Okay everyone its that time of the year again. Bac's first look at the NCAA tournament bubble.
Here are the 32 projected automatic bid winners...
AMERICA EAST: Albany
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC 10: VCU
ACC: Virginia
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Sacremento State
BIG SOUTH: High Point
BIG 10: Wisconsin
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: Northeastern
CUSA: Louisiana Tech
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MVC: Northern Iowa
MWC: San Diego State
NEC: St Francis NY
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Sam Houston State
SWAC: Alabama State
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
SUN BELT: Georgia Southern
WCC: Gonzaga
15 schools that I have identified as at large locks....
Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Wichita State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Butler.
that takes care of 47 of the 68 bids. I will give a conference by conference breakdown on the bubble team....I have identified 33 schools competing for 21 at large bids.
ACC
IN
(48) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-11: Wolfpack midseason skid was halted by a huge road win at Louisville that put them back on the right side of the bubble. Resume has some nice things on it. The feather in their cap win over Duke, wins over bubbles Pitt and Boise State, plus a win over CUSA leader La Tech. They have just one loss outside the top 100. The SOS is a sparkling third in the country. 4-6 vs top 50 and 7-10 vs top 100 seem solid enough. NC State must avoid danger of the 3 road stretch at UNC, at BC and at Clemson before they take on Syracuse. Need a split of those 4 to stay safe.
OUT
(36) PITTSBURGH 17-10: Overall just a meh resume for Pitt this year. Yes they did beat Notre Dame and UNC but their best non conference wins were Kansas State and Florida Gulf Coast. Just 2-7 vs top 50 and 4-8 vs the top 100, the Panthers seem pretty bubblicious this year. Note the 4-8 road/neutral mark as well. They simply need to pick up some more quality wins. Unfortunately their last 4 games of BC/Wake/Miami/FSU do not offer much. The Miami game might be a bubble showdown but Pitt probably needs to do some damage in the ACC tourney beating one of the big guns.
(66) MIAMI 17-10: Hurricanes came oh so close to winning at Louisville which would have moved them into the field but for now remain out. The good news is that they get another shot at a big win when they host UNC followed by a bubble showdown at Pitt. They just need something else to go along with that huge overflowing win at Duke earlier in the year. Wins vs NC State and Ilinois were nice but 2-5 vs top 50 and just 6-6 vs top 100 with a SOS of 76 is pretty middling. Note more than a few bad losses...Eastern Kentucky, Wake, Ga Tech, FSU. There are enough reason to leave them out but opportunity still exists.
AAC
IN
(31) TEMPLE 19-9: Owls 7 game win streak and a chance to shore up their resume ended in a thud as they were stymied on the road vs league leading SMU and Tulsa. It did not knock them out yet but it did raise questions given there are some things lacking. Just 1-4 vs top 25, a woeful 2-7 vs top 50 and a so so 6-8 vs top 100. Also note its playing in a conference that simply isn't respected all that much. Rated 8th in the country, you wonder how many bids the AAC will get considering the snub SMU got last year. They probably get 3 but with Tulsa and Cincy in contention, the Owls better take care of weak sisters like Houston and ECU but beating a down UConn is very important as well. The early win at Kansas is their feather in their cap but can be overlooked if they don't finish strong.
(50) CINCINNATI 18-9: While Cincy's overall rpi and SOS is not as good as Temple's and they don't have a win as strong as the Owls they may actually have the edge over the Owls. Here is why. Both teams split the series with each other but here is the key. Cincy swept league leading SMU the only school to beat the Mustangs. The Bearcats also have a win over MWC leader San Diego State and at bubble NC State. 3-1 vs top 25.. a very good 5-4 vs top 50 and 6-6 vs top 100. Now they do have some bad losses...at East Carolina, Tulane and Nebraska so its going to be important to not trip up against the likes of UCF, Tulane and Memphis. They also travel to Tulsa and that game is a big bubble showdown that they would do themselves well to win.
OUT
(42) TULSA 19-6: Suddenly the brash AAC newcomers are tied for first with SMU at 12-2. Unfortunately despite the gaudy win total, you have to ask yourself, does 2 wins over Temple get you in the NCAA tournament? Because that's all that's here on the resume. With the unbalanced schedule, the Golden Hurricanes have had an advantage. Still they get opportunites the last two games hosting Cincy and travelling to SMU...they simply will need to win both. 0-3 vs top 25, 2-4 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs top 100 with a SOS of 122 does not cut it. Their best OOC win was Auburn and 10 of their 19 wins were against plus 200 rpi schools. Lots of red flags here.
ATLANTIC 10
IN
(35) DAYTON 20-6: The bubble is so soft this year that even with their unimpressive resume the Flyers are still on the last 2 in/last 2 out grouping. However with the A10 being down you wonder if it can get more than 2 bids this year. Overall rpi is great so is the gaudy win total, the 10-4 mark in league is good however they have benefitted from an unbalanced scheduled. Flyers still have not beaten anyone of note in league. They lost at bubbles Davidson and UMass, also have recent losses at GW and a bad Duquense. Their best conference win was Richmond. 8 of their 20 wins are plus rpi 200. What they do have going for them is two wins over likely NCAA at larges from the SEC...Texas A&M and Ole Miss. 2-2 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs top 100 is needing. That Duquense loss is particularly damaging but they can shore up their resumes with wins over URI and at VCU not an easy task but if they don't they will need a run to the A10 finals to feel good
OUT
(64) RHODE ISLAND 18-6: Suddenly Danny Hurley's team is peaking at the right time. The Rams have won 8 of their last 9 and have pulled into a tie for first with VCU at 11-3 in league. Rams simply need to keep winning. Their win over UMass was the only top 50 win they have and UMass is on the outside of the bubble right now. 1-4 vs top 50 and 4-4 vs top 100 does not get you in even if you are in first in this league. Their best OOC win was Nebraska. 11 of their 18 wins are to plu 200 rpi schools and that's reflected in the abysmal SOS of 199. Still they have opportunities to pick up two more quality wins with games against Davidson and Dayton looming but cannot afford anymore trip ups like St Joes. Fate will probably be decided by their A-10 tourney run.
