Head-scratching stats from RU at USC

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,578
12,892
78
Not sure you guys even watched the game but game wasn’t over at 51-32 which was under the 16 timeout. Bad start to the half. But by the 11 minute mark their lead was down to 9. Mark finally hit 2 threes and we were starting to crash the boards. Had a bunch of good looks but shots didn’t go down . Otherwise would have cut it further. Stayed there until the 6 minute mark with the refs calling a foul on every trip against USC letting them go to the line and expand the lead to 17 with 4:30 left. Then we made our run with our effective press. If the game is another 2 minutes we win. There was never a feeling the game was over .

Regarding Francis the little lower minutes was unusual yesterday . He got 2 fouls in the first half and had to sit a few and had 4 in the second half late and was being subbed out offense defense . He is normally playing 30-33 minutes a night coming off the bench. He doesn’t have the stamina to play 40 minutes and play offense and defense. The energy he expends on offense fighting thru hedges on screens and having to create takes a ton of energy. He rarely gets a catch and shoot shot . Maybe starting second half when we are down a lot makes some sense but normally he plays the most minutes anyway.
He has been great in his microwave role and has done a great job of getting his own shot .

He was very good yesterday as was Dylan. The reason we lost was we got almost nothing from Buchanan , JMike and Manny.We gave up too many paint points to Assar and Cofie especially on the first half and early second . Manny’s missed dunk was a killer as we were down 38-30 and would have cut it to 6 in the first half. We didn’t rebound well especially in the first half . We got something out of Mark and Powers and Pike correctly went with Mark over JMike who reverted to being very tentative yesterday. Buchanan was also not decisive yesterday and that hurt. Missed a lot of good shots yesterday as we had 23 more shots than USC.

It wasn’t “over”. But the point is the margin of error with a team than has the limitations we have on interior defense is thin. We’re not built for massive come backs and those opening minutes of both halves cost us a combined net of at least 10 points on the +/-.
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
Subject to change but these are my current thoughts:
Guys you have to retain:
- Francis (duh)
- Grant (solid player when healthy and will have plenty of Big 10 experience)
- Dortch (he's getting better and I like him off the bench
- Ogbole - as the 2nd big man off the bench
- JMike - I know a lot of people are down on JMike but he's an "older" guy now and he's seen a lot of Big 10 basketball. And he shouldn't be overly expensive.
- Zrno - he's not ice cold anymore. He is getting some confidence. We need his offense.
- Buchanan - such a high character person. How can you not want him in that locker room.

Guys I'm OK with losing
- Powers - obviously a ton of potential and I like his confidence. But his shooting percentage is way too low. He's basically a turnover every time he takes a shot. It would depend on the asking price but I'd rather swap him out with a similar player that makes more shots.
- Mark - I like him but again, too unreliable on offense. It would depend on the asking price.
- Nwuli - I know a lot of people will disagree, but I think he's going to perceive greener pastures elsewhere so it will be hard to retain him at a reasonable price point
- Badalau - I'd give him the 12th roster spot if he was willing to accept a backup role and backup comp.

