#30/NR N C STATE WOLFPACK 15 – 6 (8-2 ACC, 3rd)
NCAA NET 28 (UNC 21); Massey Rating 24 (UNC 23); RPI 19 (Nolan) (UNC 41); Torvik 20 (UNC 21)
Last season 28-7 (16-2, tie 1st); 2-1 ACCT; 2-1 NCAAT (L to LSU 73-80)
Monday evening’s game for the 17 – 5 (6 -3) and #26/23 Tar Heels is with N. C. State in Raleigh. It is the only meeting this season. In the interest of geographical accuracy, the game will be played on the Kay Yow Court, James T. Valvano Arena at William Neal Reynolds Coliseum, NCSU Campus, Raleigh NC USA, and North America on Planet Earth. Maps are available online.
The two schools have met 121 times; with State leading 65-56.
Last year, the Heels prevailed 66-65 at home. In this game Reniya Kelly had 23 points on 5 of 9 from three. The biggest factor though was most certainly the injury to Alyssa Ustby, who left the floor after just 3 minutes. Lanie Grant saw 33 minutes and contributed 9 points and 6 rebounds. NCSU put four players into double figures led by Aziaha James with 16. The two teams were destined to meet again, this time in the ACCT. State won 66-55 behind 19 points from the continually annoying James.
For this game, State is a 6-point favorite according to Massey. Nolan’s ranking favors State by 5. Torvik has State by 3.
Their non-conference record is 7-4, and the four losses included three to ranked teams. These games were 68-69 to #18 S. Cal. in the Ally Tip-off in Charlotte, 59-69 to #17 TCU in Raleigh and the third loss to a ranked team was in the ACC/SEC Challenge at #9 Oklahoma, 98-103 in OT. The fourth loss was at home to unranked Rhode Island 63-68. Rhode Island was then 6-1 in the A-10. The balance of the n/c schedule was solid; comprising the usual mid-major suspects except for a season opener against #8 Tennessee that NCSU won 80-77 and a 79-67 win over Green Bay in Cancun. Other wins came against Maine, Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss, Seton Hall and Davidson. SoS by the NCAA is 16 and by Nolan 8. For Carolina it is 73 and 70.
NCSU is 8-2 in ACC play and in third place behind 10-0 Louisville and dook. The December ACC games were against Miami down in Coral Reef (W 87-61) and at home with Georgia Tech (W 87-58). The rest of the ACC schedule: home with Stanford (W 74-46) and Cal (W 71-60); a road loss to Clemson 65-75, with SMU (W 91-54, at Wake (W 95-77), at Raleigh in tiny Reynolds against Louisville, a back-and-forth game that State lost 80-88 in overtime, then at Virginia (W 78-76 in OT). Most recently at BC, comfortably nestled in 18th place at 0-9, was defeated again 106-84.
While NCSU is a decent power defensively (7th ACC), BC is no power offensively (17th). Someone might wonder how BC could get 84 points against the Pack.
UNC is next up.
Moo U’s record may not be what Wuffie fans expected, and in fact NCSU is not ranked in either Top-25 poll although they do get five votes from the AP, good enough for 30th. Don’t be fooled by that. For the Heels no wins against State are ever easy, no matter where played or what the ranking of each team might be. It will be a rock fight.
There are three starters from last year that have gone their merry way: Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers to the W, and Madison Hayes to Italy. McDonald’s AA Zoe Brooks, a 5-10 sophomore G who was a starter last year as a rookie, is back and averages a team-leading 18.3 ppg plus leading the team in assists and steals.
From mid-season in 2025 and all but two games this year a second starter has been Tilda Trygger, a 6-6 sophomore C (12.2/8.1). She is from Sweden so assumed to be the team expert in meatball preparation; also is not afraid to shoot threes, 37.8%. Her backup continues to be Mallory Collier, a 6-3 junior C (2.1/1.1).
