As of the end of games on Friday, here would be my rankings in order of likelihood:
1. Towson - This feels like the most probable. Towson won the CAA this year and surprised a lot of people doing so but fell in Semis vs Delaware. The Tigers were dismal in the previous Covid shortened season.
2. Princeton - First Princeton would have to fall in the miniature Ivy League Tourney. If this happens, the matchup might be too good to pass up. I'd put Princeton #1 if I knew they were losing this weekend. Schedule makers dream.
3. Cleveland State - Horizon champ had a good year but lost to Wright State. Not as regional as the Towson/Princeton games but a team that could fall into the 8 seed with a lot of conference tournament favorites winning their leagues so far.
4. Nicholls State - Sort of a random team here but they fell today in the Semis of the Southland. The Southland used to be a stronger league but had many teams leave, as well.
5. Norfolk State - This one would require a big upset in the MEAC final tomorrow against Coppin State. They've dominated their league but the shrunk down MEAC is one of the very weakest leagues.
6. Iona - Very intriguing matchup but Iona is likely going to get a better seed so I don't see this as a first round game. Could be a second round matchup.
7. Alcorn State - In the SWAC final. If they pull this one out they'd still have to win the final to be out of the picture.
8.. Montana State - Eeked through semis to get to conference final. If they lose there, they'll probably take on a 1 seed but not a good geographic fit.
9. Vermont - The Catamounts are a big favorite to close out the America East title. If they trip up, their computer numbers will fall but probably not enough for a first round clash.
10. Northern Iowa - As conference champ of a strong mid-major league, not likely a first round champ but Panthers did not have a great OOC performance so they may be a lower seed than expected.
11. Long Beach State - Too far away. The Big West was very balanced this year and LBSU happened to wind up on top in regular season. Would have to lose Saturday night final.
I'll continue to update as the weekend results play out in conference tournaments.
1. Towson - This feels like the most probable. Towson won the CAA this year and surprised a lot of people doing so but fell in Semis vs Delaware. The Tigers were dismal in the previous Covid shortened season.
2. Princeton - First Princeton would have to fall in the miniature Ivy League Tourney. If this happens, the matchup might be too good to pass up. I'd put Princeton #1 if I knew they were losing this weekend. Schedule makers dream.
3. Cleveland State - Horizon champ had a good year but lost to Wright State. Not as regional as the Towson/Princeton games but a team that could fall into the 8 seed with a lot of conference tournament favorites winning their leagues so far.
4. Nicholls State - Sort of a random team here but they fell today in the Semis of the Southland. The Southland used to be a stronger league but had many teams leave, as well.
5. Norfolk State - This one would require a big upset in the MEAC final tomorrow against Coppin State. They've dominated their league but the shrunk down MEAC is one of the very weakest leagues.
6. Iona - Very intriguing matchup but Iona is likely going to get a better seed so I don't see this as a first round game. Could be a second round matchup.
7. Alcorn State - In the SWAC final. If they pull this one out they'd still have to win the final to be out of the picture.
8.. Montana State - Eeked through semis to get to conference final. If they lose there, they'll probably take on a 1 seed but not a good geographic fit.
9. Vermont - The Catamounts are a big favorite to close out the America East title. If they trip up, their computer numbers will fall but probably not enough for a first round clash.
10. Northern Iowa - As conference champ of a strong mid-major league, not likely a first round champ but Panthers did not have a great OOC performance so they may be a lower seed than expected.
11. Long Beach State - Too far away. The Big West was very balanced this year and LBSU happened to wind up on top in regular season. Would have to lose Saturday night final.
I'll continue to update as the weekend results play out in conference tournaments.