(54) DAVIDSON 18-6: Another A10 school suffering from the dregs at the bottom of the conference bringing everyone down. 10 of their wins are to plus 200 rpi schools. The SOS is a bad 164. They have 0 top 25 wins. Now their numbers are slightly better than Rhody, 2-3 vs top 50 and 5-4 vs top 100. But their best non conference win was UNC Wilmington and conference wins over Dayton and UMass do not move the needle all that much. Bad losses to St Bonnies and St Joes hurt. With 3 games left against top 100 schools including one against VCU and one against URI, Davidson clearly has the most opportunity of any A10 bubble. Beat VCU and URI and they will put themselves on top of the A10 bubble mess. Still it looks like that mess will not be sorted out until the dust settles in the A10 tournament
(38) MASSACHUSETTS 16-11: Minutemen were riding a 6 game win streak with opportunities to solidify their resume but fell flat on their face in losses to URI and VCU. It was particularly crushing because their last 4 games do not particular provide a chance for more quality wins. Richmond and GW are borderline top 100 so it could add to the 6-8 mark vs rpi top 100 which is actually pretty solid but the 2-3 mark vs top 50 still is lacking. Wins over Iona and Dayton are not enough to get you in. Yes UMass scheduled strong this year and the SOS of 17 the best thing going on their resume but they simply lost too many of them. Losses to bubbles LSU and BYU and then bad losses to St Bonnies and St Joes. This is a good team and they are capable of making a A10 tourney run so not out of it at all.
BIG EAST
(Note the numbers/stats do not include last night's St John's win over Xavier)
IN
(24) XAVIER 18-10: Muskateers could have sealed an at large bid last night at St Johns but their rally fell short. That's okay with the weak bubble this year, they appear to still be in good shape. Nova coming up isn't a must win but they cannot afford to trip up at Creighton. Not sure 8-10 in the Big East will cut the mustard this year. Still lots of things to like. 4-3 vs top 25, 5-4 vs top 100 and an impressive 9-6 vs top 100. Tough to keep them out. Wins include a sweep of Georgetown, PC, Butler, at Cincy and some very nice wins over possible NCAA autobid schools Murray St, Florida Gulf Coast, and SF Austin. Yes we have those bad losses to Creighton, De Paul and Auburn but with the SOS of 24 and such strong rpi numbers that stuff is easily overlooked
(39) ST JOHN'S 17-9: Always good to see schools playing their way in to the tournament rather than leave it up in the air. With two wins in 10 days over Xavier, the Redmen have shored up their rpi numbers. 7 top 100 wins coming into that game..make that 8 now and now 4 top 50 wins. Non conference they only have a win over St Marys and Cuse so that side is a bit weak but those sweeps over PC and Xavier a big now. Still would like to see them beat Gtown at home to make it academic with games looming at Marquette and Nova. Big East is in line to get a whopping 6 schools this year.
BIG 12
IN
(29) OKLAHOMA STATE: Cowboys appear close but they have dropped 3 straight to fall to 7-8 in the league. RPI stuff is excellent...SOS of 11 check...6-7 vs top 50 check, 8-7 vs top 100 check. Sweep of Baylor and Texas, a big win over Kansas, a nice OOC win over Tulsa. Only thing that could keep them out is if they continue the losing skid. They had a bad loss at TCU and get them again as well as a trip to WVU who the just lost to at home and a trip to Texas Tech. Need to just stop the bleeding and everything should be fine for them
(40) TEXAS 17-10: Longhorns are an interesting case study. In most year or at least before the 4 extra at large bids were added, Texas would be in some big trouble. A hideous 1-9 vs top 50 rpi schools, a pretty weak 4-10 vs the top 100. Their only wins of note were WVU and bubble Iowa. They are just 6-8 in the Big 12. Still with how weak the bubble is and the fact that the Big 12 is far and away the top conference this year it looks likes the Longhorns are not sweating just yet. The SOS is 18...clearly they played a lot of top schools, they have not lost to anyone outside the top 100 with their worst loss being Stanford at 51. Now the final 4 games though are not easy...at WVU and at Kansas, if they lose those they sit at 6-10 and will likely need to win the last two vs Baylor and Kansas State with the former offering a much needed top 50 win.
BIG 10
IN
(28) MICHIGAN STATE 19-8: Spartans don't seem to have the impressive resume that we are used to seeing from them but it looks like there is enough for them to be relative safe. Winners of 6 of their last 7 they have now moved to 2nd place in the Big 10 at 10-4. They have picked up 3 solid road wins to go along with their win over Ohio State to solidfy their resume. Still the best win is only Indiana, they have no non conference wins of note. Just 2-5 vs top 50 but a solid enough 6-6 vs top 100. Just one bad loss at Nebraska but they have been a strong road team going 8-5. Opportunities to pad their top 100 numbers coming up with games against Minnesota and Purdue and road trips to Wisconsin and Indiana. Would take a total implosion to derail their at large hopes.
