Just kind of sitting back a minute, at 13-9 already are we still in the running for an at-large bid at all? How many more losses are we expecting, and how far in the B1G tourney will we have to go to have a shot?
Do we have a shot at the NCAAs?
- Thread starter ScarletDave
- Start date
I think if RU can win 6 of their last 8 and finish 19-11/10-8 they are a virtual lock for an at large bid. The rpi is currently a decent enough 40 so that helps. Can this team win 6 of 8. Well that's another issue as this team has been bad on the road and still hasn't beaten top 25 competition
at Minnesota
at Penn State
Northwestern
at Illinois
Michigan State
Maryland
at Purdue
Michigan
This team has to earn its way in. Beating Minnesota on the road would be just huge and take the pressure off but its a good team and RU cant find wins on the road. Penn State is dangerous against RU. Northwestern has been slumping and Illinois is the worst team in the league. RU needs that Michigan State game no ands ifs or buts about it. Maryland is a sure loss. Purdue is improved so that game will be tough and Michigan is a game RU should have.
More likely RU goes 5-3 to finish 18-12/9-9 and finds themselves right smack on the bubble where they will need to definitely win one and possibly two to feel safe.
at Minnesota
at Penn State
Northwestern
at Illinois
Michigan State
Maryland
at Purdue
Michigan
This team has to earn its way in. Beating Minnesota on the road would be just huge and take the pressure off but its a good team and RU cant find wins on the road. Penn State is dangerous against RU. Northwestern has been slumping and Illinois is the worst team in the league. RU needs that Michigan State game no ands ifs or buts about it. Maryland is a sure loss. Purdue is improved so that game will be tough and Michigan is a game RU should have.
More likely RU goes 5-3 to finish 18-12/9-9 and finds themselves right smack on the bubble where they will need to definitely win one and possibly two to feel safe.
Good analysis bac. I've mentally done the same thing and came up with almost the same result. There is little margin for error.
bac is on target, although maybe a touch pessimistic For at least ten years, no team with an RPI of 35 or better and a winning record in a major conference has been left out of the tournament. Right now, RU is at RPI 34, and of course winning 6 of the last 8 would keep RU in the top 35.
Even at 9-9 in the B1G, I think RU would have an 18-12 record and a top 30 RPI, and it's hard for the committee to leave out a team like that. Very few 18-win major conference teams have been on the wrong side of the bubble.
Even at 9-9 in the B1G, I think RU would have an 18-12 record and a top 30 RPI, and it's hard for the committee to leave out a team like that. Very few 18-win major conference teams have been on the wrong side of the bubble.
Here's a slightly different question. If we do not make the NCAA this year with say a 17-13 or 18-12 record, do we accept a WNIT bid??? We all know that in the past CVS has not wanted to do this. The one time (2014) that we did accept the bid we went all the way. What do you think about this year?
I think there are a lot of Big 10 bubble teams so sorting out Minny, Nebby, Iowa, Purdue, Indiana and RU could prove tough. We know MD, MSU, OSU are going but beyond that its pretty muddled. Iowa has dropped off signficantly and all of a sudden Indiana has to be considered. Northwestern probably played themselves out but still has a shot. Michigan, Ilinois, PSU, Wisky would appear to have no shot.
RU is still light on the top 50 rpi wins, I know its not bad on the top 100. I really want to win the next 5...on paper they could, Minny game is huge but the distraction with CVS mothers death is going to be tough to overcome. Michigan State...must must must get that big quality win.
According to WBB State, right now it's 1 RPI top 25 win (Green Bay), no other RPI top 50 wins and call it 6 RPI top 100 wins in total. I may be wrong (I looked at it then had to restart my browser, so I'm doing this from memory, but I think RU is undefeated against RPI 51+ teams (and only has one game against an RPI 200+ team). Also, the SOS is 8, which is, to say the least, pretty good, but SOS does not get you into the NCAAs.
Also, to get to 6-2 or even 5-3, RU would have to beat at least a couple of the teams on any B1G bubble, and that likely would help put RU into the NCAA field.
Also, to get to 6-2 or even 5-3, RU would have to beat at least a couple of the teams on any B1G bubble, and that likely would help put RU into the NCAA field.
I understand the RPI is one of the stats used by the NCAA in selecting teams.My concern is that Rutgers inability to win on the road could be a counter balancing stat which would put Rutgers on the bubble for NCAA selection.Losing to Minnesota tonight didn't help Rutgers cause especially after defeating them at home.
As I think a lot of people know, I've been tracking who gets in and who doesn't for quite a long time. I certainly agree that the committee does not treat RPI as the be-all and end-all. At the same time, RPI is a decent proxy for a lot of what does go into the decisions, and that's a very important factor in my analysis. While it's certainly possible that a major conference team with an RPI in the top 35 and a winning conference record won't get a bid, it basically hasn't happened since 2000 (exactly once, to be precise). In fact, most years, the first major conference team out has an RPI in the 40s.
