Using a modification of the Morey and Hollinger adaptations of Pythagorean expectation, I predict from 23-7 to 25-5 record after B1G play. RU is currently 12-2, making the conference record from 11-5 to 13-3. RU underperformed in conference play by a couple of wins the two previous times I made these calculations. However, the mean point total of opposing teams so far is 55, and I am taking that as a talisman. That and the fact that Iowa is the last home game and potentially the 1,000th career win for Coach Stringer make me go with 12-4. Predicted losses: at Penn State, at Ohio State, at Maryland, and either Michigan or Maryland at the RAC (but not both).
Conference Play Prediction
- Thread starter ea_1
- Start date
I think you really have to see how they perform against a really tough opponent. Can their lockdown defense really work against teams with better shooters? I try to avoid the trap of seeing the OOC games as a true measure.
But, I do think they are going to have a lot of influence on who comes out on top in the league.
But, I do think they are going to have a lot of influence on who comes out on top in the league.
WSU loss = loss to RPI 58 team, day 3 of early-season 3-day tourney for a team with many new players in the rotation.
I think that our recent dominating wins are a better indication of what this team can and will be.
For what it's worth (not much), after yesterday's games Real Time RPI now predicts an 8-8 conference season and 20 wins overall. The Northwestern game flipped from a loss to a win. If they go 8-8 and win a conference tourney game, I'd say they're dancing again.
Way too long as a reply, but I copied most of what follows from another thread. It is odd that RealTimeRPI and Massey have similar predictions for conference but are so different in the ratings. The Massey season projection has been stable for weeks, but if you use their/his/her game-by-game projections, RU would be 10-5-1 (pretend ties can happen) for the conference season.
Massey
https://www.masseyratings.com/cbw/ncaa-d1/ratings
Rutgers #25, SOS 32 (to date), SSF 31 (includes future opponents), projected season 21-9. Off #100, Def #12
Sagarin
http://www.rpiratings.com/womrate.php
Rutgers #19 SOS 36 and #10 weighted ranking for recent play (a trend indicator)
RealTime
http://realtimerpi.com/college_Women_basketball_rpi.html
Rutgers #8 SOS 13
http://realtimerpi.com/ncaab/college_Women_basketball_power_rankings.html
Rutgers #84 SOS 9
I have to wonder if a data-entry error occurred in the RealTime power rankings. How on earth can a 12-2 team with a top-10 schedule strength be ranked 84?
My final thought about these rankings and ratings is that I have believed since early in the season if RU could break into the top 100 in offense and stay there, the team would be fine (because the defense is so good). This is the first week RU made the top 100 in the Massey ratings this season. I suspect that is because the terrible mismatches of guaranteed games have lessened as schedules have tightened. Not sure if BeKnighted has the ranked teams' scores in a spreadsheet--I would be interested in seeing the median and mean margins of victory as the weeks progressed during OOC play.
The B1G opener against Purdue is a huge game for RU + the women need to start off conference play on a positive note. Historically, we haven't done all that well against Purdue so this is the perfect opportunity at home to start reversing that story.
Break News!!!
My BOLD prediction... Rutgers will win the regular season and conference tournament titles for the Big 10. Tyler Scaife will be Big Ten Player of the Year. C. Vivian Stringer will be the Big Ten Coach of the Year. We will likely lose 1 game if not go undefeated in the Big Ten during regular season play (1 lose could be to Ohio State). They will finish regular season play at 27-3 or 28-2
This is the most well rounded and cohesive team C. Viv has had since her arrival, they can defend well, they play together and they can score from many positions. There is no drama or people not liking one another among this group.
Also, we all know C. Viv's teams come back from Christmas break even better than they were prior to it due to practicing twice a day and former players come back to help in practice. This team is going to bring Rutgers out of the dark era (hopefully no injuries) and cause high school players and transfers to want to play at Rutgers. RU will have at least 28 or 29 wins before going into the big dance. So flying under the radar is good for now, there is no pressure on this team but just need to go out and play. Tyler is looking like her old self, such an offensive weapon unlike we have had since Epiphany Prince.
This is such a great time to be a Scarlet Knight, this is the team and we don't have many weaknesses i can see (other than the small forward position). They will only get better as the season goes on and will be ready for war when its time for the big dance... YESSSS!
Deep tournament run... Elite Eight & Final Four bound.
