Here's how football could work

[TheStateUofMS]

First of all everything has to be done regionally. That means out of conference games are played vs instate schools or neighboring states's schools. You may even have to play teams in your conference twice. Example: South Carolina could skip playing A&M and play Tennessee or Kentucky twice if they had to. Keep the teams as isolated as possible from the regular students during the season. All teams tested the following Monday after games. I think teams can still fly since they charter jets and they can clean them.

If you look at the English Premier League, they are testing around 2,500 players, staff and other personnel every week and they are having hardly any positives. They've had as low as 0 or 1 test positive and as many as 6 one week if I'm remembering correctly. I heard an English Chap say recently the EPL can do this because the furthest match a team has to travel is about 6 hours by bus, so this prevents the spread. I know some schools it would be hard to do this out west, but I think it can be done.


Oh yea....no fans.


What do you think?

 

[TNT.sixpack]

First of all everything has to be done regionally. That means out of conference games are played vs instate schools or neighboring states's schools. You may even have to play teams in your conference twice. Example: South Carolina could skip playing A&M and play Tennessee or Kentucky twice if they had to. Keep the teams as isolated as possible from the regular students during the season. All teams tested the following Monday after games. I think teams can still fly since they charter jets and they can clean them.

If you look at the English Premier League, they are testing around 2,500 players, staff and other personnel every week and they are having hardly any positives. They've had as low as 0 or 1 test positive and as many as 6 one week if I'm remembering correctly. I heard an English Chap say recently the EPL can do this because the furthest match a team has to travel is about 6 hours by bus, so this prevents the spread. I know some schools it would be hard to do this out west, but I think it can be done.


Oh yea....no fans.


What do you think?

I don’t understand how us playing for instance, LSU twice in one season, protects our players from Covid Vs Having to play Kentucky or Georgia? Not to mention, who’s gonna agree to suit up vs Alabama twice? While USC plays Kentucky twice.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Sounds like a better shot than any other thing on the table, but I don't think it's a good comp at this point. There was a time when the UK and US were on similar paths with similar daily cases. Now we have almost 100 times the daily case count.

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I think at this point it's going to have to be let them play if they are not symptomatic. If it's let them play only if they are not positive, it's going to be a pickup game a lot of weeks. I don't see anyway we can keep 100 college students from not getting exposed..... Saban will have the whole team volunteering at the ER in Houston in a couple of weeks with masks if you have to be negative before games.

 

[L4Dawg]

The EPL is in a bit different situation. They just went off lockdown in England this past weekend, and it was way stricter than ours. . Their outbreak is, for now, MUCH better controlled. Also their players are pretty much in a bubble within a bubble within a bubble. The players and everyone who comes in contact with them are tested twice a week. They have some VERY draconian rules.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

MSU is very centrally located. We probably wouldn't have to play the same school twice. You might as well add shorten the season by at least one game too. Who really needs to play Stephen F Austin anyway?

Sucks for SFA type schools though.

 

[AROB44]

With our luck, we would have to play Alabama twice.

 

[mount lefroy]

First of all everything has to be done regionally. That means out of conference games are played vs instate schools or neighboring states's schools. You may even have to play teams in your conference twice. Example: South Carolina could skip playing A&M and play Tennessee or Kentucky twice if they had to. Keep the teams as isolated as possible from the regular students during the season. All teams tested the following Monday after games. I think teams can still fly since they charter jets and they can clean them.

If you look at the English Premier League, they are testing around 2,500 players, staff and other personnel every week and they are having hardly any positives. They've had as low as 0 or 1 test positive and as many as 6 one week if I'm remembering correctly. I heard an English Chap say recently the EPL can do this because the furthest match a team has to travel is about 6 hours by bus, so this prevents the spread. I know some schools it would be hard to do this out west, but I think it can be done.


Oh yea....no fans.


What do you think?

This season, at least in the fall months,is circling the drain.