(32) INDIANA 19-9: Might have the strongest resume of the Big 10 bubbles but we will still keep them here for now. Quality OOC wins over SMU, Butler, and Pitt. League wins over Maryland and Ohio State. 5-6 vs top 50 and 8-9 vs top 100. Even the two losses to Purdue and the loss to Eastern Washington do not look so bad. Hooisers would have to lose all 3 remaining games at Northwestern, Iowa, MSU plus lose their opening Big 10 tourney game to move them near the Mendoza line.
(41) OHIO STATE 19-8: Here is another school that is benefitting from the weak at large field. Buckeyes are just 2-4 vs top 50 and 6-6 vs top 100. Their SOS is a mediocre 91. Their best OOC win was High Point. 8 of their wins are to plus 200 rpi schools. They are a bad road team at 3-7. They do have wins over Maryland, Indiana and Illinois but nothing is particularly striking about their resume. Still there are no bad losses..worst was last weekend at Michigan. Just need to avoid major missteps in the last two weeks. Nebby, Purdue, Wisky and at PSU on the docket and a split should be good enough to lock them in
(55) IOWA 17-10: Hawkeyes recovered from a midseason slump with two straight over bottom feeders Nebby and RU but they will need to close strong down the stretch. The numbers seem okay 4-6 vs top 50 and 6-9 vs top 100. They swept Ohio State, beat Maryland and do have a really nice road win at UNC. Just one real bad loss at Northwestern. Games at Indy and home to Illinois provide chances to lock them but they cant slip up at Penn State or Northwestern either. Seem to be ahead of the game in the bubble pecking order than OSU, Purdue and Illinois
(59) PURDUE 18-9: Boilermakers are the surprise team of the Big 10 and find themselves sitting in a tie for second at 10-4. Ive seen a lot of other bracketologist puts them near the last 4 in/last 4 out line but that's nonsense. They have played too well once the Big 10 season begain, the selection committee figures to overlook their early losses to Gardner Webb and North Florida as well as another bad loss at Vandy. Thinking is if Purdue can pick up another quality win in their last 4. RU, at OSU, at MSU and Illinois left they lock in. The last game is particulary important for them. So while they haven't picked up a top 25 win yet, 4-3 vs top 50 and 8-5 vs top 100 are their strong points. Wins over bubble schools NCState and BYU loom large.
(58) ILLINOIS 17-10: At the bottom of the Big 10 bubble pecking order, the Illini are quite bubblicious sitting on the last 4 in line as of now. The numbers here are just so so. 3-5 vs top 50 and 5-8 vs top 100. They are not a good road team at 5-8. The win over Baylor is really good. In league wins over Maryland and Purude and at Michigan State but they need some more umph. Problem is the upcoming schedule. The home games of Nebby (who they lost to once) and Northwestern do not provide a chance to build the resume and the road games at Iowa and Purdue are going to be tough to pull off. Need to win one of those preferably both or they will need to do damage in the Big 10 tourney..ie getting to the semis.
MWC
IN
(27) COLORADO STATE 22-5: The Mountain West has slipped tremendously this year as it has dropped all the way down to the 12th rated conference. Going to be tough to get more than 2 from this league but the Rams have the inside track right now but simply need to keep winning. The Rams did beat league leader San Diego State so they get respect there. A split with fellow bubble Boise State but particularly interesting is they got swept by another bubble Wyoming. But yet only 5 losses..only one bad loss to New Mexico. The 2-2 vs top 50 and 5-4 vs top 100 are middling. Their best OOC wins were Georgia State and UTEP. Is that enough? The sheer win total is gaudy but 11 of those game to plus 200 rpi schools They finish with a bunch of bottom feeders...San Jose St, Nevada and Utah State, absolutely no trip ups allowed and they would do themselves well to get to the MWC finals to feel safe.
OUT
(43) BOISE STATE: 18-7: The hot team of the moment having won 10 of 11 but that one bad loss to Fresno could loom large. The profile is similar to CSU perhaps a tad behind overall in SOS and overall number. Both beat San Diego State. Boise has a bigger OOC win with St Marys. However they have 3 bad losses...Fresno, Loyola and Utah St. 2-3 vs top 50 and 5-4 vs top 100. Big key here is the opportunity to get another win at San Diego State, now that would give them the edge on the Rams but they also need to hold serve against the conference bottom feeders. It figures to come down to which team can take the other down in the MWC semis
(77) WYOMING 19-6: I suppose we can put the Cowboys on this list but they are a longshot. They are 3-0 against CSU and Boise. However with 12 of their 19 wins coming against plus rpi 200 schools its hard to recommend them. 3-3 vs top 50, 4-4 vs top 100. Their best OOC was Colorado and only have 6 wins vs top 100 rpi schools. The bad losses to Air Force and Utah State probably seal their fate. If they can sweep their last 4 and then upset San Diego State somewhere in the MWC tourney then maybe they become bubblicious.
PAC 12
(45) OREGON 19-8: As usual the Pac 12 is muddled with bubble teams and the conference on the whole is down yet again. The Ducks would seem to lead the pack of bubbles but still are lacking big wins. The 8-7 mark vs top 100 is the strong point here but they are just 2-5 vs top 100. Did beat 2nd place Utah, fellow bubbles Oregon State and UCLA. Note the win over Illinois. They only have one bad loss to Washington State and that road/neutral mark of 3-6 is kind of sketchy. The last 3 will not be easy...all on the road...Cal, Stanford, Oregon State. Would be nice for them to pick up 2 to lock in, one leaves them probably in but drop all 3 and they are in some trouble. Still whatever happens the Pac 12 tourney is opportunity for they and all the other Pac 12 bubbles to play their way in.