The BiG point differential road versus home for RU is by way way far the worst in league. (Available at Massey ratings website- not in its own table you have to look at every team and do the math.) Regardless of why, this must be overcome at Penn State and Illinois and maybe even at Purdue.
LSU got an at large bid with a 17-13 (10-6 SEC) record last season Arkansas the same with the same W-L record but 6-10 SEC.
So that gives me hope RU has a chance and it’s not time to give up on getting a bid.
But I feel the 4-7 conference record ( so far) is a major drawback and the Women can't afford to lose more than 2 more games to have a realistic chance of going Dancing .
That said: I have every expectation of seeing the RU Women's Basketball team being handed their dance card for the NCAA Tourney
So that gives me hope RU has a chance and it’s not time to give up on getting a bid.
But I feel the 4-7 conference record ( so far) is a major drawback and the Women can't afford to lose more than 2 more games to have a realistic chance of going Dancing .
That said: I have every expectation of seeing the RU Women's Basketball team being handed their dance card for the NCAA Tourney
RU has no road wins. They'll finish with a losing conference record and under 20 wins. I expect an invitation to the NIT which will be declined. Might even see CVS retire. Really thought with 4 seniors and a junior that the team would be top 3-4 in conference. Not in the bottom 6.
We need a strong strong tournament showing. I'm thinking runner up 2nd place But u never know what will happen., .
A win vs. Northwestern on Wednesday would be huge, since it would mean that we only have to win 1 of the remaining 5 games in order to avoid playing on the first day of the B1G tourney (not that we should be celebrating that but it's still important somewhat). Just have to keep playing good ball.
the key games are Michigan State and Purdue. At this point I expect to beat Northwestern and Illinois. If RU cant beat those schools then it does not deserve a bid. Michigan State at home needs to be a win, no question.Team has to step up and earn it. Purdue is not a must win but RU can win all 4 of these games they are dancing with a 10-8 league mark and 19-11 record. I am assuming a Maryland loss
10-8, 19-11 is a definite bid, even with a first round loss in the B1G tourney.
Still a chance but on life support ... Next 5 games looks like 2-2 with a toss up with Purdue on the road ... Looks like 2-3 puts us at 17-13 (8-10) ... 2-1 in tourney puts us 19-14 (8-10) ... Maybe we steal a game and go 20-13 ... Tough position we shouldn't be in, but the girls will give it their all.
Based on what the committee has done before, a 19-win major conference team has a very good chance of making the tournament, and an 18-win team has a pretty good chance as well. The team now has 1 RPI top 25 win and 8 RPI top 100 wins, including some wins over teams I expect to make the tourney, so things could be worse.
Of course, my preference is for them to win the rest of the regular season and make it easy.
That works for me, too. How about not losing any more games through the end of the tourney? Then we both get what we want. :sunglasses:
this basically has to make the Big 10 finals...which is going to require beating OSU or Maryland in the quarters...good luck
Our B1G tournament will be a game against one of the 7-10th place finishers and then either Ohio St or Maryland. Sounds like 1-1 may be our best hope for the tourney.
Might be hard to get a bid at 19-13 but there’s still hope !
Last year P-5 schools like: Iowa St. (18-12) , LSU (17-13) ,Arkansas (17-13), Miami (19-12) along with other schools got an invite to the Dance with records similar to what RU would have if they won 2 out of the 3 regular season games that are left and went 1-1 in the Big Ten’s Tourney.
So I say until this season plays out:
Last year P-5 schools like: Iowa St. (18-12) , LSU (17-13) ,Arkansas (17-13), Miami (19-12) along with other schools got an invite to the Dance with records similar to what RU would have if they won 2 out of the 3 regular season games that are left and went 1-1 in the Big Ten’s Tourney.
So I say until this season plays out:
The only reason the door is open is because of the conference tournament. They need to win one more and must reach the final game minimum.
RU was last team out in Creme's bracketology before the MSU game so the loss was a huge missed opportunity and now they fall further back in the pecking order
After Thursday and Sunday's losses, the outlook isn't good. We avoided playing in the B1G Tournament first day by virtue of our win over PSU. But it looks like we will likely wind up in 10th place and play the 7th seed. That looks to be either Nebraska Purdue or Michigan. All tough match ups. Should we get by that first game we get the #2 seed, Maryland.
The two remaining games are Purdue and Michigan, RU can he;lp their B1G tourney chances by winning those match-ups and hopefully miss the first day.
Nebraska just lost to Purdue and has Indiana and Northwestern to play
Besides Rutgers, Michigan has Northwestern to play to finish out their season
Purdue faces Wisconsin after their RU game to end their season.
Big Ten Women's Basketball Statistics
http://www.bigten.org/library/stats/wbb-confsked.html