Just my opinion but I believe it going to happen
Go RU
My BOLD prediction... Rutgers will win the regular season and conference tournament titles for the Big 10. Tyler Scaife will be Big Ten Player of the Year. C. Vivian Stringer will be the Big Ten Coach of the Year. We will likely lose 1 game if not go undefeated in the Big Ten during regular season play (1 lose could be to Ohio State). They will finish regular season play at 27-3 or 28-2
This is the most well rounded and cohesive team C. Viv has had since her arrival, they can defend well, they play together and they can score from many positions. There is no drama or people not liking one another among this group.
Also, we all know C. Viv's teams come back from Christmas break even better than they were prior to it due to practicing twice a day and former players come back to help in practice. This team is going to bring Rutgers out of the dark era (hopefully no injuries) and cause high school players and transfers to want to play at Rutgers. RU will have at least 28 or 29 wins before going into the big dance. So flying under the radar is good for now, there is no pressure on this team but just need to go out and play. Tyler is looking like her old self, such an offensive weapon unlike we have had since Epiphany Prince.
This is such a great time to be a Scarlet Knight, this is the team and we don't have many weaknesses i can see (other than the small forward position). They will only get better as the season goes on and will be ready for war when its time for the big dance... YESSSS!
Deep tournament run... Elite Eight & Final Four bound.
Just my opinion but I believe it going to happen
Go RU
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Agree with your assessment. My biggest concern is that we have 12 days off between our last game (Houston) and the Purdue game. Hopefully we come back ready and don’t have too much rust to shake off.
my caution with this is that the Big 10 does not have a good perception in womens hoops. Didnt Michigan get snubbed last year despite having a solid resume and finish in the Big 10
I do think that BeK usually has the pulse of that sort of thing, but to your larger point - yes, the Big 10 does not have a very good perception. The sad performance in the ACC / Big 10 challenge is some indication of part of the issue. In a lot of cases, B1G teams recently haven't played very strong OOC schedules (they used to) and often haven't won the marquee games they do play. Then in conference play, there is a couple good teams and everyone else beats each other up.
It will be an interesting season in most of the conferences - Texas and Baylor fighting it out in the Big 12, some really good teams at the top of the SEC, the PAC where Stanford has been struggling, but a number of very good teams will contend, the ACC still looks like Notre Dame, Louisville and maybe Duke and of course the B1G.
I made a table of the conference rankings by Massey and Sagarin but am unable to upload the document. Too many items to type into reply, but comparing the means and medians of team rankings of the Power 5 conferences between the two systems is interesting. Here are the %s of P5 conference teams ranked in the top 50 for both rating systems:
MASSEY
ACC 60, B1G 50, B12 40, PAC 67, SEC 50
SAGARIN
ACC 53, B1G 50, B12 60, PAC 67, SEC 50.
And here are the mean and median rankings of each:
MASSEY
ACC 60.9, 40.0; B1G 65.4, 58.0; B12 61.3, 55.5; PAC 58.5, 35.0; SEC 54.8, 49.5
SAGARIN
ACC 58.0, 49.0; B1G 64.9, 59.5; B12 55.5, 38.0; PAC 56.6, 33.5; SEC 57.6, 48.5.
Where the two systems really differ is the rating of the mid-conference B12 teams.
What the means and medians say to me is that the B1G is fairly tightly bunched relative to the other conferences - the gap between the average and the median is smaller than any conference except the B12 in Massey, where it's very close, and is *much* smaller in most cases.
Throwing in the standard deviations to illustrate this point (first row = whole conference, second row = top half of conference),
MASSEY
ACC 57.2, B1G 47.2, B12 54.2, PAC 72.7, SEC 43.1
ACC 13.3, B1G 10.0, B12 17.7, PAC 8.0, SEC 13.9
SAGARIN
ACC 48.6, B1G 47.4, B12 53.7, PAC 61.8, SEC 44.0
ACC 14.7, B1G 11.8, B12 8.0, PAC 9.5, SEC 15.5.
Using something akin to fuzzy labels with GREAT meaning #1 through #10, VERY GOOD meaning 11-25, GOOD 26-50, STRONG 51-100, OKAY 101-150, POOR 151-225, and BAD 226+, by both systems the B1G has no GREAT team and no BAD team. The lowest ranked B1G team is OKAY in Massey and POOR in Sagarin, and it is a pretty big outlier. In both systems, 11 of 14 B1G teams are in the top 100. That is a tough conference.