Carino on Fouls: "Staggering"

[SirScarlet]

vindication!

I can already see the excuses being drafted

btw...the use of the word staggering, is his, not mine.

of course, those of us watching the games, knew this already, but people love to say that things "just even out"...LOL

 

[RickB113]

Obvious bias that has cost us two wins, maybe three.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

All 14 teams are not equal! Our 3s are not offensive threats. Our 2 guard doesn't penetrate and is a perimter shooter. We don't make a concerted effort to get the ball inside. Corey is the only one that is drawing fouls.

Maybe if we made front end of 1 and 1s we'd have more FTs:weary:

 

[SirScarlet]

All 14 teams are not equal! Our 3s are not offensive threats. Our 2 guard doesn't penetrate and is a perimter shooter. We don't make a concerted effort to get the ball inside. Corey is the only one that is drawing fouls.

Maybe if we made front end of 1 and 1s we'd have more FTs:weary:

clearly you didnt read the article. he did a comparison to teams in a similar position as us.

not all 14 teams

and he talked about fouls...not just FTs.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In 7 home games Rutgers has been whistled for 2 fewer fouls and have taken 9 less FTs? That is the evidence?

I am sorry, but Jerry Carino needs to find better things to write about.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I am sorry no one is vindicated because Jerry Carino wrote a column.

 

[SirScarlet]

In 7 home games Rutgers has been whistled for 2 fewer fouls and have taken 9 less FTs? That is the evidence?

I am sorry, but Jerry Carino needs to find better things to write about.

you conveniently left this out:

In Nebraska’s conference home games, the Cornhuskers have been whistled for a collective 19 fewer fouls and taken a combined 49 more free throws than their guests.

In Penn State’s conference home games, the Nittany Lions have been whistled for 25 fewer fouls and taken 53 more free throws than their guests.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

RU and PSU both committed 17 foulf 1/1/2017 and Corey didn't start and played 22 minutes. Johnson, Williams, Omoruyi, Freeman and Gettys were your starters. Do you honestly think that lineup draws fouls and is tough to defend.

1/21/17 nebraska committed 18 fouls and Ru 13. We shot 20 FTs and they shot 9.

 

[Knights 1212]

I think Jerry is right on the money. The better teams always seem to get the much better whistle.

 

[MADHAT1]

Obviously Rutgers needs to hire its own refs and this board could supply the candidates :cool2:

 

[SirScarlet]

RU and PSU both committed 17 foulf 1/1/2017 and Corey didn't start and played 22 minutes. Johnson, Williams, Omoruyi, Freeman and Gettys were your starters. Do you honestly think that lineup draws fouls and is tough to defend.

1/21/17 nebraska committed 18 fouls and Ru 13. We shot 20 FTs and they shot 9.

From Carino:
The Wolverines made both free throws and won by four. The visitors, who rarely drove to the basket (they launched 31 3-pointers), finished the night with 10 more free-throw attempts than Rutgers.

Keep deflecting...

 

[RUbarb Pi]

I think Jerry is right on the money. The better teams always seem to get the much better whistle.

The better teams play better.

 

[bac2therac]

boo hoo

do not see the point to this article at all....especially since some of the stats do not even support the argument.

what does this mean anyhow? seems like Jerry ran out of things to write about

but we will have fans that cling to this like it means something, not sure what as if RU should have a different record than 2-14 in league play

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Michigan's guards don't penetrate but their 3,4 and 5s do. i am sorry the statistical arguments are very weak.

1 thing not mentioned....you rack up FTs when you protect a lead and get fouled intentionialy. We haven't had that luxury often.

 

[SirScarlet]

The better teams play better.

so playing better = less fouling?

come on, you know it is more complicated than that.

part of the point of Jerry's article, is that it is generally understood that a home team gets a bit more of a break with regards to the whistle. and this year, it's not happening even though we are a team that doesn't shoot a lot of 3s.

one could make a very strong argument that officiating has cost has 2-3 conference wins.

 

[SirScarlet]

boo hoo

do not see the point to this article at all....especially since some of the stats do not even support the argument.

what does this mean anyhow? seems like Jerry ran out of things to write about

but we will have fans that cling to this like it means something, not sure what as if RU should have a different record than 2-14 in league play

I am not surprised at all that you don't see the point of the article.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The good news is that people are paying attention to whistles because they mean a lot.

No doubt that officiating impacts games. The 4 point play with Williams fouling the 3 point shooter probably doesn't occur if the screen wasn't moving.

The officiating whinners make it as if no calls don't go against our opponents. I can promise you all 7 opposing coaches have been upset at times by the officiating at the RAC.

 

[winfield102]

How many players do we have that are able to draw fouls?

We are our own worst enemy.

 

[RUbarb Pi]

so playing better = less fouling?

come on, you know it is more complicated than that.

part of the point of Jerry's article, is that it is generally understood that a home team gets a bit more of a break with regards to the whistle. and this year, it's not happening even though we are a team that doesn't shoot a lot of 3s.

one could make a very strong argument that officiating has cost has 2-3 conference wins.