Anyone I haven't mentioned needs to look at dropping to a mid major.
Lou, I think you are selling all the freshman short. I see potential in all 3 non Euro freshmen. Powers shot will get better over time and he has shown the ability to drive. He has perfect form on his jumper just has to learn to slow down getting into shooting position. His defense was decent and now not so good but that can improve.
Mark is a spark plug , He has speed and he has to learn how to harness it . Not sure his shot will ever be great but he can be a true point guard and his defense is good enough
Nwuili can become a defensive stopper plus he can rebound more. I think we haven’t seen his offensive capability but I think he has some. He can drive and hit a mid range and might step out and hit a 3.
Think we forget they are freshman , a lot of nights playing against 21-22 year old grown men. We used to expect little from our freshmen and be happy when they provided more . Let them develop more. Pike gets criticized and rightfully so for his portal and bench picks that do not pan out. I think he got it right on all 3 of these freshman and Zrbo. Badalau had to go back to Europe We need a power forward and a center badly
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
It wasn’t “over”. But the point is the margin of error with a team than has the limitations we have on interior defense is thin. We’re not built for massive come backs and those opening minutes of both halves cost us a combined net of at least 10 points on the +/-.
But if the refs call the 5 travels on USC that were clearly missed , we win the game. If the game was another minute longer we win the game. Their low post dominance was neutralized the last part of the game and nanny finally got a couple of blocks. Refs also called a bunch of ticky tack fouls that let them extend the lead from 9 to 17
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,578
12,892
78
Subject to change but these are my current thoughts:
Guys you have to retain:
- Francis (duh)
- Grant (solid player when healthy and will have plenty of Big 10 experience)
- Dortch (he's getting better and I like him off the bench
- Ogbole - as the 2nd big man off the bench
- JMike - I know a lot of people are down on JMike but he's an "older" guy now and he's seen a lot of Big 10 basketball. And he shouldn't be overly expensive.
- Zrno - he's not ice cold anymore. He is getting some confidence. We need his offense.
- Buchanan - such a high character person. How can you not want him in that locker room.

Guys I'm OK with losing
- Powers - obviously a ton of potential and I like his confidence. But his shooting percentage is way too low. He's basically a turnover every time he takes a shot. It would depend on the asking price but I'd rather swap him out with a similar player that makes more shots.
- Mark - I like him but again, too unreliable on offense. It would depend on the asking price.
- Nwuli - I know a lot of people will disagree, but I think he's going to perceive greener pastures elsewhere so it will be hard to retain him at a reasonable price point
- Badalau - I'd give him the 12th roster spot if he was willing to accept a backup role and backup comp.

Anyone I haven't mentioned needs to look at dropping to a mid major.

Your list would seem right provided salary demands are not a factor (which we can’t assume). It’s kind of hard to really say who (besides Francis) should be prioritized to return because we don’t know their starting points on money. We need to pay offer fair market value for Francis and hopefully he won’t get greedy because he’s unlikely to find a team that will plan to build around his skills for next season the way Rutgers potentially could.

We have one frosh recruit and for now let’s assume Jones will honor his commitment and that will make 2.

Keeping 5-6 guys on the current team besides Francis should be the goal because going after more than 6 players max in the transfer portal is a terrible idea. We will NOT land more than 2.5 lock high major caliber players total for the simple reason being we (like mostly everyone else) will 100% have to overpay for them. I consider a Buchanan level kid the half (for perspective) and if we were to get to 2.5, I’d consider that a huge success. We got to 0.5 this season (Buchanan only) for perspective. Low majors and the kids of Euros we brought in do not count. They are a crap shoot - polar opposite of slam dunk. If we brought back 6 guys, and the 2 frosh we would need a minimum of 5 portal guys and could take up to 7. As I said - 2.5 slam dunks would be a phenomenal recruiting cycle if we accomplish it (2 plug and plays plus an A-10 double digit scorer). We’re not doing better than that. So even if you assume we accomplish this, that would still mean we’re bringing in 2-4 low major or Euro guys that we hope to hit on if we return 6 current players. It is asinine to only bring back 2-3 guys from our team and go on an extensive shopping spree in the low major portal for 8-10 pieces. It won’t work.
 
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G- RUnit

All-American
Sep 13, 2004
14,376
7,977
113
Suspect it will increase???? There is hardly season left, when does this increase come in the Big 10 tourney? I think Pike might doing these posts. The point is his minutes already should be at 32-34 mpg. He should not be sitting at 26 at this point 22 games into the season, his minutes have been mismanaged especially when you consider the LACK OF TALENT on this roster. Can you believe that BAD-alau was starting with a role on this team? He has my lateral quickness and I am 56. Talent evaluation, rotations, minutes per player, is very, very up and down with Pike. But with Francis it’s an easy layup to see with a screaming neon sign he has needed more minutes all year based upon the poor roster Pike assembled.
Still have all of February. I think he should have more minutes as well, but again he has to do so much.
I think it’s a very fine line between more minutes and being absolutely gassed.
 
