In 3 years

[RU72]

I am off on a speaking tour in September to universities and prep schools on what will the college landscape look like in say 3 years. Will drop a couple of thoughts here:

Revenue sharing at Power 6 level with student-athletes getting 12-18% of the TV money.

Student-athletes will be deemed employees of the university with the rights to collectively bargain and attendant worker's compensation rights. That lawsuit is pending now in the 3rd Circuit in Philly.

The evisceration of the ACC as we know it.

 

[FinalFourOrBust_rivals142702]

The boomers will not be happy

 

[MiloTalon13]

How does revenue sharing work with Title IX and sports other than basketball and football?

Does P6 splinter off from NCAA?

 

[ScarletKid2008]

What are the chances that by year 5 the whole conference model individually acquiring Tv rights gets blown up?

Instead the ncaa or some entity owns the rights for all programs in a new “super” league of some sort and puts an end to conference reshuffling and puts everyone back into logical regional groupings ?? (Also would be scary for the RUs, BCs, Wakes, Vanderbilts of the world if that were to happen and a selection of some sort occurs)

 

[e5fdny]

What are the chances that by year 5 the whole conference model individually acquiring Tv rights gets blown up?

Instead the ncaa or some entity owns the rights for all programs in a new “super” league of some sort and puts an end to conference reshuffling and puts everyone back into logical regional groupings ?? (Also would be scary for the RUs, BCs, Wakes, Vanderbilts of the world if that were to happen and a selection of some sort occurs)

Relegation is already happening.

It’s just not called that.

 

[jordkap]

Relegation is already happening.

It’s just not called that.

Washington State and Oregon State have already been relegated

 

[Briccnerff]

I am off on a speaking tour in September to universities and prep schools on what will the college landscape look like in say 3 years. Will drop a couple of thoughts here:

Revenue sharing at Power 6 level with student-athletes getting 12-18% of the TV money.

Student-athletes will be deemed employees of the university with the rights to collectively bargain and attendant worker's compensation rights. That lawsuit is pending now in the 3rd Circuit in Philly.

The evisceration of the ACC as we know it.

When this happens, I’ve been laughed at for stating this same thing, we can compete with everyone, in every sport, every year. No more Bama, Clemson, Ga, OSU, Umich, Texas. It’ll be up to best recruiters, best general managers and best coaches. LFG!!!

 

[NightKnight]

Is your focus on sports, because I think the extinction of the small private college is one of the most significant events on the horizon. CNBC on colleges closings . I'm very concerned about many HBCUs and religious colleges not making to the next decade.

On the sports side, ticket sales and vieweship will decline. Less money is not a concept many big time programs can get their heads around.

 

[RUHouston]

What are the chances that by year 5 the whole conference model individually acquiring Tv rights gets blown up?

Instead the ncaa or some entity owns the rights for all programs in a new “super” league of some sort and puts an end to conference reshuffling and puts everyone back into logical regional groupings ?? (Also would be scary for the RUs, BCs, Wakes, Vanderbilts of the world if that were to happen and a selection of some sort occurs)

Assumes RU never gets better in Football. We will know in the next two to three years. We start winning 7-8 games per year with an occasional 9-10 then we won’t need to worry.

 

[RUChoppin]

How does revenue sharing work with Title IX and sports other than basketball and football?

Does P6 splinter off from NCAA?

Just speculating....

If they are considered employees of the university rather than scholarship athletes, that might sidestep Title IX entirely. If I hired you to play football on a one year renewable contract, with a condition of employment being that you remain a student in good standing, I can pay you a dollar amount greater than your scholarship without it counting as a scholarship... you'd just take the salary you're getting from the university and pay for your education like a non-scholarship student.

That would erase all the football and basketball scholarships from the board, and suddenly there would be far more women's sports scholarships than men's sports scholarships, which could easily lead to a reduction in women's sports offerings.

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

What are the chances that by year 5 the whole conference model individually acquiring Tv rights gets blown up?

