Keeping an eye on the tropics

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

The NHC has given a wave in the open Atlantic a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 3-5 days. There are some variations in the models on the track. Some are bringing it into the Gulf and some are recurving it out to sea. Most models are keeping it a tropical storm / minimal hurricane, but at least one ramps it up to a category 3. Still just too early to tell.

 

[SirBarksalot]

The model taking it to cat3 seems to be a big outlier. Thankfully

 

[dawgstudent]

Has this been the quietest tropical season in 30 years?

 

[aTotal360]

First Biscardi, now this?

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Has this been the quietest tropical season in 30 years?

August not having any named storms was the first time that has happened in the last 25 years and only the second time in the modern satellite era (1967 - present). This is definitely looking to be a very quiet season. 2020 and 2021, though, were very active years...2020 especially with a record 30 named storms.

If anybody on this board happens to be one of our Patreon supporters, I am putting the finishing touches on an article looking hurricanes from the past to the present and breaking trends down. It should be released this week and next week I have one coming out discussing our fall severe weather season.

 

[The Peeper]

Predicting hurricanes in advance of the season is like preseason bowl predictions.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

This is now officially a tropical depression.

 

[dawgstudent]

Sounds like the last 20 years of Miami football.

This is now officially a tropical depression.

 

[HailStout]

View attachment 25263

Sounds like the last 20 years of Miami football.

 

[PK Dawg]

Awe hell

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Official forecast track from the NHC. Several of the models are wanting to turn this out to sea before it impacts the mainland US, but this far out it's impossible to know for sure. A stronger system will be more likely to get picked up and turned north. If it manages to stay relatively weak then there's more of a chance of it meandering its into the Gulf.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Latest forecast track is now picking up on the recurve back out to sea.

 

[Dawgbite]

I'm leaving tomorrow to eat and drink my way across the Alabama gulf and the Florida panhandle for the next two weeks. I'll keep you posted of my up to date location so that you can accurately predict landfall. If anyone can attract that 17er, it's me.

 

[Trojanbulldog19]

Shhhhh

 

[KeyserSoze1999]

View attachment 25266

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

We now officially have tropical storm Fiona.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

So can we now say global warming/climate change is a bunch of hoowey? Every time a natural disaster happens the media and leftists claims that proves it. So this should prove the opposite.