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G- RUnit

All-American
Sep 13, 2004
14,376
7,977
113
I think Lino provides a spark and you can see the potential in Powers. The shots are pure and usually good ones. Know he will only get better and may have the most upside when he will start hitting.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,578
12,892
78
But if the refs call the 5 travels on USC that were clearly missed , we win the game. If the game was another minute longer we win the game. Their low post dominance was neutralized the last part of the game and nanny finally got a couple of blocks. Refs also called a bunch of ticky tack fouls that let them extend the lead from 9 to 17

We could’ve won. For sure. But calls not going your way is part of the game. Meanwhile the offense has quietly pulled into the KenPom top 150 despite having zero post threat. Considering what he has to work with, this has arguably been one of Pike’s best offensive outputs ever at Rutgers. It’s too bad the D is so terrible.
 
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goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
We could’ve won. For sure. But calls not going your way is part of the game. Meanwhile the offense has quietly pulled into the KenPom top 150 despite having zero post threat. Considering what he has to work with, this has arguably been one of Pike’s best offensive outputs ever at Rutgers. It’s too bad the D is so terrible.
When he puts Francis , Grant , Buchanan , Zrno and either Manny or Dorsch in the game together you have some semblance of an offensive game but only with aggressiveness especially shooting the 3. Buchanan has to drive and not hesitant . Dylan has to dry as well but also let it go from 3 and Zrno has to keep shooting. Francis can kill in his mid range game and at the foul line . Subbing out Powers for Zrno should lead to continued 3’s and Powers has shown some ability to drive . JMike if aggressive and not just looking to set up gets him more minutes and then you can go 2 guesses with Buchanan or Grant sitting . If Mark is pushing it and converting at the rim or getting fouled , while setting up team as a true point guard sand playing tough defense , he plays over JMike. Nwuili can spell Buchanan or Dylan or even Zrno with Buchanan and Dylan remaining on the court. Pike has to manage these rotations to what is working and what produces the best offensive shots. Our defense is mediocre at best and unlikely to get better . We have to aggressive offensively.
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,578
12,892
78
Lou, I think you are selling all the freshman short. I see potential in all 3 non Euro freshmen. Powers shot will get better over time and he has shown the ability to drive. He has perfect form on his jumper just has to learn to slow down getting into shooting position. His defense was decent and now not so good but that can improve.
Mark is a spark plug , He has speed and he has to learn how to harness it . Not sure his shot will ever be great but he can be a true point guard and his defense is good enough
Nwuili can become a defensive stopper plus he can rebound more. I think we haven’t seen his offensive capability but I think he has some. He can drive and hit a mid range and might step out and hit a 3.
Think we forget they are freshman , a lot of nights playing against 21-22 year old grown men. We used to expect little from our freshmen and be happy when they provided more . Let them develop more. Pike gets criticized and rightfully so for his portal and bench picks that do not pan out. I think he got it right on all 3 of these freshman and Zrbo. Badalau had to go back to Europe We need a power forward and a center badly

I think it’s more a question of getting straight what we’re targeting in the portal as those top priorities first, and figuring out what it’s going to take to keep Francis promptly and then figuring out who it makes sense to keep at Rutgers based on salary requirements, positions of need, etc.

We need to bring in a defensive forward. Ideally someone who isn’t totally inept on offense but the massive hole is on D and we need someone whose a proven high major level defender. If we’re also bringing back both Grant and Buchanan, plus we have a frosh forward in the class, Nwuli might not want to stick around.