(51) STANFORD 17-9: Cardinal are on the last 4 in line. Beating Wofford and Texas should not be enough to get you in but with the weak bubble someone has to get in. The selling point here is the 9-5 mark vs top 100 schools so while at 1-5 vs top 50 they have no big wins, those 9 wins are far and away better than most bubble schools. Still they should not feel safe. Work to be done in the last 4...the Oregon schools at home and the Arizona schools on the road. This stretch will either lock them in or leave them dangling. Note that they were swept by UCLA and lost to BYU. 3 bad losses to De Paul, WSU and Colorado too.
(47) UCLA 16-12: The SOS of 13 is why I have the Bruins in for now. Not really heavy on quality wins...2-7 vs top 50 and a mediocre 6-11 vs top 100. Did beat Utah, swept Stanford and split with the Oregon schools. Best OOC was just Long Beach State though. One bad loss to Colorado. The road mark is a hideous 3-11. No chance for quality wins in the last 3...Washington schools plus USC but if they can win those games all of which are at home to get to 11-7 in league and make a nice run to maybe the semis in the pac 12 tourney this is a team that will get in.
OUT
(95) OREGON STATE 16-10: That hideous loss last week to USC really stings and they had an earlier bad loss to Quinnipiac The Beavers are on this list simply because they beat Arizona. Other than that just a win over UCLA and a non conference win over Portland which is nothing to write home about. Still the last 3 gives them a shot at 3 top 100 rpi wins that can bolster their resume. Road games at Stanford and Cal and home to Oregon. Win all 3 and they become legit. Road has been tough where they are just 3-6. SOS of 125 is not good. 2-5 vs top 50 and 4-7 vs top 100 does not get it done for a Power 5 school right now
SEC
IN
(33) MISSISSIPPI 19-8: Ole Miss looks in great shape right now. Non conference wins vs Oregon and Cincinnati. League wins at Arky and over Texas A&M. 4-4 vs top 50 and 705 vs top 100 are impressive. 10-3 on the road looks outstanding. SOS is solid at 50. I think the bad losses to TCU, W Kentucky, and Charleston Southern are negated by the positives. Still its not an easy stretch in last 4....Georgia, at LSU, at Bama, and Vandy. Just want to avoid a total meltdown
(53) LSU 19-8: The SOS of 100 may be worse than any other SEC bubble but what stands out here is the 9-5 mark vs top 100 rpi which is better than anyone else here. LSU is 4-4 vs top 50 which include wins at WVU, UMass, they also won at Ole Miss and beat Georgia in their only meeting. The thing holding them back is the 3 bad losses to Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State. Still their two point loss to Kentucky should help them. If they can take down Ole Miss again or win at Arky they can lock things up. Getting swept by Texas A&M is interesting but the eye test says they may be a better tournament team
(34) GEORGIA 17-9: Bulldogs are in right now by the skin of their teeth. They have no top 25 wins, are just 2-3 vs top 50, the 6-5 mark vs top 100 helps them but they should not feel too safe right now. They still have to play at Ole Miss and get Kentucky at home. Winning the latter of course would lock them but short of that they might need that former or leave it up to the always topsy turvy SEC tournament. Just wins over Ole Miss and at Texas A&M to point to and will they get credit for a win over currently imploding SHU out of conference. Getting swept by So Carolina and losing to Auburn hurts
OUT
(37) TEXAS A&M 19-7: The Aggies are the hottest team in the SEC outside of Kentucky winning 10 of their last 12 and sitting in 2nd place in the league so why do they sit on the last 4 out line. Well that's because they do not have one damn top 50 win....0-2 vs top 25 and 0-5 vs top 50. Their best wins were the sweep of LSU who sits outside the top 50. If LSU can move inside the top 50, it will help the Aggies. I feel the LSU profile is overall slightly better despite the head to head losses so for now the Aggies sit here. Their best OOC in was a mediocre Arizona State. The SOS is 90. They have not loss to a team outside the top 100 that's a plus. Now next up is a game at Arkansas it would give them the kind of win they desperately need to move them into the field. They, LSU and Georgia are all most bubblicious right now.
WCC
OUT
(56) ST MARY'S 19-7: Despite Gonzaga's success this year, the WCC is not even in the top 10 rpi conferences. Its going to be tough to get a 2nd team given that the two bubbles are short on wins. St Marys split with BYU this year but lost to Gonzaga twice. Also note the losses to fellow bubbles St Johns and Boise State. Their best OOC win was Colonial leader Northeastern. They have a slight edge on BYU in SOS but its the rest of the bubble field they just fall short in comparison to. 0-4 vs top 50 and 2-5 vs top 100 just does not get it done. Must win their last two and get to the WCC finals beating BYU and then hope that they can play Gonzaga close and get some respect.
(60) BYU 19-8: Cougars do have the better wins compared to St Marys....UMass and Stanford. Nice to have them but ultimately the numbers at 1-3 vs top 50 and 3-5 vs top 100 are not there. Being swept by Pepperdine kills them as does the loss to San Diego. The big thing here is they still have a game at Gonzaga to play in addition to Portland. Its very simple...beat Gonzaga and then your chances go up tenfold. Lose and they suffer the same fate as St Mary's.
LAST 4 IN: DAYTON, STANFORD, GEORGIA, LSU
LAST 4 OUT: TEXAS A&M, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, BOISE STATE
The bubble is extremely weak this year. I know I have been saying this for the past few years. Ever since they added 4 more at large schools to the field its become less interesting and compelling. It really looks like conference realignment has put a kibosh somewhat on midmajor bubble schools. Seems like they are pretty scarce at this point. The pecking order will be released on my next full update on Monday/Tuesday of next week.
