Think you're forgetting that 2016 team was a possession away from beating Kansas in Phog and that Kansas ended up being a possession away from beating the eventual national champs Villanova. It's all about matchups and that team was just not capable of hanging with anybody who had a serviceable big man. That 2016 team certainly had the capability of making a final four it was just dependent on getting the right matchups and Murray/Ulis getting hot.
I see no similarities between 2016 and 2019 just because of depth and experience. Maxey will be on Knight/Murray's level and Hagans will take that sophomore step. Quickley will be much improved, Juzang will have enormous upside, and not sure if Allen will play but he could provide shooting off bench. Whitney has a lot of potential and so does Brooks. EJ showed flashes and I agree he will need to develop some type of go to move down low to be productive but I believe he will. NR can provide rebounding and shot-blocking and Sestina will add experience and shooting. Think some people forget he averaged 16 and 9 last year and was right behind Blackshear as number #2 grad transfer.
I also think if Cal was not satisfied with his bigs he would have gotten Blackshear. The comment he made where he said "if we add someone great if we don't then we're fine" is pretty telling to me that he's fine with where we are at.
By the way, the front courts of Texas Tech and Virginia combined for a whopping 17 points in the title game and the other two teams who made the final four had the best PG (Mich St) and the best set of guards (Auburn). The teams who win in March have great guards that can take over games late and the big men serve more as role players which is what I think NR, EJ, and Sestina will provide.
The difference is the NCAAT is a different animal. The pressure is higher and it's a completely different stage.
That 2016 KU team, on paper, was miles better than Indiana, but IU beat us easily in the tournament even though we had KU on the ropes in Allen Fieldhouse.
Bryant pounded us on the glass and there was nothing we could do about it. Plus, our all star guards kind of fizzled out in the IU game.
You have a lot of things in your post that you're thinking are definites.
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Juzang will have enormous upside… I'm not sure what that upside is, do you? Everyone thinks he's the next SGA or Herro. There's certainly no guarantee there.
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Maxey is going to be like Knight and/or Murray. Yeah, well, he's supposed to be very good, but you're putting him up there with some top notch shooters. This is probably your prediction with the most realistic possibility of happening. Murray was a guy that played with grown men before he came to UK, Maxey is good, but Murray just signed a max deal for a reason. Are you taking Maxey over Murray? You can't, because you don't know.
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EJ showed flashes… flashes of what? He's talented, but what are you eluding to here? Is he going to be better than a senior Poythress? We don't know. I hope so, but you can't say he will be.
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Hagans is going to take that Sophomore step. Does this mean he's going to be a great shooter.or something? Hopefully he won't turn the ball over like he did in 19, but he's no Tyler Ulis.
-Quickly will be much improved… we said the same thing about Charles Matthews and Mychal Mulder?
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Nate Sestina will add experience and shooting… well, he played at Bucknell. Yeah, he's been in college, but he hasn't had to play legit power 5 competition night in and night out like he's about to. He's certainly going to be more mature and should definitely add some stability, but he's going to need time to adjust too.
As far as what the UVA and Texas Tech bigs did lasy year, you can't compare UK to UVA, they play a stifling pack-line defense, they had stud guards that hit open threes and they were a veteran team.
Texas Tech had a senior Tariq Owens that exploded in the tournament. maybe EJ can do the same, I'm not sure. They also had senior pg Matt Mooney. Now, if Hagans performs like Mooney did in the tournament, we may not need much more than a few bench players to help him out. Mooney lit it up in the tournament. Then there was Jared Culver. Kid was a stud, was held in check for large stretches, but hit shots when he needed to.
UK could certainly follow the path set by Texas Tech, but runs like that don't happen all that often. UK did that in the 2014 tournament. It was magical, but rare.
Look, there's no doubt that UK will be talented, but we see this every year. We're still very young and I still think we are missing 3 very key things: a stud big, outside shooting and senior leadership.
