OSU will run the 4-3 at least 70% of the time Thursday night imo.
Playing the 3-3-5 against Tulsa would be insanity. You'd give away your size advantage as your ends played 5 technique and stood up undersized Tulsa tackles and hope the LBs hit the right gaps and can tackle. Plus, their interior lineman are all brand new. You gonna ask them to play the zero and lean strong, but still cover the backside? That's a lot to ask new guys. Meanwhile you are showing one safety lined up on center but 13 yards off the line against a QB averaging 5 yards a pass? Plus the single safety means every single snap TU is looking for man lock on the inside as a green light to go deep or bubble screen flat depending upon who Tulsa has in the game at WR. TU looks to throw deep on every play regardless of down or distance. If the man matchup is there and they don't show help, we are going heave it. And this guy thinks you'll see a base defense that never shows help and plays cover 3 soft 8 yard cushion by design? No thanks. That's setting yourself up for failure.
You might see some multiple 3 looks with 8 in the box to confuse a new QB on third and short but the stack won't happen. It won't make any sense. It gives away personnel advantages and plays into Tulsa's strengths: technique to exploit poor gap coverage.
Conversely, look at Tulsa on offense versus a three man front. TU has over sized guards and under sized tackles. You kick out your guards to defeat the OSU ends and fold your tackles inside to collide with the outside linebackers who have gap responsibility. That leaves your RB free through the line at a Mike that has to guess right on every play or it's off to the races (TU fans may remember inexplicable long runs under Graham. Those were caused by this mismatch and the sideline guessing wrong on the gap for the mike.). The wild card is your zero or one technique over the Tulsa center. A disruptive nose can cover two gaps and make up for LB mistakes or downfield blocks by pulling OL. The OSU tackles are inexperienced and under sized and there's only one in the game. I like our Rimington Award nominee in that matchup, particularly on the third or fourth first down of a drive. This blockin scheme is just one base offense example of how Tulsa would pick OSU apart in a stack. When you start thinking about Tulsa rope a doping our tackles against their ends and sending our 6-6 325 guards down hill at their linebackers, 8 to 10 yards a carry is inevitable. Don't believe me? Go back and watch the first half of the Ohio State game when they were playing 3 plus a stand up LB on the line. We moved the ball at will when they showed that alignment.
