Everyone's favorite topic, Sweden (covid19)
- Thread starter msstate7
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Of the 6 million AC's sold in Europe in 2016, 88% were residential ductless mini splits... Likely only cooling bedrooms. Only 700,000 were into the commercial market segment. For comparison, in the US in 2016 we had 6.5 million commercial AC systems sold. Considering the population difference of 741 million vs 328 million, the net effect is there are more than 20 times more commercial AC units in the US than in Europe. So when you are in a commercial building (restaurant, store, office, school, etc) in the US in July, odds are you are sucking in cool dry recirculated AC air. In Europe, odds are there is a nice cool breeze of fresh air coming in an open window or there is a fan on you.
Johnson.. You are one of the better people I have seen on here in seeing truth in data. You interested if I start plotting some data on 30-40 countries in the northern hemisphere based on climate/AC penetration/case counts/deaths will you take a look? As I look at the countries that are having big spikes in cases/deaths in the northern hemisphere (Southern US, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, and more) the number one thing I can correlate is that they all seem to be hot as balls and people are congregating around the AC.
I also hypothesize that the worm will turn when the weather gets cold, because the hot climates will open a window and the colder ones will crank up the forced air heat and get inside to beat the cold.
Here's the link to the AC data I am using if anyone is interested.
https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/World_AC_Demand.pdf
You are basically rugBdawg on this. Always calling it in the middle of the game over and over and over again.
What I do know is Sweden is infinitely closer to herd immune than any of their neighbors and very well might be very close in much of the country.
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And here is a counterpoint to his “cautionary tale” article.
This article pretty much explains my thoughts of why there is a group that portray Sweden as they do.
https://fee.org/articles/why-sweden-succeeded-in-flattening-the-curve-and-new-york-failed/
It's increasingly looking like natural herd immunity isn't possible, but you keep on ignoring that stuff if it makes you feel better.
Looks like Oregon and Washington have basically tripled their daily case counts since the end of May. The positivity rate is pretty flat in Oregon and Washington too as both are around 6%. That sounds like what the president is talking about, an increase in testing.
Florida and Texas are up 12 and 9 fold respectively on daily case counts since the end of May. Texas positive rate is up around 17% and Florida is at 18%. Both were below 5% in May. That's an increase in testing and rate of spread.
Again, there are going to be variables across the world, but everywhere that cases and deaths are increasing significantly has a hot climate and AC... Back to the original point even states like Washington and Oregon have significantly more AC usage than Sweden.
Florida and Texas are up 12 and 9 fold respectively on daily case counts since the end of May. Texas positive rate is up around 17% and Florida is at 18%. Both were below 5% in May. That's an increase in testing and rate of spread.
Again, there are going to be variables across the world, but everywhere that cases and deaths are increasing significantly has a hot climate and AC... Back to the original point even states like Washington and Oregon have significantly more AC usage than Sweden.
He is seriously comparing Belgium to Sweden? I stopped right there. Their populations aren't similar at all except in size and Belgium has done the worst of any big country.
I have. These guys are SO scared that they will believe anything to try to ease their fears. They also want to do what they want no matter what the cost. They are going to take a lot of people down because of it. I will still point out their willful ignorance and it's cost.
Why is it so hard for your to consider the possibility that Sweden was right, and the rest of the world may not have chosen the best route? You seem to wallow in the belief that this virus is far deadlier than it's proving to be, and you discredit every source who disagrees with you. Is being right that important to you?
Because they aren't right. They botched it bigtime. We are basically doing what they did now. Or numbers in MS were terrible today.
Viruses run their course....mask maybe will buy a little time, but the Virus will run its course.
Oh yea? Based on what evidence?
What I see is everywhere in the world that the virus reached ~ 20% actual infection, it slowed way down and has thusfar stayed that way. Whether wide open(Sweden) or locked down(Italy). Based on death percentage which we all need to admit is a better indicator than number of positive tests, the US is getting pretty close to the 20% threshold.
Yeah. Housing costs can be high. Like you, I've been to Europe twice in the past five years.
In Dublin, specifically, housing costs are expensive. Sinn Fein got a lot of votes the last Irish election because of high housing costs.
