One-score games

[9and4_rivals188421]

A writer on this site recently wrote "most Big Ten point spreads are typically between 3 and 7 points." Of course, a writer isn't a reporter until they check their facts. And that statement is not a fact. In 2021, 23 of 63 conference games (36.5 percent) were decided by one score, and only 20 of those (31.7 percent) featured a point spread of 3 to 7 points.

In short, expect about one-third of a team's conference games (three of nine) to be decided by one score or less.

Anyway, it's interesting to note how other teams did in one-score games, given that Nebraska's claim of "being close" is supposed to translate into a better record next year. The converse: if a team excelled in one-score games, that team is most vulnerable to a regression to the mean next year. In most cases, teams broke even or came close. There are four notable exceptions, two at the top of the list and two at the bottom.

Big Ten one-score game records, teams that played at least four of them, or almost half of the nine conference tilts:

1. Iowa 4-0
2. MSU 4-0
3. Michigan 3-1
4. Illinois 3-3
5. Minnesota 2-2
6. Penn State 1-4
7. Nebraska 0-7

Other teams that more-or-less broke even or didn't play many one-score games:

• Indiana 0-2
• Maryland 2-0
• Northwestern 0-1
• Ohio State 0-0
• Purdue 2-1
• Rutgers 1-1
• Wisconsin 1-1

The other note is that allegedly smart coaching staffs understand the value of special teams and defense, and thus play specifically to win or at least have a chance at the end to win one-score games. We virtually ignored special teams, of course.

 

[SWIowahawks_rivals44758]

A writer on this site recently wrote "most Big Ten point spreads are typically between 3 and 7 points." Of course, a writer isn't a reporter until they check their facts. And that statement is not a fact. In 2021, 23 of 63 conference games (36.5 percent) were decided by one score, and only 20 of those (31.7 percent) featured a point spread of 3 to 7 points.

In short, expect about one-third of a team's conference games (three of nine) to be decided by one score or less.

Anyway, it's interesting to note how other teams did in one-score games, given that Nebraska's claim of "being close" is supposed to translate into a better record next year. The converse: if a team excelled in one-score games, that team is most vulnerable to a regression to the mean next year. In most cases, teams broke even or came close. There are four notable exceptions, two at the top of the list and two at the bottom.

Big Ten one-score game records, teams that played at least four of them, or almost half of the nine conference tilts:

1. Iowa 4-0
2. MSU 4-0
3. Michigan 3-1
4. Illinois 3-3
5. Minnesota 2-2
6. Penn State 1-4
7. Nebraska 0-7

Other teams that more-or-less broke even or didn't play many one-score games:

• Indiana 0-2
• Maryland 2-0
• Northwestern 0-1
• Ohio State 0-0
• Purdue 2-1
• Rutgers 1-1
• Wisconsin 1-1

The other note is that allegedly smart coaching staffs understand the value of special teams and defense, and thus play specifically to win or at least have a chance at the end to win one-score games. We virtually ignored special teams, of course.

Look out for Illinois next year.

 

[9and4_rivals188421]

Look out for Illinois next year.

We have to look out for everybody.

Except Fordham. F*ck Fordham.

 

[TheWayITellEm]

3 of my Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score....and the Ohio State loss should have been by 1 score of not for the worst call I've ever seen on our last drive.

Nebraska drove the length of the field in the last 2 minutes vs Minnesota to make the final score 30-23 instead of 30-16.

 

[redwine65]

I think everyone just need to accept we are a pass happy team, with no pass happy qb and 3-9 is the result.
there's really no use whining about it, it is what it is..
seems to me there's only 3 options....
1. remain a pass happy team, with no pass happy qb. (bad)
2. remain a pass happy team, get a pass happy qb (better)
3. go back to the run, what won games for us, and stop trying to out recruit everyone else for the best pass happy players. (best)

so we now know exactly what the problem is. and beside whine about it (which I don't see as any solution at all)
what of the 3 above will be done? this is the question before us.

 

[9and4_rivals188421]

3 of my Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score....and the Ohio State loss should have been by 1 score of not for the worst call I've ever seen on our last drive.

Nebraska drove the length of the field in the last 2 minutes vs Minnesota to make the final score 30-23 instead of 30-16.

But only two losses in conference, the other one-score loss being to Bowling Green, of course. I see Minnesota as having been pretty good this year, but just not good enough to get over the hump at Kinnick Stadium. That was the game for the West, in hindsight. And the Hawkeyes won yet another one-score game despite being dominated in total yards.

 

[SkerInCo]

3 of my Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score....and the Ohio State loss should have been by 1 score of not for the worst call I've ever seen on our last drive.

Nebraska drove the length of the field in the last 2 minutes vs Minnesota to make the final score 30-23 instead of 30-16.

