https://www.technologyreview.com/20...ow-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
**This study is in German, so I only read the summary. It's also not likely to have been peer reviewed yet, so grains of salt with everything below.
Gangelt, a small town in Germany was hit hard with the virus after a Feb carnival celebration. The population is small, under 12K people, but they did an antibody test and found that 14% of the population currently either actively had the virus (>2%) or currently had antibodies. They also determined the estimated death rate to be .37%.
Now, what are some of the inferences from this?
The scary part about this virus isn't how deadly it is, but how quickly and easily it spreads. I'm worried about my 92 y/o grandfather. The flu would probably kill him, but he can take a vaccine and the transmissibility of the flu because many people have taken a vaccine and the shorter duration of contagiousness make it much less concerning.
The US should be doing much more of this testing. I've been hesitant about the implications of this data, but without studies like this you can't measure what's really going on in the world, and more importantly you can't inform models that give us a true picture of what's going on.
Unfortunately immunity is the only way out of this. That's either herd immunity or vaccine. A vaccine is 8+ months away, IF the current prospects work. If not, it could be longer. That means we're going to have to open up less dense areas of the country with restrictions in place. We've been able to avoid NYC scenarios in most of the country, though we still have a few more weeks until peak.
What does open up look like? It's hard to say. Vulnerable people clearly don't need to be going to restaurants. Grandma has no business going to church for a while, even if the doors are open, but areas with low transmission rates either by density or by herd immunity (requires testing!) should be able to open offices and some other less essential businesses.
I think we're a ways off from being able to make intelligent decisions, but collecting data like this helps the smart guys get there.
**This study is in German, so I only read the summary. It's also not likely to have been peer reviewed yet, so grains of salt with everything below.
Gangelt, a small town in Germany was hit hard with the virus after a Feb carnival celebration. The population is small, under 12K people, but they did an antibody test and found that 14% of the population currently either actively had the virus (>2%) or currently had antibodies. They also determined the estimated death rate to be .37%.
Now, what are some of the inferences from this?
- A 14% infection rate after a widespread breakout is not encouraging if you are waiting for a 40-60% herd immunity rate to open things back up. That rate still means a full flare up would still be possible, though some the most vulnerable (pre-existing conditions) and susceptible (first responders and public workers) have already contracted it. Any tick up in immunity as a population will slow the rate at which it can spread. We just don't have data on how this works yet.
- The estimated death rate can't be directly compared to the death rate for flu because it includes non-symptomatic people. That same rate for flu is estimated somewhere between .3-6%, but there haven't been any real studies on that and this is only one sample from one location. Still, it's encouraging.
The scary part about this virus isn't how deadly it is, but how quickly and easily it spreads. I'm worried about my 92 y/o grandfather. The flu would probably kill him, but he can take a vaccine and the transmissibility of the flu because many people have taken a vaccine and the shorter duration of contagiousness make it much less concerning.
The US should be doing much more of this testing. I've been hesitant about the implications of this data, but without studies like this you can't measure what's really going on in the world, and more importantly you can't inform models that give us a true picture of what's going on.
Unfortunately immunity is the only way out of this. That's either herd immunity or vaccine. A vaccine is 8+ months away, IF the current prospects work. If not, it could be longer. That means we're going to have to open up less dense areas of the country with restrictions in place. We've been able to avoid NYC scenarios in most of the country, though we still have a few more weeks until peak.
What does open up look like? It's hard to say. Vulnerable people clearly don't need to be going to restaurants. Grandma has no business going to church for a while, even if the doors are open, but areas with low transmission rates either by density or by herd immunity (requires testing!) should be able to open offices and some other less essential businesses.
I think we're a ways off from being able to make intelligent decisions, but collecting data like this helps the smart guys get there.
