Covid PSA for Memphis-area folks

[ckDOG]

35% chance someone is positive for a group of 10. Basically, when you go to the grocery store, you got virus in the air.

https://dailymemphian.com/section/metro/article/15338/shelby-county-coronavirus-cases-grow-by-306

Hospitalizations are trending very poorly as well.

View attachment 16777

I don't want a full shutdown again. Nobody does. I also want a hospital bed for myself or family should any of us get ill.

Use your 17ing brain, act right, and

View attachment 16778

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Am I reading the chart correctly

Deaths per day has been about the same, a little less than 2, since the end of March? That seems odd.
ETA: the chart in the linked article

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

So stay outta Memphis? Waaay ahead of ya.

 

[Bobby Ricigliano]

I take that 35% number to mean that there will be a COVID-positive person at roughly 1 out of 3 events with greater than 10 people...not 3.5 positive people in a gathering of 10.

 

[ckDOG]

I'm sorry that Memphis hurt your feelings.

Nm

 

[Drebin]

Since Memphis has had a mask mandate for several weeks now, surely those numbers are fake news, right?

 

[Bcash2]

Yes.

35% chance someone is positive for a group of 10

 

[ckDOG]

I take that 35% number to mean that there will be a COVID-positive person at roughly 1 out of 3 events with greater than 10 people...not 3.5 positive people in a gathering of 10.

Yeah that's what 35% chance that someone is positive means. Pretty easy to be around a group of 10 or more indoors. As it applies to my life, there's probably 50-100 folks in the grocery store when I go. So, pretty solid chances a few folks are breathing out virus. Cool - I do a good job minding my distance. Many folks don't. Be smart and safe. Or be shut down.

 

[Seinfeld]

I grew up a Memphian, but I laughed

 

[dorndawg]

It went into effect June 25.

 

[ckDOG]

Shelby county stats

Since Memphis has had a mask mandate for several weeks now, surely those numbers are fake news, right?

Mandates applied to Shelby county last Friday I believe. Since then I've been to Costco, Doc office, and liquor store 2x. Costco had good masking wearing bc of store policy (same before county mandate). Doc office and liquor store, vast little compliance (not even employees). Mandates work some, but as we've seen in practice, the masses don't react until they think they could get ill. We will change behavior when forced via closures or a bunch of people start dying. God bless America.

Also, similar odds in Desoto County and Crittenden County. I'm not sure either have had mandates but I suspect no. You can look it up.

 

[JML105]

35% chance someone is positive for a group of 10.

This makes no logical sense. I mean if the positive test rate is only 15% (306 new cases from 2043 tests), then how could there be a 10% higher chance that someone is positive from a random group of 10 people?

 

[RocketDawg]

Mandates applied to Shelby county last Friday I believe. Since then I've been to Costco, Doc office, and liquor store 2x. Costco had good masking wearing bc of store policy (same before county mandate). Doc office and liquor store, vast little compliance (not even employees). Mandates work some, but as we've seen in practice, the masses don't react until they think they could get ill. We will change behavior when forced via closures or a bunch of people start dying. God bless America.

Also, similar odds in Desoto County and Crittenden County. I'm not sure either have had mandates but I suspect no. You can look it up.

Interesting, and really not understandable, that a doctor's office would not comply. I've been to several doctors' offices (dentist, regular doc, opthalmologist) and all of them had very strict cleanliness and isolation requirements.

 

[ckDOG]

You're thinking backwards.

This makes no logical sense. I mean if the positive test rate is only 15% (306 new cases from 2043 tests), then how could there be a 10% higher chance that someone is positive from a random group of 10 people?

Applying the 15% as a representation of all would mean almost 2 people of every group of 10 was infected. Meaning the 35% really should be 100%.

You can't use 15% bc testing is skewed to people who think they are sick. It's not random.

Not a stats genius, but I think that 35% chance per 10 means they think the positivity rate over the entire population in Shelby County is 3.5%. Someone nerdier then me explain that.

 

[ckDOG]

Let me rephrase that. It was a chiro office.

Interesting, and really not understandable, that a doctor's office would not comply. I've been to several doctors' offices (dentist, regular doc, opthalmologist) and all of them had very strict cleanliness and isolation requirements.