The transfer portal provided two other starters. They are Qadence Samuels (UConn), a 6-0 junior G (6.3/4.8) and Khamil Pierre (Vanderbilt), a 6-2 junior F (18.2/10.3). As she did for the Commodores, Pierre averages a double-double and is second (by 0.1 point) in scoring but leading in rebounding (#3 ACC). The leader in blocks, however, is Trygger.
The final starter has generally been 5-7 sophomore G Zamareya Jones (15.8/3.6). A former McD’s AA, she is the top 3-point threat both in number of attempts (120) and accuracy (.392). Her classmate Devyn Quigley, a 5-11 sophomore G (3.7/2.3) has several starts and otherwise is 6th player. For some reason I always thought she was Australian but in fact she is from New Jersey.
Maddie Cox, a 6-2 junior F (3.3 ppg) is also in the rotation. Finally, the two freshmen on the team will play, and particularly in conference games 5-10 G Destiny Lunan has been a help. Lunan (5.4 ppg) is a reliable 3-point shooter at 38.5%. For whatever reason, she likes to be called Ky’She. The other freshman is Adelaide Jernigan, a 5-11 G (2.4). In high school (Bishop McGuinness in Winston-Salem) she holds the school record for points (2,528) and three-pointers. Despite these impressive credentials that had her widely regarded as the #1 prospect in NC, Jernigan sees only 6½ minutes. Transfer portal maybe? We should be watching.
One other returnee was 6-5 sophomore C Lorena Awou, who played in 3 games and then vanished. She no longer appears on the roster and apparently is no longer active with the team. Wes Moore says “We’re just going through a time right now where she’s kind of suspended for the moment” Kind of suspended for the moment? Looks more like dismissed from the team. Why not just say that?
Experience with past games has established that stats mean very little in determining the outcome of intense rivalry games.
That said, N C State is first in the ACC in scoring (83.4) and is seventh in defense (67.9). UNC by comparison is 9th in scoring (70.4) and 4th in defense (61.6). State has three players in the top ten scoring, and Zoe Brooks is #1 in FT% at 91.5%. Not the one to foul in end game situations. Actually NCSU has an advantage in most offensive categories, having gotten a boost by scoring106 points against BC. On a percentage basis on defense, UNC is the better team against both overall FG% (.358, #1) and 3P% (.261, #2).
It might be noted that halfway through conference play Carolina has worked its way into the top half in free throws: .736 for #9. Who would have thought it?
Wes Moore, in his 13th season at NCSU, has a record there of 316-101 (153-58 ACC) and has taken State to eight NCAA tournaments with the best result being a Final Four finish in 2024. As a general rule Moore has used his bench frequently and this year has eight players averaging double figures and four starters average over 30 minutes. By comparison Carolina has 10 but none over 30.
North Carolina’s position is basically this: they sit in 7th place at 6-3. Louisville at 10-0 is three and a half games ahead and Louisville holds the tiebreaker. While still mathematically possible, catching the Cards for 1st would be seen by most experts impossible odds. UNC is also 3½ behind dook but there are 2 games remaining with them. UNC is 1½ behind NCSU but a win would award Carolina the vital tiebreaker. The teams in 5th and 6th – Virginia and Virginia Tech – UNC has yet to play. Losses in the second half of the season are never good. Those tiebreakers are killers.
Carolina has won its last four games, although if some of the fans are to be believed the last two of those wins were not impressive and should have resulted in a coaching change as the team was leaving the court. Against Syracuse, there were 20 turnovers. Against Georgia Tech, UNC was 28.8% from the floor and just 22.2% from three. Those numbers repeated against Cow College will lead to an unpleasant result – although not to a coaching change..
State, normally guard-dominated, has through the development of Trygger and the addition of Pierre become more balanced. They would very much like to make another Final Four trip in 2026 and a loss to UNC may hurt them in terms of NCAA seeding – not to mention that the Heels are their most hated opponent.
Game time is Monday 6:00 PM EST with TV by ESPN2. GoHeels On Demand will have the audio link with Matt Krause on the call.
PS: The length of this particular preview is a result, in part, of eight days between games. I will try to keep the Clemson preview to something less than War and Peace.