It's not about how individual schools cope. It's how conferences and the ncaa cannot come to a uniform way of regulating travel and testing.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Yeah but we're testing a ton of people. England never did. They only tested really sick people like we did at the beginning. England has a 15.4% mortality rate confirmed tests vs confirmed cases. This whole case count thing is a sham because there's been so many more people exposed to this than we'll ever be able to test. Germany opened back up and their infection rate sky rocketed again. I think it's called the "r rate?" You want it under 1 and Germany went from a .7 to a 2.8 a few weeks after opening. England will probably be the same.

First it was flatten the curve, then it was we need more testing and now we've tested 36 million people in America. Right now folks who want to keep controlling people are desparately HOPING hospitalization rates get out of control and right fortunately they are not although they are rising.

I'm glad more context is being shared about ICU bed capacity. ICU bed capacity is always large for situations like these, but it's not nearly as large as it could be for two big reasons. One: a hospital system is a business and too many spare bed, is lost revenue. Second, almost any hospital bed can be turned into an ICU bed if needed, so really the "capacity" number is artificially smaller than the actual ICU capacity. Stopping elective surgeries is one sure way to increase ICU capacity as well. I've also seen around 36% of ICU beds are by covid patients, so yeah it's a hell of a virus that it putting older, at risk health wise people in the hospital, but the deaths are falling (lowest since late March in the US yesterday) and the average age of the person being infected is falling and we're finding more and more asymptomatic folks who have it or have had it. We have to learn to deal with this.

Wear masks people. It'll stop the spread.

 

[The Usual Suspect]

We should volunteer to play OM and ARK 6 times each.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Your data is off. The UK has tested a shitload of people. 10 million plus. Per capita, about 36% more than the US. Their deaths per million is higher than the US at 652 compared to 401.

They have stayed on lockdown considerably longer than we did. That's why case counts are so low in the UK... Much like NY and NJ. When Texas opened bars in May we had less than 1000 cases per day at a 4-5% positivity rate. Now it's 7-8000 at 14% positivity. Pubs opened Saturday in the UK. I would expect there numbers to go back up before too long.

People are not very likely to get real sick during warm weather, because that's the case with 99% of respiratory viruses. (Virus weaker, immune system stronger) As temps cool, expect hospitalizations and death rates to increase. It happens every year and will this year. I have no idea how that will be handled, but odds are shutdowns will happen when hospitals get threatened. It should be fine until then.

With all of this in mind, my original point is there is no way we are going to get to a point where this is under control at the level the UK is at today. So we either have to live with positive players on the field or expose them all before the season. Cause if 5-10 a week test positive and have to sit out a week or 2 it's not worth playing.

I see as I am writing this FC Dallas, just had to withdraw from the MLS tournament. So here we go. Whether justified or not.... The fear has set.

 

[GloryDawg]

Your data is off. The UK has tested a shitload of people. 10 million plus. Per capita, about 36% more than the US. Their deaths per million is higher than the US at 652 compared to 401.

They have stayed on lockdown considerably longer than we did. That's why case counts are so low in the UK... Much like NY and NJ. When Texas opened bars in May we had less than 1000 cases per day at a 4-5% positivity rate. Now it's 7-8000 at 14% positivity. Pubs opened Saturday in the UK. I would expect there numbers to go back up before too long.

People are not very likely to get real sick during warm weather, because that's the case with 99% of respiratory viruses. (Virus weaker, immune system stronger) As temps cool, expect hospitalizations and death rates to increase. It happens every year and will this year. I have no idea how that will be handled, but odds are shutdowns will happen when hospitals get threatened. It should be fine until then.

With all of this in mind, my original point is there is no way we are going to get to a point where this is under control at the level the UK is at today. So we either have to live with positive players on the field or expose them all before the season. Cause if 5-10 a week test positive and have to sit out a week or 2 it's not worth playing.

I see as I am writing this FC Dallas, just had to withdraw from the MLS tournament. So here we go. Whether justified or not.... The fear has set.

Wait two week the alarm will be sounded in the UK and Europe.

 

[TNT.sixpack]

I still fail to understand how we could play a team from a next-door state (LSU or bama) and our players are less likely to get the virus than if we played say Kentucky or Missouri? What am I missing?