Here are the 32 projected automatic bid winners...
AMERICA EAST: Albany
AMERICAN: SMU
ATLANTIC 10: VCU
ACC: Virginia
ATLANTIC SUN: Florida Gulf Coast
BIG 12: Kansas
BIG EAST: Villanova
BIG SKY: Sacremento State
BIG SOUTH: High Point
BIG 10: Wisconsin
BIG WEST: UC Davis
COLONIAL: Northeastern
CUSA: Louisiana Tech
HORIZON: Valparaiso
IVY: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Central Michigan
MEAC: North Carolina Central
MVC: Northern Iowa
MWC: San Diego State
NEC: St Francis NY
OHIO VALLEY: Murray State
PAC 12: Arizona
PATRIOT: Bucknell
SEC: Kentucky
SOUTHERN: Wofford
SOUTHLAND: Sam Houston State
SWAC: Alabama State
SUMMIT: South Dakota State
SUN BELT: Georgia Southern
WCC: Gonzaga
15 schools that I have identified as at large locks....
Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, North Carolina, Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Wichita State, Utah, Arkansas, Georgetown, Providence, Butler.
that takes care of 47 of the 68 bids. I will give a conference by conference breakdown on the bubble team....I have identified 33 schools competing for 21 at large bids.
ACC
IN
(48) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-11: Wolfpack midseason skid was halted by a huge road win at Louisville that put them back on the right side of the bubble. Resume has some nice things on it. The feather in their cap win over Duke, wins over bubbles Pitt and Boise State, plus a win over CUSA leader La Tech. They have just one loss outside the top 100. The SOS is a sparkling third in the country. 4-6 vs top 50 and 7-10 vs top 100 seem solid enough. NC State must avoid danger of the 3 road stretch at UNC, at BC and at Clemson before they take on Syracuse. Need a split of those 4 to stay safe.
OUT
(36) PITTSBURGH 17-10: Overall just a meh resume for Pitt this year. Yes they did beat Notre Dame and UNC but their best non conference wins were Kansas State and Florida Gulf Coast. Just 2-7 vs top 50 and 4-8 vs the top 100, the Panthers seem pretty bubblicious this year. Note the 4-8 road/neutral mark as well. They simply need to pick up some more quality wins. Unfortunately their last 4 games of BC/Wake/Miami/FSU do not offer much. The Miami game might be a bubble showdown but Pitt probably needs to do some damage in the ACC tourney beating one of the big guns.
(66) MIAMI 17-10: Hurricanes came oh so close to winning at Louisville which would have moved them into the field but for now remain out. The good news is that they get another shot at a big win when they host UNC followed by a bubble showdown at Pitt. They just need something else to go along with that huge overflowing win at Duke earlier in the year. Wins vs NC State and Ilinois were nice but 2-5 vs top 50 and just 6-6 vs top 100 with a SOS of 76 is pretty middling. Note more than a few bad losses...Eastern Kentucky, Wake, Ga Tech, FSU. There are enough reason to leave them out but opportunity still exists.
AAC
IN
(31) TEMPLE 19-9: Owls 7 game win streak and a chance to shore up their resume ended in a thud as they were stymied on the road vs league leading SMU and Tulsa. It did not knock them out yet but it did raise questions given there are some things lacking. Just 1-4 vs top 25, a woeful 2-7 vs top 50 and a so so 6-8 vs top 100. Also note its playing in a conference that simply isn't respected all that much. Rated 8th in the country, you wonder how many bids the AAC will get considering the snub SMU got last year. They probably get 3 but with Tulsa and Cincy in contention, the Owls better take care of weak sisters like Houston and ECU but beating a down UConn is very important as well. The early win at Kansas is their feather in their cap but can be overlooked if they don't finish strong.
(50) CINCINNATI 18-9: While Cincy's overall rpi and SOS is not as good as Temple's and they don't have a win as strong as the Owls they may actually have the edge over the Owls. Here is why. Both teams split the series with each other but here is the key. Cincy swept league leading SMU the only school to beat the Mustangs. The Bearcats also have a win over MWC leader San Diego State and at bubble NC State. 3-1 vs top 25.. a very good 5-4 vs top 50 and 6-6 vs top 100. Now they do have some bad losses...at East Carolina, Tulane and Nebraska so its going to be important to not trip up against the likes of UCF, Tulane and Memphis. They also travel to Tulsa and that game is a big bubble showdown that they would do themselves well to win.
OUT
(42) TULSA 19-6: Suddenly the brash AAC newcomers are tied for first with SMU at 12-2. Unfortunately despite the gaudy win total, you have to ask yourself, does 2 wins over Temple get you in the NCAA tournament? Because that's all that's here on the resume. With the unbalanced schedule, the Golden Hurricanes have had an advantage. Still they get opportunites the last two games hosting Cincy and travelling to SMU...they simply will need to win both. 0-3 vs top 25, 2-4 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs top 100 with a SOS of 122 does not cut it. Their best OOC win was Auburn and 10 of their 19 wins were against plus 200 rpi schools. Lots of red flags here.
