NCAA Tourney Odds

[rtabachk]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights/bracketology

We have a 7% chance right now. Projected to go 16-15 this year. They have us needing 20 wins for a 50% chance at making it and really needing 21 wins for an 80% chance of making it.

So for a bubble, we need to go 9-5 here on out. For a near guarantee we need to go 10-4.

Here is the rest of our schedule plus 1 game in the B10 Tournament factoring into the above. It would help to take the next 4 and then find 4-5 wins in the final 9 with at least 1-2 in the B10 Tournament.

Sat, Jan 22	@ Minnesota	12:00 PM	BTN	Tickets as low as $18
Tue, Jan 25	vs Maryland	7:00 PM		Tickets as low as $9
Sat, Jan 29	@ Nebraska	6:30 PM		Tickets as low as $2
Tue, Feb 1	@ Northwestern	7:00 PM		Tickets as low as $12
Sat, Feb 5	vs 14 Michigan State	TBD		Tickets as low as $26
Wed, Feb 9	vs 19 Ohio State	7:00 PM		Tickets as low as $16
Sat, Feb 12	@ 8 Wisconsin	2:00 PM		Tickets as low as $20
Wed, Feb 16	vs 17 Illinois	7:00 PM		Tickets as low as $16
Sun, Feb 20	@ 4 Purdue	5:30 PM		Tickets as low as $128
Wed, Feb 23	@ Michigan	7:00 PM		Tickets as low as $5
Sat, Feb 26	vs 8 Wisconsin	6:00 PM		Tickets as low as $15
Wed, Mar 2	@ Indiana	7:00 PM		Tickets as low as $22
Sun, Mar 6	vs Penn State	12:00 PM		Tickets as low as $21

 

[fluoxetine]

This model looks better than Bart's to me, I might need to start using it. It has the proper spread, Bart is too confident on both sides of the bubble.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Good site - you can get an update next day after each game played,

 

[PiscatawayMike]

What a bunch of malarkey. Eight more regular season wins and we are a lock to go dancing. If we finish 19-11 overall and 13-7 in the B1G, what we do in the conference tourney won't matter.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

I don't fully buy us having only a 50% chance if we finish with 20 wins. That's 14-6 B1G, or 13-7 with one in the tournament. Let's say we win the eight "easiest" games remaining, win our first B1G tournament game, and drop the second one.

Add wins vs the next four opponents and PSU at home for five. That gets us to four B1G road wins, too. Still need three more regular season wins. The two other unranked opponents (at the moment) are at Indiana and at Michigan. So either we finish with SIX conference road wins if those are both wins, plus another home win vs a ranked team; or multiple additional wins vs teams in the top 25. Either one is STRONG.

Then the tournament: we are 13-7, that's a first round bye but maybe not top four. It was the 5th place team's record in the 2019 standings. So we play the #12 vs #13 winner and get another win, but not a great one. (Northwestern? Minnesota?) Then we advance and lose to the #4 seed, who would be a top 25 team like Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State or Purdue.

I maintain 12-8 looks bubbly at least, and 12-8 with a first round win looks like a tournament-worthy resume even with the anchors.

 

[bac2therac]

What a bunch of malarkey. Eight more regular season wins and we are lock to go dancing. If we finish 19-11 overall and 13-7 in the B1G, what we do in the conference tourney won't matter.

yes this is a mortal lock at 13-7/19-11.....I would also say that anyway to 20 is also mortal lock...such as 18-12 and win 2 games in the BE tourney.

I think 19 wins on Selection Sunday gives RU a 75% chance or better of making the tournament

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

OP - Where are you getting 9-5 getting us on the bubble via this model? I thought we have 13 regular season games to go - don’t we play 20? The only way we’d play a total of 14 more games would be if we lose in the first BIg tourney game. That would put us at 14-6 in conference for the regular season with an overall record of 19-11.