Didn't want to open up that bag of worms. But ah well.

 

[Drebin]

Mandates applied to Shelby county last Friday I believe. Since then I've been to Costco, Doc office, and liquor store 2x. Costco had good masking wearing bc of store policy (same before county mandate). Doc office and liquor store, vast little compliance (not even employees). Mandates work some, but as we've seen in practice, the masses don't react until they think they could get ill. We will change behavior when forced via closures or a bunch of people start dying. God bless America.

Also, similar odds in Desoto County and Crittenden County. I'm not sure either have had mandates but I suspect no. You can look it up.

The mandate has been in place longer than that, at least for the city limits. I'm in Memphis almost every day and pretty much everyone is wearing a mask. Half of the idiots on the road are wearing masks in their cars. Pretty much all retail places require them for entry into their stores. So, understanding incubation periods for covid and how long folks have been wearing masks in Memphis, I say one of two things are true here: these numbers are complete BS, or this proves that masks are less effective than you think. I'd say it's probably a little bit of both of those things.

 

[paindonthurt_]

Yeah I don’t think it means 3.5 out of 10 have it.

 

[paindonthurt_]

I would interpret it that way.
35% 1 person has it in group of 10
100% 1 person has it in group of 30
In group of 100, 3.5 people have it.

60% of the time it works every time.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

Didn't want to open up that bag of worms. But ah well.

Those 17ing quacks. As stupid as we amateur medical experts on SPS may be at times, we are still 100 times more qualified in medicine than a Chiropractor. My bet is all of the Chiropractors have banded together to try and get the spread of Covid19 to overwhelm the hospital system because they are all jealous of real doctors. Also, it's a fact that 9 out of 10 Chiropractors are Marxist.*

 

[Seinfeld]

Yep, like Bobby mentioned earlier in the thread, I think it’s a 35% chance that one person has it from a group of 10. In other words, if you have ten groups of 10, someone has Covid19 in 3.5 of those groups. Since there are 100 total people involved, that equates to your 3.5% chance

At least, that’s the way I read it, but I’ll admit that it was a confusing way to present numbers

 

[ckDOG]

The mandate has been in place longer than that, at least for the city limits. I'm in Memphis almost every day and pretty much everyone is wearing a mask. Half of the idiots on the road are wearing masks in their cars. Pretty much all retail places require them for entry into their stores. So, understanding incubation periods for covid and how long folks have been wearing masks in Memphis, I say one of two things are true here: these numbers are complete BS, or this proves that masks are less effective than you think. I'd say it's probably a little bit of both of those things.

Shelby County in place Jul 3 6pm

https://www.commercialappeal.com/st...nty-now-require-people-wear-masks/5371732002/

Where are you going in Memphis? I feel it varies on business type and rural vs urban.

 

[ckDOG]

Yeah it's a wonky wording

Yep, like Bobby mentioned earlier in the thread, I think it’s a 35% chance that one person has it from a group of 10. In other words, if you have ten groups of 10, someone has Covid19 in 3.5 of those groups. Since there are 100 total people involved, that equates to your 3.5% chance

At least, that’s the way I read it, but I’ll admit that it was a confusing way to present numbers

I think it's just worded that way to get your attention in a practical situation. If you say "odds of contracting are 3.5%", then your conclusion is tiny risk, carry on. If you present it as the risk that someone in a group of 10 has it, then it has a more real impact on you since being around 10 folks or more is very routine. Make your realize that where there's people, there's virus. Act accordingly.

 

[JML105]

Applying the 15% as a representation of all would mean almost 2 people of every group of 10 was infected. Meaning the 35% really should be 100%.

You can't use 15% bc testing is skewed to people who think they are sick. It's not random.

Not a stats genius, but I think that 35% chance per 10 means they think the positivity rate over the entire population in Shelby County is 3.5%. Someone nerdier then me explain that.

