Darkhorse Derby 2026

[Wrestleknownothing]

This is something I did for the last two tournaments on Intermat that a lot of people found interesting. It creates an incentive to think about and watch the guys who generally do not wind up on the podium. It acknowledges that their struggle is every bit as real even if their recognition generally is not.

• The idea is that everyone picks 1 wrestler per weight (10 total wrestlers) who is seeded in the 17 - 33 range. No wrestlers seeded 1 - 16 are eligible.

We will use regular tournament scoring to determine who has the strongest lineup of darkhorses at the conclusion of the tournament.

• If you would like to make my life more easy in your post use the following format for your entry:

Weight - Seed - Wrestler - School

For example, if you were interested in all #17 seeds it would look like this:

125 – 17 - Jett Strickenberger – WVU
133 – 17 - TK Davis – GW
141 – 17 - Caedyn Ricciardi – NAVY
149 – 17 - Lucas Kapusta – LH
157 – 17 - Luke Mechler – WIS
165 – 17 - Braeden Scoles – ILL
174 – 17 - Jared Simma – UNI
184 – 17 - Ian Bush – WVU
197 – 17 - Dillon Bechtold – BUCK
285 – 17 - Vincent Mueller - COL

One caveat. I will not be around as much this year during the tournament as I was in past years due to my own stupidity, so my scoring updates will be a little less frequent.

I will be posting this on all four on3 boards.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

For anyone looking for a study aid here are the seeds listed sequentially rather than in a bracket:

2026 NCAA Wrestling Seeds

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Someone asked on HR so I will share here too.

AA's by seed, by year, #17 - #33


Note: no #24, #29, #30, #31, or #32 has AAed.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Time for my picks:

125 - 26 - Cooper Flynn - CHAT
133 -17 - T.K. Davis - GW
141 - 20 - Julian Tagg - SDSU
149 - 19 - Brock Herman - UALR
157 - 21 - Charlie Millard - MINN
165 - 18 - Noah Mulvaney - BUCK
174 - 25 -Sergio Desiante - VT
184 - 17 - Ian Bush - WVU
197 - 18 - Andrew Reall - BRWN
285 - 26 - Luke Luffman - ILL

Though I am having second thoughts about not having any Columbia wrestlers in the lineup.

Edit: I heard Braeden Scoles is hurt, but is going to attempt to wrestle regardless. So I changed that .

 

[PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist]

I would have taken a shot at this, but it turned into more work and time than I can afford. I don't know enough about the wrestlers at 17 and lower seeds to make an informed guess.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I would have taken a shot at this, but it turned into more work and time than I can afford. I don't know enough about the wrestlers at 17 and lower seeds to make an informed guess.

you could always vote a straight ticket (plus two). Rutgers has 8 of the 10 weights covered.

 

[Bobbynieds]

i am gonna wing it.......probably tomorrow....toomuch work tonight

 

[Kiddagger311]

you could always vote a straight ticket (plus two). Rutgers has 8 of the 10 weights covered.

I was thinking same thing lol but what I want to happen and what I think will happen often are diff.. lol.

 

[Kiddagger311]

125 – 17 - Jett Strickenberger – WVU
133 - 21 - Sean Spidle - NW
141 - 21 - Tyler Wells - OKLA
149- 20- Chance Lamer- NEB
157- 21 - Charlie Millard- MINN
165- 20- Ty Whalen- PRIN
174- 21 - Lenny Pinto- RUT
184- 22 - Zach Ryder-OKST
197- 27 - Gabe Arnold- IOWA
285-20- Dayton Pitzer- PITT

Edit: I heard Braeden Scoles is hurt, but is going to attempt to wrestle regardless. So I changed that .

 

[Anon1751330127]

125 - 18 - Spencer Moore - Ill
133 - 18 - Gage Walker - MZ
141 - 20 - Julian Tagg - SDSU
149 - 21 - Gabe Willochell - WYO
157 - 22 - Colton Washleskj - UVA
165 - 17 - Braden Scoles - Ill
174 - 23 - Luca Augustine - Pitt
184 - 17 - Ian Bush - WVU
197 - 20 - Wyatt Ingham - WIS
285 - 18 - Christian Carroll - WYO

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

We are a little over 24 hours out from the first whistle.