This model says that we’d only have an 11% chance of making it with 19 total wins though - that’s barely the bubble. I don’t understand how that’s possible unless they are assuming we play the Rider game. There’s almost no chance that a 12-8 team doesn’t finish in the top 8, right? That means a path to RU compiling 19 wins would have to include at least 13 wins or a 12-8 record with a win over the 1-4 placed teams in the tourney (and a trip to the BIG tourney semi-finals). How can our chances really be only 11% in those scenarios? I must be missing something. I mean Lafayette was bad but even still…

 

[PiscatawayMike]

yes this is a mortal lock at 13-7/19-11.....I would also say that anyway to 20 is also mortal lock...such as 18-12 and win 2 games in the BE tourney.

I think 19 wins on Selection Sunday gives RU a 75% chance or better of making the tournament

Hope we get to play Seton Hall again.

Funny thing is that every once in a while I catch myself typing BE instead of B1G, too.

 

[rtabachk]

I don't fully buy us having only a 50% chance if we finish with 20 wins. That's 14-6 B1G, or 13-7 with one in the tournament. Let's say we win the eight "easiest" games remaining, win our first B1G tournament game, and drop the second one.

Add wins vs the next four opponents and PSU at home for five. That gets us to four B1G road wins, too. Still need three more regular season wins. The two other unranked opponents (at the moment) are at Indiana and at Michigan. So either we finish with SIX conference road wins if those are both wins, plus another home win vs a ranked team; or multiple additional wins vs teams in the top 25. Either one is STRONG.

Then the tournament: we are 13-7, that's a first round bye but maybe not top four. It was the 5th place team's record in the 2019 standings. So we play the #12 vs #13 winner and get another win, but not a great one. (Northwestern? Minnesota?) Then we advance and lose to the #4 seed, who would be a top 25 team like Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State or Purdue.

I maintain 12-8 looks bubbly at least, and 12-8 with a first round win looks like a tournament-worthy resume even with the anchors.

I think those are the odds right now taking into account the lack of knowing how other teams around the country will do. I would say 19 wins WILL NOT get us an NCAA bid but I would think 20 will.

 

[bac2therac]

OP - Where are you getting 9-5 getting us on the bubble via this model? I thought we have 13 regular season games to go - don’t we play 20? The only way we’d play a total of 14 more games would be if we lose in the first BIg tourney game. That would put us at 14-6 in conference for the regular season with an overall record of 19-11.

This model says that we’d only have an 11% chance of making it with 19 total wins though - that’s barely the bubble. I don’t understand how that’s possible unless they are assuming we play the Rider game. There’s almost no chance that a 12-8 team doesn’t finish in the top 8, right? That means a path to RU compiling 19 wins would have to include at least 13 wins or a 12-8 record with a win over the 1-4 placed teams in the tourney (and a trip to the BIG tourney semi-finals). How can our chances really be only 11% in those scenarios? I must be missing something. I mean Lafayette was bad but even still…

19 wins is not barely the bubble...I dont know where they are getting this from

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Net provides guidance. Committee is human and makes decisions.

We are in if we keep playing none this and winning.

Me my goal isn't NCAA, it's winning the Big 10 regular season title and going from there....

 

[rtabachk]

OP - Where are you getting 9-5 getting us on the bubble via this model? I thought we have 13 regular season games to go - don’t we play 20? The only way we’d play a total of 14 more games would be if we lose in the first BIg tourney game. That would put us at 14-6 in conference for the regular season with an overall record of 19-11.

This model says that we’d only have an 11% chance of making it with 19 total wins though - that’s barely the bubble. I don’t understand how that’s possible unless they are assuming we play the Rider game. There’s almost no chance that a 12-8 team doesn’t finish in the top 8, right? That means a path to RU compiling 19 wins would have to include at least 13 wins or a 12-8 record with a win over the 1-4 placed teams in the tourney (and a trip to the BIG tourney semi-finals). How can our chances really be only 11% in those scenarios? I must be missing something. I mean Lafayette was bad but even still…

They factor in game 14 being a game in the B10 tournament.