NCAA NET 28 (UNC 21); Massey Rating 24 (UNC 23); RPI 19 (Nolan) (UNC 41); Torvik 20 (UNC 21)
Last season 28-7 (16-2, tie 1st); 2-1 ACCT; 2-1 NCAAT (L to LSU 73-80)
Monday evening’s game for the 17 – 5 (6 -3) and #26/23 Tar Heels is with N. C. State in Raleigh. It is the only meeting this season. In the interest of geographical accuracy, the game will be played on the Kay Yow Court, James T. Valvano Arena at William Neal Reynolds Coliseum, NCSU Campus, Raleigh NC USA, and North America on Planet Earth. Maps are available online.
The two schools have met 121 times; with State leading 65-56.
Last year, the Heels prevailed 66-65 at home. In this game Reniya Kelly had 23 points on 5 of 9 from three. The biggest factor though was most certainly the injury to Alyssa Ustby, who left the floor after just 3 minutes. Lanie Grant saw 33 minutes and contributed 9 points and 6 rebounds. NCSU put four players into double figures led by Aziaha James with 16. The two teams were destined to meet again, this time in the ACCT. State won 66-55 behind 19 points from the continually annoying James.
For this game, State is a 6-point favorite according to Massey. Nolan’s ranking favors State by 5. Torvik has State by 3.
Their non-conference record is 7-4, and the four losses included three to ranked teams. These games were 68-69 to #18 S. Cal. in the Ally Tip-off in Charlotte, 59-69 to #17 TCU in Raleigh and the third loss to a ranked team was in the ACC/SEC Challenge at #9 Oklahoma, 98-103 in OT. The fourth loss was at home to unranked Rhode Island 63-68. Rhode Island was then 6-1 in the A-10. The balance of the n/c schedule was solid; comprising the usual mid-major suspects except for a season opener against #8 Tennessee that NCSU won 80-77 and a 79-67 win over Green Bay in Cancun. Other wins came against Maine, Coastal Carolina, Southern Miss, Seton Hall and Davidson. SoS by the NCAA is 16 and by Nolan 8. For Carolina it is 73 and 70.
NCSU is 8-2 in ACC play and in third place behind 10-0 Louisville and dook. The December ACC games were against Miami down in Coral Reef (W 87-61) and at home with Georgia Tech (W 87-58). The rest of the ACC schedule: home with Stanford (W 74-46) and Cal (W 71-60); a road loss to Clemson 65-75, with SMU (W 91-54, at Wake (W 95-77), at Raleigh in tiny Reynolds against Louisville, a back-and-forth game that State lost 80-88 in overtime, then at Virginia (W 78-76 in OT). Most recently at BC, comfortably nestled in 18th place at 0-9, was defeated again 106-84.
While NCSU is a decent power defensively (7th ACC), BC is no power offensively (17th). Someone might wonder how BC could get 84 points against the Pack.
UNC is next up.
Moo U’s record may not be what Wuffie fans expected, and in fact NCSU is not ranked in either Top-25 poll although they do get five votes from the AP, good enough for 30th. Don’t be fooled by that. For the Heels no wins against State are ever easy, no matter where played or what the ranking of each team might be. It will be a rock fight.
There are three starters from last year that have gone their merry way: Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers to the W, and Madison Hayes to Italy. McDonald’s AA Zoe Brooks, a 5-10 sophomore G who was a starter last year as a rookie, is back and averages a team-leading 18.3 ppg plus leading the team in assists and steals.
From mid-season in 2025 and all but two games this year a second starter has been Tilda Trygger, a 6-6 sophomore C (12.2/8.1). She is from Sweden so assumed to be the team expert in meatball preparation; also is not afraid to shoot threes, 37.8%. Her backup continues to be Mallory Collier, a 6-3 junior C (2.1/1.1).