If I ever wanted to live in Ireland, I'd pick somewhere near their west coast. Maybe Donegal, near Galway, or possibly Kerry.
Barcelona was crowded when I was there and it has a strong anti-tourist sentiment. Madrid & Seville can be crowded.
Granada attracts a lot of tourists because of the Alhambra but the food is fabulous there. If I wanted to live in a city, that's where I'd want to be.
In Dublin, specifically, housing costs are expensive. Sinn Fein got a lot of votes the last Irish election because of high housing costs.
If I ever wanted to live in Ireland, I'd pick somewhere near their west coast. Maybe Donegal, near Galway, or possibly Kerry.
Barcelona was crowded when I was there and it has a strong anti-tourist sentiment. Madrid & Seville can be crowded.
Granada attracts a lot of tourists because of the Alhambra but the food is fabulous there. If I wanted to live in a city, that's where I'd want to be.
It seems to me he's literally pulling for the virus and has been since the beginning. Any good news is poo pooed and he runs to the board any time the NYT throws out another coronabro hit piece.
Look on the bright side -- when Mississippi makes 20% here directly -- and it slows to a trickle -- he can credit Tate's toothless mask mandate rather than the reality that the virus has likely run it's course. At least through one cycle anyway.
New York has been a trickle since just before it made 2%(really 20%). So has New Jersey. We'll see as other locations creep up on that number. I do think a real lockdown for 2-3 weeks in these places @ about 20% real infected to pull the "current infections" number way down and the virus doesn't have enough hosts to ever show another true outbreak. As is, if 30-50k Mississippians are walking around with it at any given snapshot in time IMO, half of which don't know they have it at that time and therefore don't know to quarantine. It's always going to find new hosts with that many infected at one time. If we give it enough time for those people to gain immunity, we beat it. At least for awhile.
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Must be nice to pay nothing for defense and just rely on big brother to come back over there and save you again when it hits the fan again.
Not sure how many of these places are slowing down from having a critical mass already immune versus from just weather conditions (or really behavioral responses to weather) becoming less favorable for spread. Maybe some of the hardest hit places like New York have enough infected already. I guess we'll find out in the southeast and west where people are going to be spending a lot of time in air conditioning for the next two months.
What did you see that was anti-tourist? I was there like 7 years ago and don't remember seeing any? Of course, we were there in a February, so that might explain it.
The antibodies are not lasting that long. You had to have worked hard not to have seen that stuff. That's exactly what happens with cold viruses and the flu and we do not have herd immunity to them.
No, I'm just trying to counter act the appalling ignorance of a lot of people here. I realize most of it is willful ignorance but the effect is the same. It just makes it worse for all of us because of the actions they take based on it.
Tate Reeves on what getting to herd immunity (even if it IS possible) would mean:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/tate-reeves-mississippi-coronavirus-herd-immunity/index.html
It's sheer insanity. 3000 infections a day for a year would do far worse damage to the economy than a shut down, far worse. Some of y'all seem to have no concept of what that would do to our healthcare system. It would basically collapse. That would tank the economy FAR worse than any controlled shutdown. Some of y'all need to grow up and face reality.
Tate's statement was stupidity. It literally assumed positive tests as the only people getting COVID. He was only off by an immediate factor of 10 per the CDC. I do appreciate the link to fake news though who saw fit to reprint as if it was in any way factual though.
- Today's rate of 1000 cases/day is really 10,000 cases per day and actual infections of 385,670 as of today per CDC estimations of seroprevalence vs positive tests.
- 1.19 million @ 40% infection.
- 804,000 cases to go.
- We're 80 days away from Tate's 40% if cases flatten and stay at the current rate.
- If it continues to increase at the rate of increase since the beginning of this deal, we're 55ish days away.
Funny how one little tweak using the CDC as the guide creates a whole different picture.
- Today's rate of 1000 cases/day is really 10,000 cases per day and actual infections of 385,670 as of today per CDC estimations of seroprevalence vs positive tests.
- 1.19 million @ 40% infection.
- 804,000 cases to go.
- We're 80 days away from Tate's 40% if cases flatten and stay at the current rate.
- If it continues to increase at the rate of increase since the beginning of this deal, we're 55ish days away.