Guard is kind of a similar situation as we have Dorian Jones coming in. With Zrno and Tariq just not sure you have room for Powers. I think it could be an either or with those 2 Zrno / Powers. Similar situation with Lino and J Mike. If we’re looking to take a PG or even a point forward to play with Tariq, I’m not sure there’s room for both of them on the roster. Sooner take a frosh PG for third string duties.
 
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bac2therac

Hall of Famer
Jul 30, 2001
249,036
178,438
113
But if the refs call the 5 travels on USC that were clearly missed , we win the game. If the game was another minute longer we win the game. Their low post dominance was neutralized the last part of the game and nanny finally got a couple of blocks. Refs also called a bunch of ticky tack fouls that let them extend the lead from 9 to 17
Lol if Usc made a basket at 74-61 they probably still win by double digits

RU trailed by double digits over half the game. The game was largely played 8-17 point defecit. 4 minutes of implosion doesnt change that and yes I know the game is 40 minutes long and im sure Musselmen let his team have it
 

Loyal-Son

All-Conference
Jan 5, 2016
1,575
2,911
81
The irony is for all the complaining that Pike runs no offense - we had a great offensive plan yesterday for the time period when Tariq was in the game.


Pike had a very good offensive plan for when Francis was in the game. Even when we missed - the guys were all getting good looks. We scored a total of 12 points in the third of the game that Francis was on the bench. The problem is nobody else is good enough to warrant focal point attention from the opponent. The guys capable of putting up big numbers are either one dimensional (only a threat on the perimeter - Zrno, J Mike, etc. or score their points quietly as the complement when the focus is on a guy like Francis (Dylan Grant). This isn’t a problem Pike can solve with his personnel. Keeping Francis in is really the only option. The argument about keeping him fresh only has merit on D. That’s why I say - every second Tariq sits should be dedicated to full court press and trying to create offense from D.
Appreciate the thoughtful analysis.
 
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PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,578
12,892
78
When he puts Francis , Grant , Buchanan , Zrno and either Manny or Dorsch in the game together you have some semblance of an offensive game but only with aggressiveness especially shooting the 3. Buchanan has to drive and not hesitant . Dylan has to dry as well but also let it go from 3 and Zrno has to keep shooting. Francis can kill in his mid range game and at the foul line . Subbing out Powers for Zrno should lead to continued 3’s and Powers has shown some ability to drive . JMike if aggressive and not just looking to set up gets him more minutes and then you can go 2 guesses with Buchanan or Grant sitting . If Mark is pushing it and converting at the rim or getting fouled , while setting up team as a true point guard sand playing tough defense , he plays over JMike. Nwuili can spell Buchanan or Dylan or even Zrno with Buchanan and Dylan remaining on the court. Pike has to manage these rotations to what is working and what produces the best offensive shots. Our defense is mediocre at best and unlikely to get better . We have to aggressive offensively.

It seemed like they made a lot of modifications on offense actually for the USC game. A lot more cutting and movement from Tariq. Made him harder to keep track of. We ran pick and roll to get him his jumper which is typically a shot teams are willing to give up, but in Tariq’s case he hits it almost as efficiently as a back door lay up. Having to account for him left other guys open and Tariq was finding them. That’s how he ended up with 5 assists. If only we had bigs who could put the ball through the net, but I really do see hope for us if we could recruit the right portal additions to plug the holes.

The main thing I would not do is pay a premium in the portal this offseason for additional sharp shooters with questionable D (which is basically the best we’ll be able to do because great defensive sharp shooters at the power level will all be priced out of our league). We have 5 guys averaging 32.6% or better from deep. We’re not great from 3 but not as bad as usual. Need to focus on the defensive frontcourt issues and lack of an interior scoring threat.
 