ATLANTIC 10
IN
(35) DAYTON 20-6: The bubble is so soft this year that even with their unimpressive resume the Flyers are still on the last 2 in/last 2 out grouping. However with the A10 being down you wonder if it can get more than 2 bids this year. Overall rpi is great so is the gaudy win total, the 10-4 mark in league is good however they have benefitted from an unbalanced scheduled. Flyers still have not beaten anyone of note in league. They lost at bubbles Davidson and UMass, also have recent losses at GW and a bad Duquense. Their best conference win was Richmond. 8 of their 20 wins are plus rpi 200. What they do have going for them is two wins over likely NCAA at larges from the SEC...Texas A&M and Ole Miss. 2-2 vs top 50 and 4-5 vs top 100 is needing. That Duquense loss is particularly damaging but they can shore up their resumes with wins over URI and at VCU not an easy task but if they don't they will need a run to the A10 finals to feel good
OUT
(64) RHODE ISLAND 18-6: Suddenly Danny Hurley's team is peaking at the right time. The Rams have won 8 of their last 9 and have pulled into a tie for first with VCU at 11-3 in league. Rams simply need to keep winning. Their win over UMass was the only top 50 win they have and UMass is on the outside of the bubble right now. 1-4 vs top 50 and 4-4 vs top 100 does not get you in even if you are in first in this league. Their best OOC win was Nebraska. 11 of their 18 wins are to plu 200 rpi schools and that's reflected in the abysmal SOS of 199. Still they have opportunities to pick up two more quality wins with games against Davidson and Dayton looming but cannot afford anymore trip ups like St Joes. Fate will probably be decided by their A-10 tourney run.
(54) DAVIDSON 18-6: Another A10 school suffering from the dregs at the bottom of the conference bringing everyone down. 10 of their wins are to plus 200 rpi schools. The SOS is a bad 164. They have 0 top 25 wins. Now their numbers are slightly better than Rhody, 2-3 vs top 50 and 5-4 vs top 100. But their best non conference win was UNC Wilmington and conference wins over Dayton and UMass do not move the needle all that much. Bad losses to St Bonnies and St Joes hurt. With 3 games left against top 100 schools including one against VCU and one against URI, Davidson clearly has the most opportunity of any A10 bubble. Beat VCU and URI and they will put themselves on top of the A10 bubble mess. Still it looks like that mess will not be sorted out until the dust settles in the A10 tournament
(38) MASSACHUSETTS 16-11: Minutemen were riding a 6 game win streak with opportunities to solidify their resume but fell flat on their face in losses to URI and VCU. It was particularly crushing because their last 4 games do not particular provide a chance for more quality wins. Richmond and GW are borderline top 100 so it could add to the 6-8 mark vs rpi top 100 which is actually pretty solid but the 2-3 mark vs top 50 still is lacking. Wins over Iona and Dayton are not enough to get you in. Yes UMass scheduled strong this year and the SOS of 17 the best thing going on their resume but they simply lost too many of them. Losses to bubbles LSU and BYU and then bad losses to St Bonnies and St Joes. This is a good team and they are capable of making a A10 tourney run so not out of it at all.
BIG EAST
(Note the numbers/stats do not include last night's St John's win over Xavier)
IN
(24) XAVIER 18-10: Muskateers could have sealed an at large bid last night at St Johns but their rally fell short. That's okay with the weak bubble this year, they appear to still be in good shape. Nova coming up isn't a must win but they cannot afford to trip up at Creighton. Not sure 8-10 in the Big East will cut the mustard this year. Still lots of things to like. 4-3 vs top 25, 5-4 vs top 100 and an impressive 9-6 vs top 100. Tough to keep them out. Wins include a sweep of Georgetown, PC, Butler, at Cincy and some very nice wins over possible NCAA autobid schools Murray St, Florida Gulf Coast, and SF Austin. Yes we have those bad losses to Creighton, De Paul and Auburn but with the SOS of 24 and such strong rpi numbers that stuff is easily overlooked
(39) ST JOHN'S 17-9: Always good to see schools playing their way in to the tournament rather than leave it up in the air. With two wins in 10 days over Xavier, the Redmen have shored up their rpi numbers. 7 top 100 wins coming into that game..make that 8 now and now 4 top 50 wins. Non conference they only have a win over St Marys and Cuse so that side is a bit weak but those sweeps over PC and Xavier a big now. Still would like to see them beat Gtown at home to make it academic with games looming at Marquette and Nova. Big East is in line to get a whopping 6 schools this year.
BIG 12
IN
(29) OKLAHOMA STATE: Cowboys appear close but they have dropped 3 straight to fall to 7-8 in the league. RPI stuff is excellent...SOS of 11 check...6-7 vs top 50 check, 8-7 vs top 100 check. Sweep of Baylor and Texas, a big win over Kansas, a nice OOC win over Tulsa. Only thing that could keep them out is if they continue the losing skid. They had a bad loss at TCU and get them again as well as a trip to WVU who the just lost to at home and a trip to Texas Tech. Need to just stop the bleeding and everything should be fine for them
(40) TEXAS 17-10: Longhorns are an interesting case study. In most year or at least before the 4 extra at large bids were added, Texas would be in some big trouble. A hideous 1-9 vs top 50 rpi schools, a pretty weak 4-10 vs the top 100. Their only wins of note were WVU and bubble Iowa. They are just 6-8 in the Big 12. Still with how weak the bubble is and the fact that the Big 12 is far and away the top conference this year it looks likes the Longhorns are not sweating just yet. The SOS is 18...clearly they played a lot of top schools, they have not lost to anyone outside the top 100 with their worst loss being Stanford at 51. Now the final 4 games though are not easy...at WVU and at Kansas, if they lose those they sit at 6-10 and will likely need to win the last two vs Baylor and Kansas State with the former offering a much needed top 50 win.