Instead the ncaa or some entity owns the rights for all programs in a new “super” league of some sort and puts an end to conference reshuffling and puts everyone back into logical regional groupings ?? (Also would be scary for the RUs, BCs, Wakes, Vanderbilts of the world if that were to happen and a selection of some sort occurs)

Been saying this for years. We’re fine right now but at some point the football team will have to win to remain semi-relevant. We’ve had 10 years in the B1G so far with no progress.

 

[RUsundevil]

Don't forget athletic programs losing the tax free status. That would fundamentally change NCAA more than conference shuffling.

 

[SirScarlet]

I am off on a speaking tour in September to universities and prep schools on what will the college landscape look like in say 3 years. Will drop a couple of thoughts here:

Revenue sharing at Power 6 level with student-athletes getting 12-18% of the TV money.

Student-athletes will be deemed employees of the university with the rights to collectively bargain and attendant worker's compensation rights. That lawsuit is pending now in the 3rd Circuit in Philly.

The evisceration of the ACC as we know it.

The evisceration of the ACC!!

 

[pmvon]

I am off on a speaking tour in September to universities and prep schools on what will the college landscape look like in say 3 years. Will drop a couple of thoughts here:

Revenue sharing at Power 6 level with student-athletes getting 12-18% of the TV money.

Student-athletes will be deemed employees of the university with the rights to collectively bargain and attendant worker's compensation rights. That lawsuit is pending now in the 3rd Circuit in Philly.

The evisceration of the ACC as we know it.

Do you think sports is dropped by everyone outside of D1? Do you think Olympic sports are dead outside of P3?

 

[e5fdny]

Do you think sports is dropped by everyone outside of D1? Do you think Olympic sports are dead outside of P3?

Why?

They do it now with nothing in DIII. What will change?

 

[SteveVA2]

Just speculating....

If they are considered employees of the university rather than scholarship athletes, that might sidestep Title IX entirely. If I hired you to play football on a one year renewable contract, with a condition of employment being that you remain a student in good standing, I can pay you a dollar amount greater than your scholarship without it counting as a scholarship... you'd just take the salary you're getting from the university and pay for your education like a non-scholarship student.

That would erase all the football and basketball scholarships from the board, and suddenly there would be far more women's sports scholarships than men's sports scholarships, which could easily lead to a reduction in women's sports offerings.

It depends on whether athletics will be considered an educational program or activity of the university. Generally, Title IX has not been a very effective tool for dealing with employment discrimination particularly compared to Title VII. But who knows what will happen. A lot depends on how the administration in power wants to interpret the law.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

When this happens, I’ve been laughed at for stating this same thing, we can compete with everyone, in every sport, every year. No more Bama, Clemson, Ga, OSU, Umich, Texas. It’ll be up to best recruiters, best general managers and best coaches. LFG!!!

Only if we're actually in SuperConferenceUSA. I think we will be (and I agree, everyone in that conference will be on an even footing because of revenue sharing and salary caps), but it isn't a given. And if we're not invited to SuperConferenceUSA, we might as well play intramurals.

 

[TDIrish27]

Been saying this for years. We’re fine right now but at some point the football team will have to win to remain semi-relevant. We’ve had 10 years in the B1G so far with no progress.

Agreed

I believe Rutgers is fine.

But I do believe within 5 years they'll be an outcry by the big guys in these Power Conferences for Revenue dictated by Performance. The Bama's , Ohio St's and Georgia's of the world will get tired of equal shares with conference members that aren't pulling their weight.

 

[fatsam98]

Agreed

I believe Rutgers is fine.

But I do believe within 5 years they'll be an outcry by the big guys in these Power Conferences for Revenue dictated by Performance. The Bama's , Ohio St's and Georgia's of the world will get tired of equal shares with conference members that aren't pulling their weight.

They're more than welcome to go start their own super conference and see how that works out for them imo

 

[e5fdny]

They're more than welcome to go start their own super conference and see how that works out for them imo

That’s where the match up vs geography/tradition comes into play.

TV ($$$$) wants the match up. The higher up the food chain will get those and the further you go the less available (for free or viewing audience) they become.

