I haven't commented on the OT thread several of you partake in for quite awhile. But a couple of quick takeaways.
Q2 GDP was solid, but growth thus far this year is still only at about 1.2-1.5%. Not a good number and the jobs data looks soft (firing the BLS Director only has the impact of subtracting another job, not changing the data). The tariff policy as implemented (rather than what was announced) should not be a disaster, but it also isn't enhancing the economy and is likely dragging it down some due to it being moderately anti-growth and uncertainty. At best, it's raising a modest amount of revenue that should - but probably won't - go to reduce the yearly deficit by maybe 20%. I do anticipate growth to be better come 2026 fwiw.
In late 2023, I came on here and said "crime is falling, largely because Covid is receding in generating chaos." At least two posters (not you @rillaman , you aren't one of the two) lost their freaking minds about this. And boy do they look like asses in that debate. Final FBI statistics for 2024 are in, and the FBI data INCLUDES 96% OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION for those who might (stupidly) claim it's insufficient. The final numbers from 2024:
1. Murder - Down nearly 15% in 2024 (likely to hit a recorded low in 2025 as the year is seeing another yuge drop)
2. Violent Crime - Down 4.5% in 2024, reaching a low since the late 1960s
3. Property Crime - Down 8% in 2024, reaching a low since the early 1960s (I believe this is an all-time low as that's when recording began).
And 2025 is shaping up to be even better than 2025. So all the takes on Twitter, Fox News, Newsmax as Joe Biden's America being a crime ridden hellhole in 2024 were laughably wrong (not shocking btw). Of course, Biden had nothing to do with the decline from 2020-2022 or the improvement from 2023-present, crime is mostly dependent on factors outside of politics even where I think Democrats have worse crime prevention policies than Republicans.
But in summary, Covid was a chaotic event and positively it's mostly receded from a direct impact on everything but our terrible federal budget!
Q2 GDP was solid, but growth thus far this year is still only at about 1.2-1.5%. Not a good number and the jobs data looks soft (firing the BLS Director only has the impact of subtracting another job, not changing the data). The tariff policy as implemented (rather than what was announced) should not be a disaster, but it also isn't enhancing the economy and is likely dragging it down some due to it being moderately anti-growth and uncertainty. At best, it's raising a modest amount of revenue that should - but probably won't - go to reduce the yearly deficit by maybe 20%. I do anticipate growth to be better come 2026 fwiw.
In late 2023, I came on here and said "crime is falling, largely because Covid is receding in generating chaos." At least two posters (not you @rillaman , you aren't one of the two) lost their freaking minds about this. And boy do they look like asses in that debate. Final FBI statistics for 2024 are in, and the FBI data INCLUDES 96% OF THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION for those who might (stupidly) claim it's insufficient. The final numbers from 2024:
1. Murder - Down nearly 15% in 2024 (likely to hit a recorded low in 2025 as the year is seeing another yuge drop)
2. Violent Crime - Down 4.5% in 2024, reaching a low since the late 1960s
3. Property Crime - Down 8% in 2024, reaching a low since the early 1960s (I believe this is an all-time low as that's when recording began).
And 2025 is shaping up to be even better than 2025. So all the takes on Twitter, Fox News, Newsmax as Joe Biden's America being a crime ridden hellhole in 2024 were laughably wrong (not shocking btw). Of course, Biden had nothing to do with the decline from 2020-2022 or the improvement from 2023-present, crime is mostly dependent on factors outside of politics even where I think Democrats have worse crime prevention policies than Republicans.
But in summary, Covid was a chaotic event and positively it's mostly receded from a direct impact on everything but our terrible federal budget!
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