BIG 10
IN
(28) MICHIGAN STATE 19-8: Spartans don't seem to have the impressive resume that we are used to seeing from them but it looks like there is enough for them to be relative safe. Winners of 6 of their last 7 they have now moved to 2nd place in the Big 10 at 10-4. They have picked up 3 solid road wins to go along with their win over Ohio State to solidfy their resume. Still the best win is only Indiana, they have no non conference wins of note. Just 2-5 vs top 50 but a solid enough 6-6 vs top 100. Just one bad loss at Nebraska but they have been a strong road team going 8-5. Opportunities to pad their top 100 numbers coming up with games against Minnesota and Purdue and road trips to Wisconsin and Indiana. Would take a total implosion to derail their at large hopes.
(32) INDIANA 19-9: Might have the strongest resume of the Big 10 bubbles but we will still keep them here for now. Quality OOC wins over SMU, Butler, and Pitt. League wins over Maryland and Ohio State. 5-6 vs top 50 and 8-9 vs top 100. Even the two losses to Purdue and the loss to Eastern Washington do not look so bad. Hooisers would have to lose all 3 remaining games at Northwestern, Iowa, MSU plus lose their opening Big 10 tourney game to move them near the Mendoza line.
(41) OHIO STATE 19-8: Here is another school that is benefitting from the weak at large field. Buckeyes are just 2-4 vs top 50 and 6-6 vs top 100. Their SOS is a mediocre 91. Their best OOC win was High Point. 8 of their wins are to plus 200 rpi schools. They are a bad road team at 3-7. They do have wins over Maryland, Indiana and Illinois but nothing is particularly striking about their resume. Still there are no bad losses..worst was last weekend at Michigan. Just need to avoid major missteps in the last two weeks. Nebby, Purdue, Wisky and at PSU on the docket and a split should be good enough to lock them in
(55) IOWA 17-10: Hawkeyes recovered from a midseason slump with two straight over bottom feeders Nebby and RU but they will need to close strong down the stretch. The numbers seem okay 4-6 vs top 50 and 6-9 vs top 100. They swept Ohio State, beat Maryland and do have a really nice road win at UNC. Just one real bad loss at Northwestern. Games at Indy and home to Illinois provide chances to lock them but they cant slip up at Penn State or Northwestern either. Seem to be ahead of the game in the bubble pecking order than OSU, Purdue and Illinois
(59) PURDUE 18-9: Boilermakers are the surprise team of the Big 10 and find themselves sitting in a tie for second at 10-4. Ive seen a lot of other bracketologist puts them near the last 4 in/last 4 out line but that's nonsense. They have played too well once the Big 10 season begain, the selection committee figures to overlook their early losses to Gardner Webb and North Florida as well as another bad loss at Vandy. Thinking is if Purdue can pick up another quality win in their last 4. RU, at OSU, at MSU and Illinois left they lock in. The last game is particulary important for them. So while they haven't picked up a top 25 win yet, 4-3 vs top 50 and 8-5 vs top 100 are their strong points. Wins over bubble schools NCState and BYU loom large.
(58) ILLINOIS 17-10: At the bottom of the Big 10 bubble pecking order, the Illini are quite bubblicious sitting on the last 4 in line as of now. The numbers here are just so so. 3-5 vs top 50 and 5-8 vs top 100. They are not a good road team at 5-8. The win over Baylor is really good. In league wins over Maryland and Purude and at Michigan State but they need some more umph. Problem is the upcoming schedule. The home games of Nebby (who they lost to once) and Northwestern do not provide a chance to build the resume and the road games at Iowa and Purdue are going to be tough to pull off. Need to win one of those preferably both or they will need to do damage in the Big 10 tourney..ie getting to the semis.
MWC
IN
(27) COLORADO STATE 22-5: The Mountain West has slipped tremendously this year as it has dropped all the way down to the 12th rated conference. Going to be tough to get more than 2 from this league but the Rams have the inside track right now but simply need to keep winning. The Rams did beat league leader San Diego State so they get respect there. A split with fellow bubble Boise State but particularly interesting is they got swept by another bubble Wyoming. But yet only 5 losses..only one bad loss to New Mexico. The 2-2 vs top 50 and 5-4 vs top 100 are middling. Their best OOC wins were Georgia State and UTEP. Is that enough? The sheer win total is gaudy but 11 of those game to plus 200 rpi schools They finish with a bunch of bottom feeders...San Jose St, Nevada and Utah State, absolutely no trip ups allowed and they would do themselves well to get to the MWC finals to feel safe.
OUT
(43) BOISE STATE: 18-7: The hot team of the moment having won 10 of 11 but that one bad loss to Fresno could loom large. The profile is similar to CSU perhaps a tad behind overall in SOS and overall number. Both beat San Diego State. Boise has a bigger OOC win with St Marys. However they have 3 bad losses...Fresno, Loyola and Utah St. 2-3 vs top 50 and 5-4 vs top 100. Big key here is the opportunity to get another win at San Diego State, now that would give them the edge on the Rams but they also need to hold serve against the conference bottom feeders. It figures to come down to which team can take the other down in the MWC semis
(77) WYOMING 19-6: I suppose we can put the Cowboys on this list but they are a longshot. They are 3-0 against CSU and Boise. However with 12 of their 19 wins coming against plus rpi 200 schools its hard to recommend them. 3-3 vs top 50, 4-4 vs top 100. Their best OOC was Colorado and only have 6 wins vs top 100 rpi schools. The bad losses to Air Force and Utah State probably seal their fate. If they can sweep their last 4 and then upset San Diego State somewhere in the MWC tourney then maybe they become bubblicious.
