I don’t disagree with anything you said, but I’ve also never put a ton of stock into red zone efficiency because it essentially rewards teams for doing anything other than completely screwing up.
Here’s the angle I’m looking at…
Over the last three games, we have had 19 drives in which we crossed midfield.
6 have resulted in TDs
5 have resulted in FGs
1 punt
7 have been turnovers or missed FGs
Put another way, these are 19 drives that averaged 56 yards, and we ended up at our opponents 16 yard line on average. How many points did we get out of them? 3 per drive
We simply are not cashing in when we move the ball. We’re getting the equivalent of a FG after moving the ball 56 yards which is a victory for the defense. Not us