 

[Joey Bacala]

Is your focus on sports, because I think the extinction of the small private college is one of the most significant events on the horizon. CNBC on colleges closings . I'm very concerned about many HBCUs and religious colleges not making to the next decade.

On the sports side, ticket sales and vieweship will decline. Less money is not a concept many big time programs can get their heads around.

This is another pressing college landscape topic that is going to play out in the next 5 yrs. Some of the smaller private colleges without a significant academic draw/specialty will be gone in 5 years. A number of factors at work here. I think the country has come to grips with an old fallacy that a college degree- in fact ANY college degree - is the only way to lift yourself to a more comfortable lifestyle. That's played out over the past 20-30 yrs where we have lots of people with huge amounts of college loans with no discernable profession that they can hang their hat on. I am an advocate of lifetime learning, and post-high school education is necessary but it doesn't have to be college. Professional trade schools, apprenticeships, etc are all great entry points into careers.

I'll give a NJ example - Rider I believe is not long for this world. Total cost to attend near $60K. Kind of a small, non-descript campus. Tough sell. I know kids get some aid, scholarship, etc. but still.....

 

[bigmatt718]

This is another pressing college landscape topic that is going to play out in the next 5 yrs. Some of the smaller private colleges without a significant academic draw/specialty will be gone in 5 years. A number of factors at work here. I think the country has come to grips with an old fallacy that a college degree- in fact ANY college degree - is the only way to lift yourself to a more comfortable lifestyle. That's played out over the past 20-30 yrs where we have lots of people with huge amounts of college loans with no discernable profession that they can hang their hat on. I am an advocate of lifetime learning, and post-high school education is necessary but it doesn't have to be college. Professional trade schools, apprenticeships, etc are all great entry points into careers.

I'll give a NJ example - Rider I believe is not long for this world. Total cost to attend near $60K. Kind of a small, non-descript campus. Tough sell. I know kids get some aid, scholarship, etc. but still.....

Rider is in deep doo doo, IMO. I can see them being bought out by TCNJ by 2030 as their price tag is stupid for a school that excels in next to nothing academically.

 

[ru66]

Someone's paying to speak about " predictions". Like the Ncaa's lock, we'll never play Princeton again and others that were worthless ?? Who are these institutions??

 

[satnom]

Agreed

I believe Rutgers is fine.

But I do believe within 5 years they'll be an outcry by the big guys in these Power Conferences for Revenue dictated by Performance. The Bama's , Ohio St's and Georgia's of the world will get tired of equal shares with conference members that aren't pulling their weight.

That will be a small league. Any league that offers more of the pie to a subset of schools outside of the revenue for reaching playoffs or winning it all is doomed to fail.

That’s why there’s no exit fee that I know of to leave the BIG or SEC.

GO RU

 

[koleszar]

I am off on a speaking tour in September to universities and prep schools on what will the college landscape look like in say 3 years. Will drop a couple of thoughts here:

Revenue sharing at Power 6 level with student-athletes getting 12-18% of the TV money.

Student-athletes will be deemed employees of the university with the rights to collectively bargain and attendant worker's compensation rights. That lawsuit is pending now in the 3rd Circuit in Philly.

The evisceration of the ACC as we know it.

So Pro football with just younger players. Got it.

 

[Briccnerff]

Is your focus on sports, because I think the extinction of the small

Only if we're actually in SuperConferenceUSA. I think we will be (and I agree, everyone in that conference will be on an even footing because of revenue sharing and salary caps), but it isn't a given. And if we're not invited to SuperConferenceUSA, we might as well play intramurals.

The only way we’re not in super conference is if the B1G falls apart. Not likely.

 

[Scangg]

This is another pressing college landscape topic that is going to play out in the next 5 yrs. Some of the smaller private colleges without a significant academic draw/specialty will be gone in 5 years. A number of factors at work here. I think the country has come to grips with an old fallacy that a college degree- in fact ANY college degree - is the only way to lift yourself to a more comfortable lifestyle. That's played out over the past 20-30 yrs where we have lots of people with huge amounts of college loans with no discernable profession that they can hang their hat on. I am an advocate of lifetime learning, and post-high school education is necessary but it doesn't have to be college. Professional trade schools, apprenticeships, etc are all great entry points into careers.

