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Bart Torvik’s ACCT prediction

O

OldasdirtDevil

Heisman
Nov 16, 2009
19,469
15,753
0
pisgah101 said:
I was wondering if Z was factored
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I don't know, Pisgah. But out of sight, out of mind. I think people may be forgetting just how incredible Zion is until they see him back in action on the floor. And of course, they could be waiting to see if Zion is back to his 'old' self (which I have no doubt he will be).
If we win the ACCT, I believe Vegas will have Duke as the favorite to win the chip.

OFC
 
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C

chov1125

All-Conference
Oct 15, 2008
3,046
1,826
73
When looking at odds/percentages you have to take into account that the ACC is a 3 headed monster. Our path is similar to UNC, which is different than Virginia. Virginia likely only needs to go through V-Tech to get to the finals. We will likely have to go through UNC. When you establish odds you have to factor in the likelihood winning 2 tough games as compared to 1. Hence why Virginia is the overwhelming favorite.
 
Q

Quavarius

Heisman
Aug 12, 2009
175,654
22,058
113
chov1125 said:
When looking at odds/percentages you have to take into account that the ACC is a 3 headed monster. Our path is similar to UNC, which is different than Virginia. Virginia likely only needs to go through V-Tech to get to the finals. We will likely have to go through UNC. When you establish odds you have to factor in the likelihood winning 2 tough games as compared to 1. Hence why Virginia is the overwhelming favorite.
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Yes, the one seed has the easier path. But the one seed doesn’t always win it.
 
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pisgah101

pisgah101

Heisman
Dec 26, 2005
15,649
13,548
113
dukiejay said:
I think they're factoring it based on 31 games played to date. It's analytics. If they factored it off the first 25 games then Duke would be the favorite.



Duke is already the favorite, with UVA and Gonzaga coming in next.
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Makes the most sense
 
C

chov1125

All-Conference
Oct 15, 2008
3,046
1,826
73
It explains why Duke is the favorite to win it all and yet not the favorite to win the ACCT. A simple hypothetical (not going to happen, for hypothetical purposes only), Duke lands the 1 seed. In their region they also have Kentucky, Michigan, Texas Tech and Houston. Virginia gets a 1 seed. In their region is Maryland, St John's, Syracuse and 12 other teams that have no chance of winning it all. Duke would no longer be the favorite. Once the likely match-ups are known and one team has a clear advantage over another, the odds will change. Doesn't mean that Vegas believes that Virginia is better, just that they are more likely to win it all.
 
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