Observations from the sidelines

[madrussian]

Well its Tourney time. Just got done watching the UVA vs UNC game last nite. Most of my tourney hopes went down the toilet after the last 48 hours.

I had posted earlier that the ACCT would provide a good measuring stick for where we are as a team. And well - the results are in - and it looks like we are the 3rd best team in the ACC.

Watching UVa play last night - well it gave me major depression. So deliberate. How they value the basketball and each possession. They make it hard to score and hard to beat them. This doesn't mean they will win the NC. No - of course. It - however reminds me of how another basketball program used to play the game. With signature defense and few turnovers.

Did the board catch UVa's stat line? Yes 4 turnovers. The entire game. I think we had 4 turnovers at the 5 minute mark.

We have a very talented team and the zone defense hides most of the poor defensive play. But up to this point we have not shown the consistent guard play needed to "go deep" in the tourney. Can we put it all together - sure. 2015 comes to mind. But - right now I am not real positive about our chances. I am feeling more and more like this team has not really come together and learned how to play together.

 

[duke0527]

Not disagreeing with you, but how did you feel after they took apart Norte dame ? Looking at lunardi’s latest projection I’d love for duke to be the 2 in the Midwest

 

[dukesince91]

I've said it many times, if Duke can keep their turnovers down to 8 or less, we will win it all.

 

[VaBlueDevil33]

Who goes to Charlotte now duke or Carolina is my question? Uva is locked there

 

[WI#1Dukie22]

I prefer to not play mich st or Kentucky before the elite 8, but I can feel it coming

 

[madrussian]

One of my prediction tools over the past several years has been to take the Duke team's road record (including neutral site games) since Jan 1 as a predictor of Tourney success. I include all road games in the ACC in years that we have started playing ACC games early.

For example 2015 National Champs 9-3 on the road. Although they lost the second round of the ACC tourney.

The 2016-17 Blue Devils were 3-6 on the road in the ACC until they reached the ACCT and reeled off 4 in a row. So they got to 7-6. But the NCAA tourney results were less than spectacular.

2010 National Champs 8-3. An impressive 7-1 on the road after Feb 1.

Now this tool does not always work as some years the opponents schedule can be very weak etc. There are exception to all of these rules.

But look at this year. I counted the BC game in there as well. So we are 6-6 on the road. The failure mode is usually consistent with close to 20 turnovers and inability to win one possession games at the end ( BC, VT, ). But we had 2 victories against ranked teams (Miami and Clemson). Since Feb 1 we are 3-4. As we have noticed. Not getting better as the year has progressed.

So in the end I see this as a "Schizo" team. They come out and play well, or they lay an egg. But the evidence shows that when we are away from Cameron we are a little pedestrian and very beatable.

 

[LouisiAaron]

One of my prediction tools over the past several years has been to take the Duke team's road record (including neutral site games) since Jan 1 as a predictor of Tourney success. I include all road games in the ACC in years that we have started playing ACC games early.

For example 2015 National Champs 9-3 on the road. Although they lost the second round of the ACC tourney.

The 2016-17 Blue Devils were 3-6 on the road in the ACC until they reached the ACCT and reeled off 4 in a row. So they got to 7-6. But the NCAA tourney results were less than spectacular.

2010 National Champs 8-3. An impressive 7-1 on the road after Feb 1.

Now this tool does not always work as some years the opponents schedule can be very weak etc. There are exception to all of these rules.

But look at this year. I counted the BC game in there as well. So we are 6-6 on the road. The failure mode is usually consistent with close to 20 turnovers and inability to win one possession games at the end ( BC, VT, ). But we had 3 victories against ranked teams (FSU, Miami, and Clemson). Since Feb 1 we are 3-4. As we have noticed. Not getting better as the year has progressed.

So in the end I see this as a "Schizo" team. They come out and play well, or they lay an egg. But the evidence shows that when we are away from Cameron we are a little pedestrian and very beatable.

This is a good informative post my G