Still time to enter.

What were you planning on doing at work today anyway? Work? Come on.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

125 - 18 - Spencer Moore - Ill
133 - 18 - Gage Walker - MZ
141 - 20 - Julian Tagg - SDSU
149 - 21 - Gabe Willochell - WYO
157 - 22 - Colton Washleskj - UVA
165 - 17 - Braden Scoles - Ill
174 - 23 - Luca Augustine - Pitt
184 - 17 - Ian Bush - WVU
197 - 20 - Wyatt Ingham - WIS
285 - 18 - Christian Carroll - WYO

at 133 Walker is the 19 seed, Gunner Andrick is the 18 seed. Which one would you like?

 

[Anon1751330127]

at 133 Walker is the 19 seed, Gunner Andrick is the 18 seed. Which one would you like?

Walker please.

 

[Leonard23]

Eh, why not go Rutgers heavy.

125 - 17 - Jett Strickenberger - WVU
133 -26 - Dylan Shawver - RUT
141 - 17 - Caedyn Ricciardi - NAVY
149 - 17 - Lucas Kapusta - LH
157 - 21 - Charlie Millard - MINN
165 - 22 - Matthew Olguin - ORST
174 - 21 - Lenny Pinto - RUT
184 - 22 - Zach Ryder - OKST
197 - 27 - Gabe Arnold - IOW
285 - 27 - Hunter Catka - RUT

 

[Kiddagger311]

Eh, why not go Rutgers heavy.

125 - 17 - Jett Strickenberger - WVU
133 -26 - Dylan Shawver - RUT
141 - 17 - Caedyn Ricciardi - NAVY
149 - 17 - Lucas Kapusta - LH
157 - 21 - Charlie Millard - MINN
165 - 22 - Matthew Olguin - ORST
174 - 21 - Lenny Pinto - RUT
184 - 22 - Zach Ryder - OKST
197 - 27 - Gabe Arnold - IOW
285 - 27 - Hunter Catka - RUT

Could have technically gone all 5 Rutgers but I just went w who I thought had more upside . Was thinking bout going w Shawver and Catka too but their paths look really tough.. We already have 5 of the same entrees I noticed lol.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Entries are beginning to slow down a bit so I thought I would pause and share a statistical update.

So far we have a total of 35 competitors duking it out to be the king of prognosticators. BWI leads the way with 20 entrants, followed by HR with 10, 34AC with 3 and TKR with 2.

Be Not Afraid
The boldest among us is @PUR158. He is not afraid to scan down the seeds to look for the value play. With an average seed among his ten wrestlers of 23.1, he is a full 4.3 slots behind the most conservative swami @parchy who comes in at an average seed of 18.8.



Diversification is Key
No two users picked the same lineup. So hopefully there will be no tie to break as I had not thought about that. But if there is I think I will go with lowest seeded wrestler to score points.

Who Ya Got?
Among the 170 eligible wrestlers seeded #17-#33, you saw fit to bless 79 of them with your statement of confidence. But this is a popularity contest after all, and the most popular is Wyoming's Christian Carroll, favored by 22 of you. Minnesota's Charlie Millard is not far behind with 19 fanboys/girls on these forums.

There were 17 wrestlers who garnered a single vote of confidence. PUR158 and @sdvike chose three of these each. Rugged individualists, those two.



Can't We All Just Get Along?
By weight, 285 was where we agreed the most as only 4 of the 17 wrestlers garnered support.

At the opposite end of the scale is 133. There is zero consensus in the top half of those seeds, so why should there any consensus in the bottom half?



We Get Nowhere Without the Team
Of the 70 teams entered in the tournament, 47 are proud to claim entrants in the 2026 Dark Horse Derby. I fully expect this to serve as the motivation for many of these wrestlers to pull off upsets and then acknowledge their forum supporters by username in their post match interviews.