Funny how one little tweak using the CDC as the guide creates a whole different picture.
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Yet no one is really getting it twice. One or two anecdotes without any compelling evidence.
And to answer your flu idiocy -- yes, we gain herd immunity to every really bad flu. It just mutates constantly. Lest we be still fighting H1N1 or Spanish Flu, neither of which were NEARLY as contagious as Covid 19. The literal reason 2009 H1N1 wasn’t nearly as bad as initially feared was because of antibodies protection in people over 60 from a previous flu virus they had some time in the very distant past. Which is something we’re also going to eventually learn about Covid IMO.
So what you are saying is that immunity on this deal is going to react totally different than any other coronavirus? Because the shortest term there is, the common cold, lasts 6 months to 1 year. And SARS/MERS which this muchhhhh more closely relates to lasts for several years.
Again -- if getting it doesn't provide protection -- a vaccine isn't going to do anything at all. And you might as well go ahead and give up(again).
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Exactly right.
It is amazing to me that some on this board who have never taken a course in immunology, virology, or infectious disease, nor have ever taken care of a patient, nor ever gone to medical school, nor taken a course in medical statistics, nor know anything about hospital administration, can come on here with proclamations of knowledge in all.
Just remember, it's going to get really bad in 2 weeks.
Go back and re-read what the CDC director said... In the beginning when only the sick and elderly could get tested it was possibly 10-1... Specifically in New York /North East where there was obviously a massive outbreak and very little ability to test in March, April, and early May.
He specifically says that some areas are much lower and nationally it was 5-8% likely infected. The NE states are in the 20's. Texas was at 4.1% antibody positive on 150k antibody tests when last reported a few weeks ago. Back in early May MLB did an antibody test on 6000 employees and only 0.7% had antibodies.
But now there is no way it's 10-1. Asymptomatic people are getting tested at a massive rate. 2-3 times maybe, but not 10-1.
Below are the comments... Notice all of it. The 10-1 is the CDC's serology data. It needs to be refined. 5-8% nationally is probably a good estimate. Redfield' s words:
There are, as I mentioned before, states that are going to have antibody prevalence base of less than 2%, which would mean a majority of those individuals in those regions are still susceptible. There’s other areas like the New York metropolitan area that clearly had a higher penetration of antibody positivity and will have fewer individuals that remain susceptible. But all in all, I think you’re in the right range, that somewhere between 5%, 6%, 7%, 8% of the American public has experienced infection, whether they recognized it or not. The estimate that we have given you at this point is it appears that the rate is — and this is CDC’s serology data — that the rate is approximately ten seropositive antibody individuals for every one case. Obviously, that will be refined in the weeks ahead, but I think, you’re right, looks like somewhere between 5% and 8% of the American public.
I was in Spain in June a couple years ago— during tourist season.
I saw web articles mostly about people who live in cities who are upset at tourists being everywhere as well as companies like AirBnB that do short-term rentals and don’t rent long-term to people who live there.
Madrid went so far last year to ban AirBnB apartments that don’t have private entrances last year.
Link: Here.
Here’s an article from The Guardian about Barcelona’s disdain for tourism. Link. I went to a lot of places mentioned in that article. La Rambla, Plaça Catalunya, Barceloneta.
Every place was crowded. The Plaça & sidewalks along Passeig de Gràcia had vendors selling items— Texas A&M shirts, soccer shirts, & selfie sticks were the most memorable.
I saw web articles mostly about people who live in cities who are upset at tourists being everywhere as well as companies like AirBnB that do short-term rentals and don’t rent long-term to people who live there.
Madrid went so far last year to ban AirBnB apartments that don’t have private entrances last year.
Link: Here.
Here’s an article from The Guardian about Barcelona’s disdain for tourism. Link. I went to a lot of places mentioned in that article. La Rambla, Plaça Catalunya, Barceloneta.
Every place was crowded. The Plaça & sidewalks along Passeig de Gràcia had vendors selling items— Texas A&M shirts, soccer shirts, & selfie sticks were the most memorable.
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Interesting Stat. US did more Caronavirus test in last 7 days than Flu test last 3 years combined.
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