Project Tulsa to finish the rest of the year 6-5 but finish in a tie for 2nd with Wichita st and Cincy.. Hmm
KenPom projections
- Thread starter TulsaFan01
- Start date
Most of the predictions have us losing @Houston, @Wichita, with Wichita at home and SMU at home being toss ups. Even losing those four we finish 13-5. Grab a win on a neutral court in Ft Worth and we're an at large team.
If you break it down by probabilities, it's 6.3 projected wins. We're currently 1 win behind the bubble, so need >7.3 wins to get into positive territory. So the benchmark is still 14-4.
And lost to Cincinnati by 40, got dumped by Ark St @ home, lost by nearly 20 to pig, and a bad loss by about 15 to UTA (losing record). I hope we're over the hump and the guys keep dong what their doing, but it's going to be hard overcoming those WTF results.
Eh, that loss was a perfect storm of things happening. 0-17 probably won't ever happen again. The first half was really good for us, down 4 without hitting shots. Cumberland got hot, we went colder (if that's possible). Games like that happen. I'm glad Haith was able to convince them to let that half go and move on.
This team has a special mental toughness to it...something we haven't seen since maybe Manning's 2nd year here and then maybe Phillips' 2nd year coaching Self's team.
If we can pad our stats on the predicted wins (Ucan't, ECU, SMU, Tulane, UCF), take care of the toss-up away games (@UCF, @USF, and @Temple), and at least minimize the damage in the underdog games (WSU, @Houston, @ WSU)... I think we are on the bubble at 22-9, with a NET/RPI hopefully north of 50 (guessing, of course) and the added advantage of being on a hot streak. A conference tournament win could push us to a yes. I think the AAC has a 3 bid reputation, WSU and Houston are looking good, spot #3 is up for grabs.
Lest someone think I'm all rainbows, I also think choking at home against ECU, USF, Tulane or even UCF/U'Cant or a road loss to USF probably has to be offset by an upset of WSU or Houston just to stay on the bubble, and might give the committee an excuse to put in a 17th ACC team instead of a 3rd AAC team.
Here's the bigger problem - I've starting sipping the sugar beverage again. I think we can do it. I'm not sure we will, but I have this strange hopeful feeling concerning a TU revenue sport. If we end up in the bubble discussion, end up in the NIT and win a game, I'm marking the season down as a huge step forward because the pieces are there to give me hope for next season. Dangerously high hopes.
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Tulsa&year=2020
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_424_Men.html
Lest someone think I'm all rainbows, I also think choking at home against ECU, USF, Tulane or even UCF/U'Cant or a road loss to USF probably has to be offset by an upset of WSU or Houston just to stay on the bubble, and might give the committee an excuse to put in a 17th ACC team instead of a 3rd AAC team.
Here's the bigger problem - I've starting sipping the sugar beverage again. I think we can do it. I'm not sure we will, but I have this strange hopeful feeling concerning a TU revenue sport. If we end up in the bubble discussion, end up in the NIT and win a game, I'm marking the season down as a huge step forward because the pieces are there to give me hope for next season. Dangerously high hopes.
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Tulsa&year=2020
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_424_Men.html
To get us north of 50 we might have to win out. That is highly unlikely with road games at WSU and Houston. The rest of the games road and away I believe we can win those games. With our bad losses and them continuing to lose games is going to affect our ranking. If we can win out with only two more losses to @ Houston and @ WSU, then that will put us at 23-8 with a first round bye. If we win at least 1-2 games in the conference tournament even if we don’t win the tournament I think we are in.
I say this but we need Memphis, WSU and Houston to win as many as they can. Hopefully Memphis can build their record and their ranking back up and that might push us over
The team certainly has gotten past those WTF games. The fine folks that rank and rate are another story altogether, and how I hoped my most would be received.
Actually our efficiency improving will up our rankings, so keeping those losses close and blowing out our home "wins" could get us inside the 50 line.
The NET showed some of these tendencies last year and seems to be acting similarly this year. It's still a long climb. Team needs to stay focused and take care of what they can control.
I am thinking the same as many on here, but let's hope the players are focused on the next game up. I'd hate to see them look ahead to the games at Houston or at WSU and drop a stupid game.