The final score is what it is.

 

[9and4_rivals188421]

The final score is what it is.

I know, right? And if Yant doesn't trip over his own feet, we win. That's how this works, right?

 

[73 Red I]

Huskers are college footballs version of NFL Vikings. Vikings have had 12 games this year decided by one score or less.

 

[RedMyMind]

I think everyone just need to accept we are a pass happy team, with no pass happy qb and 3-9 is the result.
there's really no use whining about it, it is what it is..
seems to me there's only 3 options....
1. remain a pass happy team, with no pass happy qb. (bad)
2. remain a pass happy team, get a pass happy qb (better)
3. go back to the run, what won games for us, and stop trying to out recruit everyone else for the best pass happy players. (best)

so we now know exactly what the problem is. and beside whine about it (which I don't see as any solution at all)
what of the 3 above will be done? this is the question before us.

Not to knock Iowa, but if we go this route, I'd rather aim higher, ala Michigan.

 

[SkerInCo]

Huskers are college footballs version of NFL Vikings. Vikings have had 12 games this year decided by one score or less.

I thought they were going to find a way to lose last night.

 

[FissionReaction]

I think everyone just need to accept we are a pass happy team, with no pass happy qb and 3-9 is the result.
there's really no use whining about it, it is what it is..
seems to me there's only 3 options....
1. remain a pass happy team, with no pass happy qb. (bad)
2. remain a pass happy team, get a pass happy qb (better)
3. go back to the run, what won games for us, and stop trying to out recruit everyone else for the best pass happy players. (best)

so we now know exactly what the problem is. and beside whine about it (which I don't see as any solution at all)
what of the 3 above will be done? this is the question before us.

Back in '03 one of the national sports writers (Mandel for SI, I think) wrote an article about Nebraska's coaching search. In the article he basically said that Nebraska would be wise to find a coach that would maintain a run-oriented offense. He said Nebraska would be making a mistake if they tried to go with a more "traditional" type of offense because we'd never be successful (at least not on a regular basis) recruiting for the type of QBs and offensive linemen that schools like USC, Texas and others also recruit for. He acknowledged that Nebraska's unique system, which could excel with using shorter, run-blocking OL and QBs who were runners #1 and passer as #2, was exactly what a school like Nebraska, with it's recruiting disadvantages, needed.

Well, nearly 20 years later and exactly ZERO championships of any kind later, he was proven to be correct. We went away from what made Nebraska successful and have since tried to be like every other school. When are we going to learn that it's not going to work? I had high hopes that Frost would bring back at least something similar to what TO used in his final few years. We saw a few glimpses of something somewhat close (at least a few options plays - all successful, I believe) in the final game this year, but with this new OC hire I think that it's all gone now.. and I don't think it's going to be good for the team.

 

[73 Red I]

I thought they were going to find a way to lose last night.

They weren't playing a desperate team like the Lions or they would have!

 

[redwine65]

Back in '03 one of the national sports writers (Mandel for SI, I think) wrote an article about Nebraska's coaching search. In the article he basically said that Nebraska would be wise to find a coach that would maintain a run-oriented offense. He said Nebraska would be making a mistake if they tried to go with a more "traditional" type of offense because we'd never be successful (at least not on a regular basis) recruiting for the type of QBs and offensive linemen that schools like USC, Texas and others also recruit for. He acknowledged that Nebraska's unique system, which could excel with using shorter, run-blocking OL and QBs who were runners #1 and passer as #2, was exactly what a school like Nebraska, with it's recruiting disadvantages, needed.

Well, nearly 20 years later and exactly ZERO championships of any kind later, he was proven to be correct. We went away from what made Nebraska successful and have since tried to be like every other school. When are we going to learn that it's not going to work? I had high hopes that Frost would bring back at least something similar to what TO used in his final few years. We saw a few glimpses of something somewhat close (at least a few options plays - all successful, I believe) in the final game this year, but with this new OC hire I think that it's all gone now.. and I don't think it's going to be good for the team.

amen!...it's could be said that george washington would run the ball, but then you would have benedict arnold's telling everyone we are gonna sign the next tom brady. this seems to be the current state of NU football, confusion.

 

[Blindcheck]

Back in '03 one of the national sports writers (Mandel for SI, I think) wrote an article about Nebraska's coaching search. In the article he basically said that Nebraska would be wise to find a coach that would maintain a run-oriented offense. He said Nebraska would be making a mistake if they tried to go with a more "traditional" type of offense because we'd never be successful (at least not on a regular basis) recruiting for the type of QBs and offensive linemen that schools like USC, Texas and others also recruit for. He acknowledged that Nebraska's unique system, which could excel with using shorter, run-blocking OL and QBs who were runners #1 and passer as #2, was exactly what a school like Nebraska, with it's recruiting disadvantages, needed.

