Tulsa picked to finish 14-16 overall and 9th place in the AAC.
KenPom projections are out
- Thread starter ctt8410
- Start date
Interesting. Lots of really close games. 14-16 will definitely (should) get us a new coach.
I think the over under on keeping haith is 18 wins.
I think the over under on keeping haith is 18 wins.
.500 is about right.
Where's the talent? Been saying that for years... Haith cannot recruit and retain.
Where's the talent? Been saying that for years... Haith cannot recruit and retain.
Think of it probabilistically. If a team has a 2-game schedule and they are 51% favorites in each game individually, what is the most likely outcome?
2015
KenPom: 22-7 Actual: 23-11
2016
KenPom: 21-7 Actual: 20-12
2017
KenPom: 14-14 Actual: 15-17
2018
KenPom: 16-12 Actual: 19-12
2019
KenPom: 18-12 Actual: 18-14
2020
KenPom: 19-12 Actual: 21-10
2021
KenPom: 12-9 Actual: 11-12
Does KenPom so O/U projections on how many different lineup combinations Haith uses in the first 5 games? I'm setting it at 26 (which may be our avg points per half too in those games.
I want to know the over/under on how many times per game we, as a group, mention left the corner 3 open or as I’m now calling it LCO/gm
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Shoot, TU bats 1.000 in that statistic. The defensive philosophy hasn't changed at all and we play to deny inside touches and purposefully leave the 3 open. Even in Wainwright's one year on staff, that shot was left open BUT TU did some weird things in it's rotations so it was difficult for the guards to figure out where the pass should go or we made it impossible for the opponent to skip the pass to the opposite wing because of the clogged middle. We will see the same this year. As much as they tried to play that same Wainwright blob zone last year, I don't think any of our coaches last year understood the principles well enough to teach it or make adjustments and we just had some players who don't work as hard on the defensive end to make it work.
Right as rain!
It's hard to "retain" when you haven't "attained" or "obtained" yet!!
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They're probably trying to hire a grad student in statistics who has never seen the inside of a basketball gym
Do we still teach statistics? That seems like one of those things that would get outsourced to TCC?
TU still has a business school and an engineering school. I’m sure statistics must still be taught.
I don't know. I had to take Stat as a biology major at TU. I guess it was a trade off for not having to take a language as a Bach. Science degree track
I'm kidding (mostly). But back to the point, do we have anyone doing sports analytics? Seems like that would put a quick end to the "leave the corner open" strategy.
TU_BLA makes good points....Also of course, the so-called 'match up' zone is hard to teach in a one off
season-pre season time frame to a player new to the system....Again this season, we will have a five
man recruiting class plus the three portal additions....We might subtract Horne, as he was here for the
'19-'20 season, but that still leaves 7 new ones, and most all of them are expected to be within the
playing rotation.....
Last season, without Wainwright to teach the little extra nuances that made this defense so baffling
to opposing offenses, the match-up was far less effective, and if it baffled anyone, it was our first year players....
High attrition and large recruiting classes have been a Haith trademark, and are probably the biggest
reasons that his teams get off to such uncertain starts.....We start most seasons with an experience
level that would equate more closely with Jr. College teams than D-1 level schools.....Let's hope this
is the season that we see the start of this damaging trend being reversed.....
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Someone on this board did some analysis...maybe ctt...that the corner 3 was the most rewarding shot in college basketball. It's sort of like the football coach at Pulaski Academy in Arkansas never punting, always onside kicking, etc. because the analytics said that was going to result in more points for your team and fewer possessions/chances for points for the other team.
The corner 3 had higher potential value at 35% made than a layup made 75% of the time...something weird like that. I think Aston has railed on this as well.
I guess I wouldn't be shocked if you told me Frank was an "I believe in my gut and experience and don't believe all those fancy, made up stats" kind of guy.
I think he totally buys into the 3 pt shot is the way to go...look at how few post players he recruits vs the 6"4"-6'5" wings he says are "great shooters".
BTW, the worst shot in basketball is the pump faked 3 for the player to take one step inside the 3 pt arc and shoot an 18 foot 2 pt shot.