I think Leach needs to win 2 of the last 3 conference games to warrant a bump, but that's just me. And as we all know, there have been a lot of extended contracts worth millions of dollars based on pretty common results.
He's going to get an extension that comes with a bump that is basically "inflation" (at least for coaches salary) because he's more or less met expectations. Came in and had a bad first year with some very small flashes while he was installing the offense. Has showed progress this second year and gotten people excited even if there were some pretty frustrating games.
If he finishes 3-1, he'll get a real raise and if he finishes 4-0 he's it will be even bigger.
The one thing we have going for us at this point is there is basically nowhere he can go that is an upgrade that is going to accept two years of offensive struggles while he gets his offense in. They'll be calling for his head at the end of year one. Plus at this age, I can't imagine Leach wants to spend two years of his remaining career struggling with players that are still learning to execute his offense. If Leach excels and wants to max his pay from us, his leverage is retirement, not going to another school.