oldest to most recent start)
Baeza 6.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.75, 1.0, 0.0, -2.0
Nevada Beach 6.25, 4.0, 3.50, -1.75
Contrary Thinking 7.00, 9.00, 3.75, 32.00, 6.25
Forever Young -5.50, 1.50, 0.75
Sierra Leone 0.75, -1.25, -3.00, -1.50
Mindframe 0.75, 0.75, 0.75, XX (lost rider)
Journalism 0.50, 1.50, 1.50, 1.75, 0.50, 0.75, 0.50 ** (Note below)
Antiquarian 2.50, 0.50, -4.00, -1.00

Journalism had an injection in a joint on Oct 18 with a 14 day holding pattern which expires on Friday Oct 31, the day before he is scheduled to run.

For those wanting to play the race, I would suggest taking the time to look at the workout and race pattern. Most of these big horses run best on 28-42 days between starts. Not a 100% hard and fast rule because that would never work if a horse was trying for a Triple Crown.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

The Sprint is seriously the largest group of slow horses ever.

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

The Sprint is seriously the largest group of slow horses ever.

Then you look at Imagination, the Baffert sprinter and you say....what?
12-26-24 the horses weight was 1,081#
01-25-25 the horses weight was 1,124#
09-28-25 the horses weight was 1,016#

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

The Sprint is seriously the largest group of slow horses ever.

Okay, I'll take this one on.

I have Kopion (7/2) as the likely winner, as well as the other Mandella horse, Big City Lights (15/1) in the mix. Mullikin (15/1) is a potential bounce candidate, but at 15/1 will include in my exotic wager. Nakatomi (15/1) is a mild threat to crack the Top 5. Straight No Chaser is a mystery but if he reverts back to his best effort, he will be gone.

Bentornato has a pattern I just don't like. Last year he ran a 1, then was shelved for 10 months. Came back with another 1 when he was fresh again. It appears those big efforts take a lot out of him, otherwise, he would be on the track. DO NOT let what I say here influence your wager. I'm capable of missing a race just like everyone else. Now, this may NOT play out the way I say here, BUT, over the long haul when you have a horse that runs a big new top and gets shelved for months and months, then comes back fresh they often run well again, however, in this case, his last effort and the spacing of this race does not allow him to get freshened up. With that in mind, he will have to beat me. And sometimes, not often, they do.

Because this particular race has what I feel are multiple longshots with legitimate chances to hit the board, I'm playimg a Super 5 here which requires picking the first 5 horses in order. So in this race I will play 3w3w5w5w6 horses. Much of this has to do with the run up to the turn and horses that appear will be hung out wide and trying to run into a short 919' stretch.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

Okay, I'll take this one on.

I have Kopion (7/2) as the likely winner, as well as the other Mandella horse, Big City Lights (15/1) in the mix. Mullikin (15/1) is a potential bounce candidate, but at 15/1 will include in my exotic wager. Nakatomi (15/1) is a mild threat to crack the Top 5. Straight No Chaser is a mystery but if he reverts back to his best effort, he will be gone.

Bentornato has a pattern I just don't like. Last year he ran a 1, then was shelved for 10 months. Came back with another 1 when he was fresh again. It appears those big efforts take a lot out of him, otherwise, he would be on the track. DO NOT let what I say here influence your wager. I'm capable of missing a race just like everyone else. Now, this may NOT play out the way I say here, BUT, over the long haul when you have a horse that runs a big new top and gets shelved for months and months, then comes back fresh they often run well again, however, in this case, his last effort and the spacing of this race does not allow him to get freshened up. With that in mind, he will have to beat me. And sometimes, not often, they do.

Because this particular race has what I feel are multiple longshots with legitimate chances to hit the board, I'm playimg a Super 5 here which requires picking the first 5 horses in order. So in this race I will play 3w3w5w5w6 horses. Much of this has to do with the run up to the turn and horses that appear will be hung out wide and trying to run into a short 919' stretch.

Big City Lights is one of my keys too.

Just so many slow horses and Mandella aint entering one just to mess around.

Not a fan of Kopion shortening up out of the 1-hole, and if Bentornato wins I’ll break even at best.

 

[TheRealPeliniTheCrutch]

I actually think the F&M Turf, the Classic, and the Turf Mile are the spots to make $$.

Thoughts, 1-2-3?

 

[itseasyas1-2-3]

Big City Lights is one of my keys too.

Just so many slow horses and Mandella aint entering one just to mess around.

Not a fan of Kopion shortening up out of the 1-hole, and if Bentornato wins I’ll break even at best.

That's why I'm keying 3 in the top two spots since it could be chalk/chalk.

As always there seem to be races where there just isn't gonna be a lot of money to be won on them, so I'm looking at more on the vertical and horizontal plays.

Did you happen to notice your favorite trainer, Brad Cox (lol) only has 2 entrants the whole weekend? Looks like our other favorite hay, oats and water guy, Baffert looks to have a pretty strong hand this time, almost all are well rested.....I assume well fed also.

Another point worth noting, horses shipping from either NY or Kentucky have not had much success shipping to DelMar. Shipping east to west and from cool/cold to the warm DelMar has been a real negative.
Conversely, horses shipping from the hot weather Florida to the warm weather San Diego have done quite well. The numbers in the previous BC's support this also.

What races do you or the others like? I'm playing only 4 races on Friday and 7 races on Saturday.