19 bubble is because of our Quad 4 loss. We I think need 20 to feel comfortable. I would take a look at the teams that ended up in the NIT the last few years for context https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_National_Invitation_Tournament (last year not a prime example, 2020 no tournament and this is 2019)

 

[bac2therac]

to me those kind of sites are worthless, how can you predict and project chances for a bid when there is still 7 weeks of play to go with teams playing 12-14 games, all you can do is give a general area of what kind of record the team has to have which is small chance at 16-14, to still less than 50/50 at 17-13, 50/50 at 18-12 and 75% or more at 19-11

 

[rtabachk]

to me those kind of sites are worthless, how can you predict and project chances for a bid when there is still 7 weeks of play to go with teams playing 12-14 games, all you can do is give a general area of what kind of record the team has to have which is small chance at 16-14, to still less than 50/50 at 17-13, 50/50 at 18-12 and 75% or more at 19-11

Just like Vegas sets lines for games and odds for who will win the NCAA tournament before the season starts. It's all a guessing game but it's also rarely wildly off.

 

[DHajekRC84]

If we go 12 - 8 or better in this league it would be a crime not to be put in the tournament. I know we choked bad earlier but the goal should be the best 68 teams including conf. Champs.
I know metrics drive the selection but this team is playing tourney ball right now.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

They factor in game 14 being a game in the B10 tournament.

19 bubble is because of our Quad 4 loss. We I think need 20 to feel comfortable. I would take a look at the teams that ended up in the NIT the last few years for context https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_National_Invitation_Tournament (last year not a prime example, 2020 no tournament and this is 2019)

Don't pay any attention to the Q4 loss nonsense.....teams with Q4 losses, typically don't have enough Q1/Q2 wins or games to offset it.....RUs bulk of the schedule left is Q1 and Q2.....these metrics change by the minute, useless information in Mid to late January.

Once you get to early March and past the handful of smaller conference tournaments, is when you kinda know.

If fans remember last year, Oregon State and Georgetown were 8 seeds in their own conference tournaments and both stole bids from other schools who were "in".....

Stop reading nonsense or graphs or likelihood scenarios on 19 to 23 year old kids, in a covid environment and college basketball. We can't even figure out if a player on a bench of any of these teams can play consistently, or half the starters are up and down for a half or 3 to 4 games.

No one knew 3 months ago that Marylands coach would quit a handful of games into their season, Michigan would be struggling, Wisconsin would be not only ranked but in the Top 10 and Iowa would reshape their roster after losing Luka Garza and Weiskamp to the NBA, CJ Fredrick (Kentucky transfer out for the year) and would still be at the top of the scoring leaders in PPG, with their 6th man, leading the B1G in scoring per game.

And that's just how many things "preseason experts/transfer portal must know it alls" have said....multiply that by 15 other conferences and it's 6 weeks away from having a good idea.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

They factor in game 14 being a game in the B10 tournament.

19 bubble is because of our Quad 4 loss. We I think need 20 to feel comfortable. I would take a look at the teams that ended up in the NIT the last few years for context https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_National_Invitation_Tournament (last year not a prime example, 2020 no tournament and this is 2019)

Ok - but that would mean we lose our first BIG tourney game otherwise there would be a 15th game, correct?

Unless I’m missing something, the only mathematical way we can go 9-5 is to finish 14-6 and lose in the opening round of the BIG tourney. We can’t only lose 4 more conference games and not win a minimum of 3 more games against Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Indiana - the math doesn’t allow for it.

 

[rtabachk]

If we go 12 - 8 or better in this league it would be a crime not to be put in the tournament. I know we choked bad earlier but the goal should be the best 68 teams including conf. Champs.
I know metrics drive the selection but this team is playing tourney ball right now.

Except the PSU game we're 6-1 since the December break. Illinois was a demoralizing loss but Umass and Lafayette are the ghosts that are haunting us right now.

Keep in mind we will hit a stretch of playing likely 7 ranked teams in 8 games and the 8th being Michigan on the road. This assuming Indiana is ranked after this week.

We'll see if we're playing tourney ball when we go through that stretch.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Except the PSU game we're 6-1 since the December break. Illinois was a demoralizing loss but Umass and Lafayette are the ghosts that are haunting us right now.