Stupid Is As Stupid Does
Normally I would provide updates after each of the six sessions. But I did something dumb this year and agreed to speak at a conference without looking at the calendar first. So my plan is to do a single update for both Thursday sessions followed by individual updates per session thereafter. Wish me luck.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Eh, why not go Rutgers heavy.

125 - 17 - Jett Strickenberger - WVU
133 -26 - Dylan Shawver - RUT
141 - 17 - Caedyn Ricciardi - NAVY
149 - 17 - Lucas Kapusta - LH
157 - 21 - Charlie Millard - MINN
165 - 22 - Matthew Olguin - ORST
174 - 21 - Lenny Pinto - RUT
184 - 22 - Zach Ryder - OKST
197 - 27 - Gabe Arnold - IOW
285 - 27 - Hunter Catka - RUT

That's the spirit.

 

[Kiddagger311]

Entries are beginning to slow down a bit so I thought I would pause and share a statistical update.

So far we have a total of 35 competitors duking it out to be the king of prognosticators. BWI leads the way with 20 entrants, followed by HR with 10, 34AC with 3 and TKR with 2.

Be Not Afraid
The boldest among us is @PUR158. He is not afraid to scan down the seeds to look for the value play. With an average seed among his ten wrestlers of 23.1, he is a full 4.3 slots behind the most conservative swami @parchy who comes in at an average seed of 18.8.



Diversification is Key
No two users picked the same lineup. So hopefully there will be no tie to break as I had not thought about that. But if there is I think I will go with lowest seeded wrestler to score points.

Who Ya Got?
Among the 170 eligible wrestlers seeded #17-#33, you saw fit to bless 79 of them with your statement of confidence. But this is a popularity contest after all, and the most popular is Wyoming's Christian Carroll, favored by 22 of you. Minnesota's Charlie Millard is not far behind with 19 fanboys/girls on these forums.

There were 17 wrestlers who garnered a single vote of confidence. PUR158 and @sdvike chose three of these each. Rugged individualists, those two.



Can't We All Just Get Along?
By weight, 285 was where we agreed the most as only 4 of the 17 wrestlers garnered support.

At the opposite end of the scale is 133. There is zero consensus in the top half of those seeds, so why should there any consensus in the bottom half?



We Get Nowhere Without the Team
Of the 70 teams entered in the tournament, 47 are proud to claim entrants in the 2026 Dark Horse Derby. I fully expect this to serve as the motivation for many of these wrestlers to pull off upsets and then acknowledge their forum supporters by username in their post match interviews.



Stupid Is As Stupid Does
Normally I would provide updates after each of the six sessions. But I did something dumb this year and agreed to speak at a conference without looking at the calendar first. So my plan is to do a single update for both Thursday sessions followed by individual updates per session thereafter. Wish me luck.

Is my 165 entered as Scoles or changed to Whalen?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Is my 165 entered as Scoles or changed to Whalen?

changed to Whalen

 

[Leonard23]

Could have technically gone all 5 Rutgers but I just went w who I thought had more upside . Was thinking bout going w Shawver and Catka too but their paths look really tough.. We already have 5 of the same entrees I noticed lol.

I thought about going all Rutgers to hedge my bets that 1 will do it.

 

[SCNJ]

125 - 23 Rivera
133 - 26 Shawver
141 - 17 Ricciardi
149 - 20 Lamer
157 - 21 Millard
165 - 20 Whalen
174 - 21 Pinto
184 - 19 McGill
197 - 27 Arnold
285 - 18 Carroll

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

We closed on Thursday morning with 47 total entries - 46 of those are real and 1 is a what if. Given the struggles @SlipperyPete had nailing down his lineup I decided to test the grade school teacher warning that you should stick with your first answer, so I kept his original lineup and his revised lineup. We will see if Mrs. Crabapple was right.

Pole Position
@johnstownsteel races out to the early lead by getting points from 9 of his 10 dark horses. What did he know and when did he know it?