I'll give a NJ example - Rider I believe is not long for this world. Total cost to attend near $60K. Kind of a small, non-descript campus. Tough sell. I know kids get some aid, scholarship, etc. but still.....

60k to go to Rider!?!? That's insanity

 

[Scarlet83]

Rider is in deep doo doo, IMO. I can see them being bought out by TCNJ by 2030 as their price tag is stupid for a school that excels in next to nothing academically.

I agree Rider is in trouble. But why do you think TCNJ would benefit by buying Rider? Unless TCNJ can get Rider for a humongous discount.

 

[e5fdny]

I agree Rider is in trouble. But why do you think TCNJ would benefit by buying Rider? Unless TCNJ can get Rider for a humongous discount.

Agree.

Not a lotta there there IMO.

 

[RU84]

Wonder how the ACC teams get out of their contract.

 

[RUBigFrank]

What happens to SEC scheduling of 8 conference games and two cupcakes? Don't see that changing as it always has been an easy ramp to the playoffs.

 

[cRURah]

For the major sports, let’s just call them the college professional leagues. Similar to MBA and NFL, except that the colleges are the base for the team brands instead of cities. It ridiculous to make these new pro athletes enroll in classes and get an education. The colleges could then sell the franchise to private ownership or alternatively outsource the general management. Players could even be traded. Eligibility would continue to be limited to 4 years playing time to maintain freshness of each team.

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

I am off on a speaking tour in September to universities and prep schools on what will the college landscape look like in say 3 years. Will drop a couple of thoughts here:

Revenue sharing at Power 6 level with student-athletes getting 12-18% of the TV money.

Student-athletes will be deemed employees of the university with the rights to collectively bargain and attendant worker's compensation rights. That lawsuit is pending now in the 3rd Circuit in Philly.

The evisceration of the ACC as we know it.

Will never happen. Take 12-18% of TV from the schools and they start losing big (Bigger) money. Then you want the schools to pay for workers comp insurance. The numbers just don't add up. Using to B1G: $55 million per school, 18% is $10 million. If you want to divide that up by 100 football and basketball players that's $100,000. Equal split for players or do starters and stars get more? Does an agent negotiate ? Who pays for the education ? Room and Board?

This is not like the NFL or NBA where the value of ownership lies in the increasing value of the franchise itself. Schools can't sell their programs.

 

[Westcoast]

Only if we're actually in SuperConferenceUSA. I think we will be (and I agree, everyone in that conference will be on an even footing because of revenue sharing and salary caps), but it isn't a given. And if we're not invited to SuperConferenceUSA, we might as well play intramurals.

It seems the same thing that got us into Big10 would get us into future conferences. We are still the only D1 team in the NYC area and aside Temple, the only one in the Philadelphia area as well.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This would be the death of non revenue sports.

 

[rubaseball78_rivals]

It seems the same thing that got us into Big10 would get us into future conferences. We are still the only D1 team in the NYC area and aside Temple, the only one in the Philadelphia area as well.

Saw an article recently that showed 20% of the Big 10 area population is around Rutgers. No conference is going to pass that up.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This would be the death of non revenue sports.

Unless the revenue sports end up subsidizing the non revenue as part of the package. It’s sort of important that the players on the teams remain enrolled in the schools as students because otherwise - what’s the connection to the school? That requirement creates some leverage for bundling.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Revenue sports are the reason many non revenue sports have been cut. Title IX hasn't helped either.

 

[dconifer0]

The boomers will not be happy

I don't understand this comment. I know it's fun to do the generation vs. generation thing, but aren't people of all ages interested/concerned about the future of NCAA sports, or even the college landscape in general?

 

[TDIrish27]

That will be a small league. Any league that offers more of the pie to a subset of schools outside of the revenue for reaching playoffs or winning it all is doomed to fail.

That’s why there’s no exit fee that I know of to leave the BIG or SEC.

GO RU

It could be 60 teams nationally----that's plenty.