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Wait two week the alarm will be sounded in the UK and Europe.

Yup.

 

[engie]

The UK has less than 50% the cases per capita, but 1.75x the death rate per capita, while testing 16% of their total population. Between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7 that have tested positive there has purportedly died of covid. Half as likely to get it there, twice as likely to kill you in the peak of this thing.

Meanwhile, Texas is 20 days into their spike in cases, with deaths still flat.
Florida is 18 days into their spike in cases. Deaths flat.
Arizona is 39 days into their case spike. Deaths @ a 7 day average of 31, up from 27 in early May. Small uptick mainly driven by a couple of really bad days that I'm guessing include a bunch of previous death certificates positives.

How many months into "two more weeks" must we go before just admitting that whatever made it so bad in NYC, Jersey, and the UK just isn't holding true for elsewhere?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

I'm just going by the official data tracking: https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+.....69i57j0l7.6366j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

They say 286,000 cases and 44,236 deaths. That's a 15.4% mortality rate. That tells me they aren't testing nearly as many people.

This is from 6/14/20: "The Department of Health and Social Care said there have been 6,772,602 tests so far and 295,889 people have tested positive in total."
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/uk-...-in-months-positive-cases-slightly-up/1876824

So 6,772,602 cases and 295,889 deaths to date when that article was written: 4.36% positive rate.

US current positive rate: The overall percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 increased from week 25 (8.1%) to week 26 (8.7%) nationally, driven by increases in seven regions. National percentages of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 by type of laboratory:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

So really their mortality rate must actually be a lot higher than the US. Why is that so? Is our hospital system that much better?

I think the answer MUST be they have way way way more cases than they've confirmed. It's extremely easy to get tested in Florida. I've done it twice now after being exposed to three who tested positive I was around, but I was negative for covid and the anti bodies.

Also, maybe they don't count a positive anti body test as a covid positive like the US does?

 

[TheStateUofMS]

It's better to not have teams traveling in mass across the country non stop. LSU and UK not much difference for Miss St, but Miami playing Boston College may not make a lot of sense. Maybe UF doesn't play Mizz. Situations like that.

Bowl Season as usual though.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

People are making it harder than it is. It's not likely to kill middle aged to younger people who are relatively healthy. As Joe Lee has said the warmer months do help immune systems too. That's a big part.

 

[fishwater99]

The EPL is in a bit different situation. They just went off lockdown in England this past weekend, and it was way stricter than ours. . Their outbreak is, for now, MUCH better controlled. Also their players are pretty much in a bubble within a bubble within a bubble. The players and everyone who comes in contact with them are tested twice a week. They have some VERY draconian rules.

I don’t think people understand that we’re nowhere near having this under control.
We are hopefully going to have some professional sports but I don’t see any college sports this fall.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Football. Is. Not. Happening. The sooner you come to that realization, the better.

 

[Tall Dawg]

And IF it does happen...to happen...we won’t be playing the same SEC teams twice in same regular season. That’s silly talk.

 

[engie]

I don’t think people understand that we’re nowhere near having this under control.
We are hopefully going to have some professional sports but I don’t see any college sports this fall.

Well, it can't go very much further "out of control" before it burns itself out. We're at almost 1% of the country tested positive. Which probably equates to 10-25% having actually had it. With new models thinking herd immunity might happen below 50% overall. https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...-covid-19-herd-immunity-be-lower-than-thought

Of course, that number really only works in the case of not having an exponential outbreak all at once(the herd can't protect if it's all sick at once). It's just got to stay somewhat in control for long enough for enough people to recover that it naturally starts to slow down. That's when we'll know we are actually halfway home on this.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

Then you may have to shorten the season.

 

[patdog]

Much easier to isolate players in the professional ranks. But I have my doubts as to how willing the players will be to do it for an entire season. We're seeing MLB and NBA players opt out even with shortened seasons.

 

[fishwater99]

And IF it does happen...to happen...we won’t be playing the same SEC teams twice in same regular season. That’s silly talk.

I agree. Stupid idea. We are not Liberty.