The transfer portal provided two other starters. They are Qadence Samuels (UConn), a 6-0 junior G (6.3/4.8) and Khamil Pierre (Vanderbilt), a 6-2 junior F (18.2/10.3). As she did for the Commodores, Pierre averages a double-double and is second (by 0.1 point) in scoring but leading in rebounding (#3 ACC). The leader in blocks, however, is Trygger.
The final starter has generally been 5-7 sophomore G Zamareya Jones (15.8/3.6). A former McD’s AA, she is the top 3-point threat both in number of attempts (120) and accuracy (.392). Her classmate Devyn Quigley, a 5-11 sophomore G (3.7/2.3) has several starts and otherwise is 6th player. For some reason I always thought she was Australian but in fact she is from New Jersey.
Maddie Cox, a 6-2 junior F (3.3 ppg) is also in the rotation. Finally, the two freshmen on the team will play, and particularly in conference games 5-10 G Destiny Lunan has been a help. Lunan (5.4 ppg) is a reliable 3-point shooter at 38.5%. For whatever reason, she likes to be called Ky’She. The other freshman is Adelaide Jernigan, a 5-11 G (2.4). In high school (Bishop McGuinness in Winston-Salem) she holds the school record for points (2,528) and three-pointers. Despite these impressive credentials that had her widely regarded as the #1 prospect in NC, Jernigan sees only 6½ minutes. Transfer portal maybe? We should be watching.
One other returnee was 6-5 sophomore C Lorena Awou, who played in 3 games and then vanished. She no longer appears on the roster and apparently is no longer active with the team. Wes Moore says “We’re just going through a time right now where she’s kind of suspended for the moment” Kind of suspended for the moment? Looks more like dismissed from the team. Why not just say that?
Experience with past games has established that stats mean very little in determining the outcome of intense rivalry games.
That said, N C State is first in the ACC in scoring (83.4) and is seventh in defense (67.9). UNC by comparison is 9th in scoring (70.4) and 4th in defense (61.6). State has three players in the top ten scoring, and Zoe Brooks is #1 in FT% at 91.5%. Not the one to foul in end game situations. Actually NCSU has an advantage in most offensive categories, having gotten a boost by scoring106 points against BC. On a percentage basis on defense, UNC is the better team against both overall FG% (.358, #1) and 3P% (.261, #2).
It might be noted that halfway through conference play Carolina has worked its way into the top half in free throws: .736 for #9. Who would have thought it?
Wes Moore, in his 13th season at NCSU, has a record there of 316-101 (153-58 ACC) and has taken State to eight NCAA tournaments with the best result being a Final Four finish in 2024. As a general rule Moore has used his bench frequently and this year has eight players averaging double figures and four starters average over 30 minutes. By comparison Carolina has 10 but none over 30.
North Carolina’s position is basically this: they sit in 7th place at 6-3. Louisville at 10-0 is three and a half games ahead and Louisville holds the tiebreaker. While still mathematically possible, catching the Cards for 1st would be seen by most experts impossible odds. UNC is also 3½ behind dook but there are 2 games remaining with them. UNC is 1½ behind NCSU but a win would award Carolina the vital tiebreaker. The teams in 5th and 6th – Virginia and Virginia Tech – UNC has yet to play. Losses in the second half of the season are never good. Those tiebreakers are killers.
Carolina has won its last four games, although if some of the fans are to be believed the last two of those wins were not impressive and should have resulted in a coaching change as the team was leaving the court. Against Syracuse, there were 20 turnovers. Against Georgia Tech, UNC was 28.8% from the floor and just 22.2% from three. Those numbers repeated against Cow College will lead to an unpleasant result – although not to a coaching change..
State, normally guard-dominated, has through the development of Trygger and the addition of Pierre become more balanced. They would very much like to make another Final Four trip in 2026 and a loss to UNC may hurt them in terms of NCAA seeding – not to mention that the Heels are their most hated opponent.
Game time is Monday 6:00 PM EST with TV by ESPN2. GoHeels On Demand will have the audio link with Matt Krause on the call.
PS: The length of this particular preview is a result, in part, of eight days between games. I will try to keep the Clemson preview to something less than War and Peace.