"so playing better = less fouling?" Making wide open looks and making those uncontested foul shots will cause less fouling.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

How many players do we have that are able to draw fouls?

We are our own worst enemy.

...and we are 1-6 at home so we don't pad FTA late in games.

Very disappointed article by Carino.

looking at B1G the stories are....
We are #1 in offensive rebounding
Shaq Doorson transformation
Mike Williams play
Corey Sanders improved defense
Overall improved defense
Ridiculously bad FT% 55.7%
breakdown of offensive and defensive possessions late in games (with a mention of officiating)
CJ Gettys 5th year
Pikiell as a coach and relationship with players
Pikiell building foundation

 

[toby83]

What would TV Ted Valentine have to say about this

 

[RUChoppin]

Not sure why you guys are getting on Carino for the article - or if you just didn't read it closely.

Over all 7 conference home games, RU has had just 2 fewer fouls called on us as our opponents have. That works out to 0.3 fewer fouls per game than our opponents. By contrast, Nebraska (who similarly shoots few threes), had 19 fewer fouls than their opponents over 8 games, working out to 2.4 fewer fouls per game than their opponents when playing at home. Also through 8 games, PA St saw a 3.1 fewer fouls per game than their opponents on average.

The comparison is meant to show that we're getting almost a 50/50 split on fouls at home, while Nebraska and PA State are getting more of a home court advantage when it comes to foul calls.

It's interesting in the absence of a home-team bias in officiating.

 

[SirScarlet]

Not sure why you guys are getting on Carino for the article - or if you just didn't read it closely.

Over all 7 conference home games, RU has had just 2 fewer fouls called on us as our opponents have. That works out to 0.3 fewer fouls per game than our opponents. By contrast, Nebraska (who similarly shoots few threes), had 19 fewer fouls than their opponents over 8 games, working out to 2.4 fewer fouls per game than their opponents when playing at home. Also through 8 games, PA St saw a 3.1 fewer fouls per game than their opponents on average.

The comparison is meant to show that we're getting almost a 50/50 split on fouls at home, while Nebraska and PA State are getting more of a home court advantage when it comes to foul calls.

It's interesting in the absence of a home-team bias in officiating.

exactly. you have to be really stuck in your position to not see what he's trying to say.

Carino is a straight shooter, which is why I was intrigued when I saw this pop up in my timeline.

but...this is a classic strategy...you don't like the message so you shoot the messenger

 

[SirScarlet]

"so playing better = less fouling?" Making wide open looks and making those uncontested foul shots will cause less fouling.

yeah, you didn't read the article too closely.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

looking at Penn State....Maryland @ PSU and MSU @Palestra. Take the final 5 minutes of both games and I'll bet your margin is all right there. maryland and michigan State fouling to get back in the game.

When you are 1-6 @ home the FT numbers can easily get skewed.

And again....our starting 2 and 3 don't penetrate.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I have read his article. His argument is weak. He doesn't have enough statistical evidence.

 

[NBKnight]

exactly. you have to be really stuck in your position to not see what he's trying to say.

Carino is a straight shooter, which is why I was intrigued when I saw this pop up in my timeline.

but...this is a classic strategy...you don't like the message so you shoot the messenger

I don't think most people are attacking the messenger, just his methods.

 

[Rutgers25]

Forget about the stats, my eyes tell me that the officiating has generally been within reason. Have we gotten a few bad breaks? Probably. But I don't see some kind of alarming pattern.

On the other hand, Mike Rice coached teams routinely dealt with unfair officiating. I recall one game on the road at Georgetown that was just unbelievably bad.

 

[SirScarlet]

I have read his article. His argument is weak. He doesn't have enough statistical evidence.

I know the "everything works out in the end" argument is just so much stronger...not saying you're peddling that garbage, but it gets pushed a lot on this board, but I don't see too many people looking to statistically break that down

out of curiosity, why do a think a pro like Carino wrote this article? he's just spitballing to see if something sticks? trying to generate clicks?

nobody is going to confuse his article for a guy trying to get his masters in statistics, but I do think the article confirms what many on here have been saying all B1G season (including Pike several times)...we've been on the short end of the stick by the refs. Does that mean it's a major conspiracy? Nope. But refs aren't robots. They're human beings, and if you have a pulse, the amount of negative news you have heard about RU bball the past 5 years is overwhelming. And I believe that affects them. Not in a malicious way. But there is a latent bias that leads to more of the calls which require judgment (which btw, by definition relies on the individual's perspective)

And, I will predict that as we get better, these 50/50 calls will start trending our way. Like they did when we got better in football.

but trying to deny this stuff doesn't happen in sports is simply silly in my eyes

kudos to Jerry for having the nuts to write about this.

 

[SirScarlet]

I don't think most people are attacking the messenger, just his methods.

2 posters said he wrote about this because he ran out of things to write about. that's essentially calling the guy unprofessional.