Keep in mind we will hit a stretch of playing likely 7 ranked teams in 8 games and the 8th being Michigan on the road. This assuming Indiana is ranked after this week.

We'll see if we're playing tourney ball when we go through that stretch.

Of course. Finishing with 12 means we win 7 of the next 13 with that schedule.

 

[rtabachk]

Ok - but that would mean we lose our first BIG tourney game otherwise there would be a 15th game, correct?

Unless I’m missing something, the only mathematical way we can go 9-5 is to finish 14-6 and lose in the opening round of the BIG tourney. We can’t only lose 4 more conference games and not win a minimum of 3 more games against Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Indiana - the math doesn’t allow for it.

Based on the schedule we have 13 known and 1 unknown game. If we win the unknown then yes there's a 15th but as of now it's not a guaranteed game.

So if we go 9-4 we can lose first round (thereby 9-5), if we go 8-5 we need to win first round (gets us to 9 wins and then we can lose for a 6th loss). It's more about the amount of wins, less about the amount of losses when they factor this in to their formula as you can tell by the graph on "how many wins are needed."

 

[rtabachk]

Of course. Finishing with 12 means we win 7 of the next 13 with that schedule.

Finishing with 12 wins in league play but 18 overall would probably make the committee work for their doughnuts in deciding.

 

[scarletrat]

IMO, we need 12 B1G wins in some combination between regular season and conf tourney (11 + 1 for example). Hope we can win 3 of next 4 at least to help set up...

 

[zebnatto]

I hope we all realize how tough the path is.

 

[RRRRUUUU]

This model takes into account results in other games and projected results going forward. I would think Indiana beating Purdue last night hurt us a bit. They get the same quality win but without the bad losses.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Finishing with 12 wins in league play but 18 overall would probably make the committee work for their doughnuts in deciding.

But the tournament results would also be a factor. Who knows.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Just like Vegas sets lines for games and odds for who will win the NCAA tournament before the season starts. It's all a guessing game but it's also rarely wildly off.

I respect the concept of Vegas odds but the numbers here aren’t making sense to me. This model seems to be disregarding what would have to be involved in any path to 19 wins (assuming no Rider game is played) that doesn’t involve an auto-bid

At 10-10 you can’t get to 19 without an auto-bid. 11-9 would require a trip to the BIG finals. 12-8 the semis. Those scenerios along with 13+ conference wins all have to involve a whole bunch of signature wins. I’m just not seeing how any of these iterations are only 10% tourney worthy. Makes no sense.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Based on the schedule we have 13 known and 1 unknown game. If we win the unknown then yes there's a 15th but as of now it's not a guaranteed game.

So if we go 9-4 we can lose first round (thereby 9-5), if we go 8-5 we need to win first round (gets us to 9 wins and then we can lose for a 6th loss). It's more about the amount of wins, less about the amount of losses when they factor this in to their formula as you can tell by the graph on "how many wins are needed."

Ok but to clarify - the only way to get to 19 that involves a first round tourney exit is 9-5 which means 14-6 in regular season, right?

Similarly - the only path to 19 wins with an 11-9 regular season is 3 wins in the tourney which means losing in the BIG tourney finals.

Yes?

 

[PiscatawayMike]

Guys, don't read too much into everything. It's pretty simple...
*13-7 or better and we are in; anything we do in the B1G tourney would be gravy
*12-8 and we are squarely on the bubble; will need to win a game or perhaps two in the B1G tourney to secure a bid

Losing to Lafayette and UMass prevented us any chance of earning a bid with an 11-9 league mark.

 

[Plum Street]

yes this is a mortal lock at 13-7/19-11.....I would also say that anyway to 20 is also mortal lock...such as 18-12 and win 2 games in the BE tourney.

I think 19 wins on Selection Sunday gives RU a 75% chance or better of making the tournament

I would hope it’s 18. But you’re great at the bubble analysis.

