NCAA round-by-round probabilities
- Thread starter oceantide83
- Start date
The difference is you guys came up with a number out of thin air while that website uses statistics and logistic regression analysis to calculate the probabilities that each team will advance.
I agree. WVU has a 1 in 64 chance of winning it all. Irrefutable math.
That comes out to 1.5625% (1 divided by 64). Debate over.
If WVU beats Bucknell, then it goes to 3.125% (1divided by 32).
For the third game, it's 6.25% (1 divided by 16).
My God, let's start playing the games. I think we're all going bonkers.
That comes out to 1.5625% (1 divided by 64). Debate over.
If WVU beats Bucknell, then it goes to 3.125% (1divided by 32).
For the third game, it's 6.25% (1 divided by 16).
My God, let's start playing the games. I think we're all going bonkers.
The only way every team could have exactly the same chance of winning is if all 64 teams were exactly the same teams, coaches, and players, playing games at exactly the same locations against the exact same opponents. All the variables would have to be exactly the same.
Are any of those claiming every team has the same chance of winning willing to put their money where their mouth is? I bet you $10,000,000 that a majority of the #1 seeded teams will win in the first round. If a majority of the #16 teams win, you win. If neither group wins a majority of the games, nobody wins (which is fairly likely since, according to you guys, the chance of each of these teams winning is exactly the same). Any takers?
Are any of those claiming every team has the same chance of winning willing to put their money where their mouth is? I bet you $10,000,000 that a majority of the #1 seeded teams will win in the first round. If a majority of the #16 teams win, you win. If neither group wins a majority of the games, nobody wins (which is fairly likely since, according to you guys, the chance of each of these teams winning is exactly the same). Any takers?
It would only be a 1 in 64/68 chance if the Champion was chosen at random from the field. Probability just doesn't work that way.
If that were the case then every 16 seed team would have a 50% chance of winning their game against a 1 seed. If that is true, than it is highly likely that one of the four 16 seeds will win, so you should bet big on all of them, assuming that the payout is more than 4:1.
Each team has an equal opportunity to win, but not an equal chance.
If that were the case then every 16 seed team would have a 50% chance of winning their game against a 1 seed. If that is true, than it is highly likely that one of the four 16 seeds will win, so you should bet big on all of them, assuming that the payout is more than 4:1.
Each team has an equal opportunity to win, but not an equal chance.
Bryan Cranston just revealed his bracket on the Today Show. He has WVU playing the Tar Heels and winning the National Championship. Mark it down.