That makes a little more sense. However, if you look at all of the data from Shelby Co since March, there have been 1,339 pos. cases per 100k population (1.3%) and the positive case rate has actually been pretty stable according to the graph in the Memphian link you cited with ~6-~9% fluctuation since April. So more realistically, according to the CDC data, 13 out of 1000 people potentially has (or has had) the virus in Shelby Co. Which, using the 10 people example, would be 13% chance that someone in a group of ten would have the virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/county-map.html?state=TN

 

[Drebin]

Shelby County in place Jul 3 6pm

https://www.commercialappeal.com/st...nty-now-require-people-wear-masks/5371732002/

Where are you going in Memphis? I feel it varies on business type and rural vs urban.

I have an office in east memphis and I drive up and down the poplar corridor.

 

[Drebin]

It went into effect June 25.

The ordinance passed on June 16. Strickland didn't sign it until the 25th, but it was all over the news for nine days prior. Point being: a lot of people in Memphis have been wearing masks for several weeks.

 

[RocketDawg]

Yeah, I guess that matters, but you'd still think they'd be taking all the precautions.

 

[ckDOG]

One would think

Yeah, I guess that matters, but you'd still think they'd be taking all the precautions.

I go for lower back pain. Clearly, I don't have a big problem with chiros bc I wouldn't be going to one otherwise. However, their views on the immune system, cancer prevention, and all that other pseudo science quack stuff they push is weird. They probably just think they are invincible to a virus.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

My wife has had some medical issues for the last month so she’s seen several doctors and specialists and she’s also had to take her mother to several doctors after a car accident and I can tell you the doctors offices in Desoto County taking this seriously. There’s shielding everywhere, your temp is taken at the door, everyone must wear a mask and there’s distancing everywhere inside.

 

[Bobby Ricigliano]

My point is that it doesn't mean you're just walking through a cloud of coronavirus at the grocery store. That analysis doesn't mean 35% of the people will be infected for a group of 10. In fact, looking at the assessment tool, it's 99% for an event size of 100 people in Shelby County.

 

[MrKotter]

That makes a little more sense. However, if you look at all of the data from Shelby Co since March, there have been 1,339 pos. cases per 100k population (1.3%) and the positive case rate has actually been pretty stable according to the graph in the Memphian link you cited with ~6-~9% fluctuation since April. So more realistically, according to the CDC data, 13 out of 1000 people potentially has (or has had) the virus in Shelby Co. Which, using the 10 people example, would be 13% chance that someone in a group of ten would have the virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/county-map.html?state=TN

Those numbers aren't fear mongering enough for the clowns here. They can't justify closing everything and hiding in a tub of sanitizer for months with those numbers.

 

[ckDOG]

Hey guy 17 you

Those numbers aren't fear mongering enough for the clowns here. They can't justify closing everything and hiding in a tub of sanitizer for months with those numbers.

There's a big difference between shutting down and hiding and wanting the general public to exercise a little common sense and restraint to avoid, had you read my original post, shutting down again or maxing out the health care resources. Some of us don't want the head in sand morons like yourself drag us down with the rest of you.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

+1

 

[OurPrideAndJoySnots]

The Duggars are 17'd

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Homicides are up 20% thru June in Memphis this year.... if you get shot, while being positive for the Carona and die.... does it count for both Carona Deaths and Homicides or just Carona?

 

[saltslugs]

Applying the 15% as a representation of all would mean almost 2 people of every group of 10 was infected. Meaning the 35% really should be 100%.

You can't use 15% bc testing is skewed to people who think they are sick. It's not random.

Not a stats genius, but I think that 35% chance per 10 means they think the positivity rate over the entire population in Shelby County is 3.5%. Someone nerdier then me explain that.

If 1 out of 10 people in Memphis has Covid, then the math would work this way... the probability of any individual not having covid is 0.9. To determine the probability of no one having covid out of a group of 10, you would need to take 0.9 and raise it to the tenth power, which would give you about 35%. This assumes that all people are randomly distributed, people with covid are at the supermarket as frequently as everyone else, etc.

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

[h=2]I'm sorry that Memphis hurt your feelings.[/h]

No actually it’s due to statistics showing a 1 in 12 chance of being a victim of a violent crime or property crime in Memphis. How many Random interstate shootings has there been in 19 and 20?

And if you knew half of the corruption in Memphis city hall, your feelings would be hurt. I’ve seen it first hand in dealing with a client.