 

[RUChoppin]

I have read his article. His argument is weak. He doesn't have enough statistical evidence.

Would you expect there to be variance in the number of fouls called on a team at home vs. on the road? That is, would you expect home teams to get a favorable whistle overall?

This is getting me curious enough to look through all the conference games to see fouls called on the home team vs. the visiting team. The hypothesis would be that teams would see better fortunes (team fouls vs. opponent fouls) at home, and worse fortunes on the road.

As an example, Rutgers was 124:126 at home while they were 171:154 on the road. That is already showing a friendlier home whistle (-2 at home; +17 on the road)... but how does that variance compare to other teams in the conference?

Would probably make sense to wait until the regular season is over to look at it, though, so each team would have an equal number of home and away games.

 

[Knights 1212]

I believe when we played Iowa on the road we only lost by 6 points yet Iowa had like 23 foul shots and we only had four. That seems out of line to me.

 

[RUChoppin]

I believe when we played Iowa on the road we only lost by 6 points yet Iowa had like 23 foul shots and we only had four. That seems out of line to me.

Not saying it was the case that game, but style of play usually dictates number of fouls and number of foul shots. If you settle for a lot of jumpers, you don't pick up a lot of fouls... and if you pound the paint, you usually do. So, any given game doesn't really show a whole lot.... if one team settled for jumpers all the time, and the other team fed the ball inside all the time, for instance.

But over the course of a season, good outside shooting teams will largely take a lot more jumpers and pick up a lot fewer shooting fouls overall.... and penetrating/paint dominant teams will pick up more fouls overall. The question is whether a given team's style translates to more fouls on the road than at home, which could point to home court advantage.

Still, it's a small sample set just looking at one season, anyway - just 9 home games and 9 away games.

 

[Loyal-Son]

I know the "everything works out in the end" argument is just so much stronger...not saying you're peddling that garbage, but it gets pushed a lot on this board, but I don't see too many people looking to statistically break that down

out of curiosity, why do a think a pro like Carino wrote this article? he's just spitballing to see if something sticks? trying to generate clicks?

nobody is going to confuse his article for a guy trying to get his masters in statistics, but I do think the article confirms what many on here have been saying all B1G season (including Pike several times)...we've been on the short end of the stick by the refs. Does that mean it's a major conspiracy? Nope. But refs aren't robots. They're human beings, and if you have a pulse, the amount of negative news you have heard about RU bball the past 5 years is overwhelming. And I believe that affects them. Not in a malicious way. But there is a latent bias that leads to more of the calls which require judgment (which btw, by definition relies on the individual's perspective)

And, I will predict that as we get better, these 50/50 calls will start trending our way. Like they did when we got better in football.

You nailed it IMO.

but trying to deny this stuff doesn't happen in sports is simply silly in my eyes

kudos to Jerry for having the nuts to write about this.

You nailed it. There are a few posters who are eager to point out every perceived weakness or flaw of RU players and coaches, but who somehow believe that all officials are flawless and incapable of being susceptible to the kinds of biases that afflict any ordinary person.

 

[SJScarlet]

Forget about the stats, my eyes tell me that the officiating has generally been within reason. Have we gotten a few bad breaks? Probably. But I don't see some kind of alarming pattern.

On the other hand, Mike Rice coached teams routinely dealt with unfair officiating. I recall one game on the road at Georgetown that was just unbelievably bad.

That Georgetown game was essentially stolen from us. Worst I've ever seen.

 

[RUbarb Pi]

You nailed it. There are a few posters who are eager to point out every perceived weakness or flaw of RU players and coaches, but who somehow believe that all officials are flawless and incapable of being susceptible to the kinds of biases that afflict any ordinary person.

The refs are not ordinary people. They go far beyond the effort of ordinary people in developing their skills to fairly manage a game. They are the true professionals in the equation.

 

[RUChoppin]

The refs are not ordinary people. They go far beyond the effort of ordinary people in developing their skills to fairly manage a game. They are the true professionals in the equation.

Yet Refs can also be impacted by external factors.

There was an interesting breakdown of football officiating on fivethirtyeight.com a few weeks back talking about how calls may change when refs are standing near coaches on the sideline.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nfl-coaches-yell-at-refs-because-it-freakin-works/

 

[Rutgers25]

That Georgetown game was essentially stolen from us. Worst I've ever seen.

It honestly felt like the refs were compromised during that game. I've never felt that strongly before.

 

[SirScarlet]

The refs are not ordinary people. They go far beyond the effort of ordinary people in developing their skills to fairly manage a game. They are the true professionals in the equation.

of course. but, they're still....people. with emotions, bias, etc etc etc.

again, I have never suggested this is malicious. it's quite natural. but it exists.

 

[TDIrish27]

If I was the author I would focus on where the team ranks in the Big Ten in the following categories.

FG %
3 PT %
Assists to TO's
FT %

Those are the things that win or lose games for you