But the race is still too close to call. With the likes of @parchy, and @Crablegs1 just a half point behind, and another 4 entrants within 2 points it is still anyone's game.



Coach of the Year
Tom Ryan's people reached out to me this morning from the team bus. They said that after seeing @topc22blue's coaching performance in the first two rounds of the all important 2026 DHD - ALL 10 Dark Horses basking in the light - the coach would not feel right keeping the B1G COTY trophy. I assume the topc stands for Top Coach?

Fun Facts

• No one lost more than half of their wrestlers in the first two rounds. Good work everyone.
• I kinda suck at this.
• ASU's Colton Hawks is only the second #29 seed to make the quarterfinals. He ties Caleb Fish who made the quarters as a #29 seed at 165 in 2023. Fish did not make the semis - falling 4-10 to #5 Quincy Monday. Hawks will face similar long odds when he faces #5 Joey Novak who is coming off a pair of pinfalls.
• 165 has the most Dark Horse Heroes still alive. At this stage if everything goes chalk the #25 - #33 would be eliminated. But at 165 6 of them are still alive and kicking.
• 174 is at the other end of the spectrum with 8 of the bottom 9 seeds already done for the weekend.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Session 3 was some fun. As always there was a lot of Dark Horse on Dark Horse crime.

Achieving Simplification
Like any good mystery we are getting to the part where we achieve simplification. After starting with 170 Dark Horse candidates all but 14 have been taken to the glue factory.

With only 12 wrestlers alive at any weight each of our heroes are defying the odds at this point of the tournament.

And it is the big boys leading the way, with 285 and 197 having the most still alive.



Heading Into The Home Stretch
As our horses make the turn, it is Chance Lamer leading the pack for home. With 10 points scored he is running away from Dayton Pitzer in second place.



The Standings
With today's action there has been a big shakeup in the standings.

@Kiddagger311 takes over the lead from @johnstownsteel who fell all the way to a tie for 16th place. Ha, that guy must not know much. Oh, wait.... there is some jabroni who goes by @Wrestleknownothing. That dude is really putting the nothing in knowledge.

The Kid should not get too comfortable though. @Crablegs1 and @parchy maintain the next two spots again. And with 6 wrestlers still alive crabbie is looking dangerous.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

It is a three man race.



And a three horse race.



With 1.5 points separating the top 3 it comes down to which horses are still alive. To keep this interesting no wrestler who is still wrestling is on all three remaining contending teams.

There is a combination of outcomes that will put @topc22blue on top, a different combination that will put @Rock-man on top, and a third combination that will see @Kiddagger311 leap frog them both for the win. As the English say, it is all to play for.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

2026 FINAL DARK HORSE DERBY STANDINGS

With an eye for talent like no other and the ability to put together a complete lineup that is rivaled by few, all hail @topc22blue our 2026 Dark Horse Derby Champion. Like PSU he has locked up the title before the finals even start.

Topc, I highly recommend you put this prestigious title at the top of your resume when interviewing for a top recruiting coordinator position. After all with nothing but #17 - #33 seeded wrestlers it looks like you will finish in the top 10 team scores.

To put this in context, last year's winner had 34.5 points. I do not recall the total from the prior, but it was less than that.

Don't anyone bother reading from the bottom up.



At the individual wrestler level anyone who took a chance on lamer was rewarded. From a #20 seed to a 4th place finish aint too shabby.



For those of you who were tempted to take all #17 seeds.....not a great idea.



Finally, if you picked the highest scoring wrestler at each weight your final score would have been 74.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Final Board Team Standings (based on average score per username)

Board	Total Score	Usernames	Average Score
34 and counting	179.5	5	35.9
TKR	133	4	33.3
HR	326	11	29.6
BWI	627.5	26	24.1

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Thank you to everyone who played our game. See you next year when I expect a perfect score from everyone.

 

[Kiddagger311]

Thank you to everyone who played our game. See you next year when I expect a perfect score from everyone.

Thx for running it, wish there was a prize pool or something tho lol