Caliknight

Hall of Famer
Sep 21, 2001
196,748
148,835
113
We need to get older. These teams we play all have men on their teams. It's very obvious in person.
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
Lol if Usc made a basket at 74-61 they probably still win by double digits

RU trailed by double digits over half the game. The game was largely played 8-17 point defecit. 4 minutes of implosion doesnt change that and yes I know the game is 40 minutes long and im sure Musselmen let his team have it
I get it , you want to give Rutgers no credit for the comeback But you claimed the game was over but w Dec at 51-32 at the under 16 minute timeout. I asked if you watched the game because we got it to 9 at the under 12 timeout. If you think it wasn’t a game there , I wonder why. I know you are not big on refs having anything to do with the game but they called 3 questionable or rocky tacky calls on us to let them to get the lead back to 16. We were getting good looks the shots were not going down.
Then the press and again I know you don’t count on the refs but they missed UsC players walking 4-5 times which if called we likely take the lead before the end of the game I was a legitimate comeback and maybe even you would admit not just that USC imploded but if the game was a minute longer we win.
This wasn’t out of reach like Wisconsin where we were down 26 and just kept playing and shooting well. This went from 16 to 9 in less than 4 minutes with plenty of time left plus we were getting good shots they just didn’t go down. Being there in person it never felt hopeless.
Interesting you gave Rutgers no credit for the comeback just that USC imploded. Rutgers press made them implode , walk over and over and never called and really had a chance to win that game .
 

PSAL_Hoops

Heisman
Feb 18, 2008
13,578
12,892
78
I get it , you want to give Rutgers no credit for the comeback But you claimed the game was over but w Dec at 51-32 at the under 16 minute timeout. I asked if you watched the game because we got it to 9 at the under 12 timeout. If you think it wasn’t a game there , I wonder why. I know you are not big on refs having anything to do with the game but they called 3 questionable or rocky tacky calls on us to let them to get the lead back to 16. We were getting good looks the shots were not going down.
Then the press and again I know you don’t count on the refs but they missed UsC players walking 4-5 times which if called we likely take the lead before the end of the game I was a legitimate comeback and maybe even you would admit not just that USC imploded but if the game was a minute longer we win.
This wasn’t out of reach like Wisconsin where we were down 26 and just kept playing and shooting well. This went from 16 to 9 in less than 4 minutes with plenty of time left plus we were getting good shots they just didn’t go down. Being there in person it never felt hopeless.
Interesting you gave Rutgers no credit for the comeback just that USC imploded. Rutgers press made them implode , walk over and over and never called and really had a chance to win that game .

I don’t disagree with any of this. However, the point still stands that unless we have guys like Zrno and J Mike shooting lights out from 3 out of the gate (which isn’t going to happen often), offense is a major struggle for us until Tariq enters the game. At this point, just the threat of his offense opens up the game and Pike is doing a good job adjusting the offensive ball rotations to leverage this. If Pike wants to stick with his line ups, I’d like to at least start to see us applying a full court press out of the gates both halves until we pick up a couple team fouls. He has to do something different.
 

goru7

All-American
Dec 12, 2005
6,437
7,731
113
I don’t disagree with any of this. However, the point still stands that unless we have guys like Zrno and J Mike shooting lights out from 3 out of the gate (which isn’t going to happen often), offense is a major struggle for us until Tariq enters the game. At this point, just the threat of his offense opens up the game and Pike is doing a good job adjusting the offensive ball rotations to leverage this. If Pike wants to stick with his line ups, I’d like to at least start to see us applying a full court press out of the gates both halves until we pick up a couple team fouls. He has to do something different.
Don’t disagree about the press part to start both halves . However , then you have a MSU game with offensive aggression off the bat and a comfortable halftime lead or Ohio State. The inconsistency in the offensive agression is the culprit. I just saw a clip on Twitter with Hurley and Geno Auriemma talking how they don’t recruit defense which they can teach but rather offensive players that can score . Geno said get him 3 one thousand point scorers and he would win forever . Think Pike has to emphasize attacking aggressive offense , getting up shots, first good shot after 1 swing of the ball and continue that. If he recruits size , defense can be taught to be serviceable and maybe good