Well, nearly 20 years later and exactly ZERO championships of any kind later, he was proven to be correct. We went away from what made Nebraska successful and have since tried to be like every other school. When are we going to learn that it's not going to work? I had high hopes that Frost would bring back at least something similar to what TO used in his final few years. We saw a few glimpses of something somewhat close (at least a few options plays - all successful, I believe) in the final game this year, but with this new OC hire I think that it's all gone now.. and I don't think it's going to be good for the team.

I've never understood why every coach since Solich has tried to re-create offenses that worked elsewhere but with greater talent, instead of embracing a running offense that is different from other blue bloods which gives nebraska a recruiting advantage because they can find the best athletes that fit its system instead of the 47th best athletes that fit everybody else's system.

 

[T...Chafes]

Wouldn't one consider a "one score game" to have a spread between -1 (or a pickem) and -7?

 

[9and4_rivals188421]

For the purposes of most discussions, betting lines aren't one-score games. A better name might be "one-possession" games, meaning anything that has a final score between one and eight points.

 

[73 Red I]

Wouldn't one consider a "one score game" to have a spread between -1 (or a pickem) and -7?

The article I read on the Vikings considered a one score game 8 ( td & 2 pt conversion) or less

 

[9and4_rivals188421]

The article I read on the Vikings considered a one score game 8 ( td & 2 pt conversion) or less

That comports with how the phrase has been interpreted in regards to Nebraska this year.

 

[timnsun]

3 of my Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score....and the Ohio State loss should have been by 1 score of not for the worst call I've ever seen on our last drive.

Nebraska drove the length of the field in the last 2 minutes vs Minnesota to make the final score 30-23 instead of 30-16.

This made me laugh… gophers would have been
1 score if not for a bad call. Inference: Let’s call it a one score loss for MN.

Gophers would have won by double digits against Nebraska if not for a score in the last two minutes. Inference: let’s call this a double digit victory for MN.

Solution: if you want to be a gopher homer, do it on your own board.

 

[Headcard]

3 of my Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score....and the Ohio State loss should have been by 1 score of not for the worst call I've ever seen on our last drive.

Nebraska drove the length of the field in the last 2 minutes vs Minnesota to make the final score 30-23 instead of 30-16.

Selective memory much. Nebraska also had a RB fall down on the 1-inch line, when they could have taken the lead in the 4th Quarter.

 

[barney44]

Huskers are college footballs version of NFL Vikings. Vikings have had 12 games this year decided by one score or less.

I thought they were going to drop one to the Steelers last night after blowing the wheels off of them in the first half. That 4th quarter was epic..

 

[TheWayITellEm]

This made me laugh… gophers would have been
1 score if not for a bad call. Inference: Let’s call it a one score loss for MN.

Gophers would have won by double digits against Nebraska if not for a score in the last two minutes. Inference: let’s call this a double digit victory for MN.

Solution: if you want to be a gopher homer, do it on your own board.

I could have simply said that 3 of the Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score. The only 2-score loss was our very first game.

 

[timnsun]

I could have simply said that 3 of the Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score. The only 2-score loss was our very first game.

Probably should have… I was at the Ohio state game and was super impressed with minnesota. They had some chances. But in spite of the horrendous no call on the clear targeting, minnesota would still have needed to score, which was not a given.

But I was also at Bowling Green and Illinois. Minnesota was absolutely a Jekyll and Hyde team.

Having Ibrahim, Autman-Bell and Morgan coming back next year bodes well for you guys.

 

[TheWayITellEm]

Probably should have… I was at the Ohio state game and was super impressed with minnesota. They had some chances. But in spite of the horrendous no call on the clear targeting, minnesota would still have needed to score, which was not a given.

But I was also at Bowling Green and Illinois. Minnesota was absolutely a Jekyll and Hyde team.

Having Ibrahim, Autman-Bell and Morgan coming back next year bodes well for you guys.

Thanks. But to be clear....I rarely whine for a targeting penalty. But the refs could have at least not compounded their error by saying it was a catch and fumble. The Ohio State sideline laughing as our receiver lay there made me angry.

 

[timnsun]

Thanks. But to be clear....I rarely whine for a targeting penalty. But the refs could have at least not compounded their error by saying it was a catch and fumble. The Ohio State sideline laughing as our receiver lay there made me angry.

If ever there was a targeting no call to complain about, that one was the one.

 

[aengel06]

3 of my Gophers' 4 losses were by 1 score....and the Ohio State loss should have been by 1 score of not for the worst call I've ever seen on our last drive.

Nebraska drove the length of the field in the last 2 minutes vs Minnesota to make the final score 30-23 instead of 30-16.

Should have never come to that. We had plenty of missed opportunities early in the game.