 

[rtabachk]

Guys, don't read too much into everything. It's pretty simple...
*13-7 or better and we are in; anything we do in the B1G tourney would be gravy
*12-8 and we are squarely on the bubble; will need to win a game or perhaps two in the B1G tourney to secure a bid

Losing to Lafayette and UMass prevented us any chance of earning a bid with an 11-9 league mark.

So 13-7....means we need to go 8-5. To me personally that means we have to win our next 4 games. Last 9 include 7 ranked, Michigan in Michigan and PSU again.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Guys, don't read too much into everything. It's pretty simple...
*13-7 or better and we are in; anything we do in the B1G tourney would be gravy
*12-8 and we are squarely on the bubble; will need to win a game or perhaps two in the B1G tourney to secure a bid

Losing to Lafayette and UMass prevented us any chance of earning a bid with an 11-9 league mark.

No - the model posted by the OP isn’t saying this at all. 13-7 would only get us to 18 wins which the model is saying would leave us with no chance and only about a 10% chance even with a first round win in the tournament.

 

[rtabachk]

No - the model posted by the OP isn’t saying this at all. 13-7 would only get us to 18 wins which the model is saying would leave us with no chance and only about a 10% chance even with a first round win in the tournament.

Yes that's what the site is saying. Short of 20 wins, which would I guess mean 14-6 in the conference or 12-8 with 2 wins in the B10 tournament, our chances are under 50%. I do think you're right it doesn't sound right given the difficulty of the conference.

What if we go 11-9 in conference...end the season 17-13....win only 2 games in the tournament? I think that's probably a formula that may not get us in.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Yes that's what the site is saying. Short of 20 wins, which would I guess mean 14-6 in the conference or 12-8 with 2 wins in the B10 tournament, our chances are under 50%. I do think you're right it doesn't sound right given the difficulty of the conference.

What if we go 11-9 in conference...end the season 17-13....win only 2 games in the tournament? I think that's probably a formula that may not get us in.

Your math is off one game I think. 11-9 would put us at 16-13. We’d have to win 3 games to get to 19 in the scenario (2 likely tourney teams) - then lose in the finals.

 

[Plum Street]

Watch we have a good enough year to get the double bye and we somehow wind up on the bubble needing a win in the conference tourney to get in . The ru screw !

 

[rtabachk]

Watch we have a good enough year to get the double bye and we somehow wind up on the bubble needing a win in the conference tourney to get in . The ru screw !

Double bye costs us a game too.

 

[Plum Street]

Double bye costs us a game too.

Yep that’s where I was going

 

[rtabachk]

Your math is off one game I think. 11-9 would put us at 16-13. We’d have to win 3 games to get to 19 in the scenario (2 likely tourney teams) - then lose in the finals.

I think we're 11-6 overall and 5-2 in conference. So going 11-9 in conference adds 6 wins and 7 losses which gives us a 17-13 record.

Would be a different story if we were 14-3 right now not having lost to DePaul, Lafayette and Umass 3 games in a row by minimal points. What a slump to have.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

No - the model posted by the OP isn’t saying this at all. 13-7 would only get us to 18 wins which the model is saying would leave us with no chance and only about a 10% chance even with a first round win in the tournament.

That's why I said don't read into the OP's model, or any other model, too deep. What I wrote is the simple formula. I am 100 percent confident in what I wrote.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think we're 11-6 overall and 5-2 in conference. So going 11-9 in conference adds 6 wins and 7 losses which gives us a 17-13 record.

Would be a different story if we were 14-3 right now not having lost to DePaul, Lafayette and Umass 3 games in a row by minimal points. What a slump to have.

Oh I see. For some reason I thought we were at 10 wins not 11. That makes more sense then I guess.

At 11-9 we could end up beating 2 non-contenders in the BIG tourney. And it’s conceivably possible to collect 6 more conference wins against teams that don’t make the field for that 11 total - NW, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, PSU, Maryland. That collection of 6 wins combined with 2 more neutral wins over teams in this same group probably wouldn’t do it.

 

[knight82]

Is it too early to tell how weak or strong the bubble is going to be this year?