PAC 12
(45) OREGON 19-8: As usual the Pac 12 is muddled with bubble teams and the conference on the whole is down yet again. The Ducks would seem to lead the pack of bubbles but still are lacking big wins. The 8-7 mark vs top 100 is the strong point here but they are just 2-5 vs top 100. Did beat 2nd place Utah, fellow bubbles Oregon State and UCLA. Note the win over Illinois. They only have one bad loss to Washington State and that road/neutral mark of 3-6 is kind of sketchy. The last 3 will not be easy...all on the road...Cal, Stanford, Oregon State. Would be nice for them to pick up 2 to lock in, one leaves them probably in but drop all 3 and they are in some trouble. Still whatever happens the Pac 12 tourney is opportunity for they and all the other Pac 12 bubbles to play their way in.
(51) STANFORD 17-9: Cardinal are on the last 4 in line. Beating Wofford and Texas should not be enough to get you in but with the weak bubble someone has to get in. The selling point here is the 9-5 mark vs top 100 schools so while at 1-5 vs top 50 they have no big wins, those 9 wins are far and away better than most bubble schools. Still they should not feel safe. Work to be done in the last 4...the Oregon schools at home and the Arizona schools on the road. This stretch will either lock them in or leave them dangling. Note that they were swept by UCLA and lost to BYU. 3 bad losses to De Paul, WSU and Colorado too.
(47) UCLA 16-12: The SOS of 13 is why I have the Bruins in for now. Not really heavy on quality wins...2-7 vs top 50 and a mediocre 6-11 vs top 100. Did beat Utah, swept Stanford and split with the Oregon schools. Best OOC was just Long Beach State though. One bad loss to Colorado. The road mark is a hideous 3-11. No chance for quality wins in the last 3...Washington schools plus USC but if they can win those games all of which are at home to get to 11-7 in league and make a nice run to maybe the semis in the pac 12 tourney this is a team that will get in.
OUT
(95) OREGON STATE 16-10: That hideous loss last week to USC really stings and they had an earlier bad loss to Quinnipiac The Beavers are on this list simply because they beat Arizona. Other than that just a win over UCLA and a non conference win over Portland which is nothing to write home about. Still the last 3 gives them a shot at 3 top 100 rpi wins that can bolster their resume. Road games at Stanford and Cal and home to Oregon. Win all 3 and they become legit. Road has been tough where they are just 3-6. SOS of 125 is not good. 2-5 vs top 50 and 4-7 vs top 100 does not get it done for a Power 5 school right now
SEC
IN
(33) MISSISSIPPI 19-8: Ole Miss looks in great shape right now. Non conference wins vs Oregon and Cincinnati. League wins at Arky and over Texas A&M. 4-4 vs top 50 and 705 vs top 100 are impressive. 10-3 on the road looks outstanding. SOS is solid at 50. I think the bad losses to TCU, W Kentucky, and Charleston Southern are negated by the positives. Still its not an easy stretch in last 4....Georgia, at LSU, at Bama, and Vandy. Just want to avoid a total meltdown
(53) LSU 19-8: The SOS of 100 may be worse than any other SEC bubble but what stands out here is the 9-5 mark vs top 100 rpi which is better than anyone else here. LSU is 4-4 vs top 50 which include wins at WVU, UMass, they also won at Ole Miss and beat Georgia in their only meeting. The thing holding them back is the 3 bad losses to Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State. Still their two point loss to Kentucky should help them. If they can take down Ole Miss again or win at Arky they can lock things up. Getting swept by Texas A&M is interesting but the eye test says they may be a better tournament team
(34) GEORGIA 17-9: Bulldogs are in right now by the skin of their teeth. They have no top 25 wins, are just 2-3 vs top 50, the 6-5 mark vs top 100 helps them but they should not feel too safe right now. They still have to play at Ole Miss and get Kentucky at home. Winning the latter of course would lock them but short of that they might need that former or leave it up to the always topsy turvy SEC tournament. Just wins over Ole Miss and at Texas A&M to point to and will they get credit for a win over currently imploding SHU out of conference. Getting swept by So Carolina and losing to Auburn hurts
OUT
(37) TEXAS A&M 19-7: The Aggies are the hottest team in the SEC outside of Kentucky winning 10 of their last 12 and sitting in 2nd place in the league so why do they sit on the last 4 out line. Well that's because they do not have one damn top 50 win....0-2 vs top 25 and 0-5 vs top 50. Their best wins were the sweep of LSU who sits outside the top 50. If LSU can move inside the top 50, it will help the Aggies. I feel the LSU profile is overall slightly better despite the head to head losses so for now the Aggies sit here. Their best OOC in was a mediocre Arizona State. The SOS is 90. They have not loss to a team outside the top 100 that's a plus. Now next up is a game at Arkansas it would give them the kind of win they desperately need to move them into the field. They, LSU and Georgia are all most bubblicious right now.
WCC
OUT
(56) ST MARY'S 19-7: Despite Gonzaga's success this year, the WCC is not even in the top 10 rpi conferences. Its going to be tough to get a 2nd team given that the two bubbles are short on wins. St Marys split with BYU this year but lost to Gonzaga twice. Also note the losses to fellow bubbles St Johns and Boise State. Their best OOC win was Colonial leader Northeastern. They have a slight edge on BYU in SOS but its the rest of the bubble field they just fall short in comparison to. 0-4 vs top 50 and 2-5 vs top 100 just does not get it done. Must win their last two and get to the WCC finals beating BYU and then hope that they can play Gonzaga close and get some respect.
(60) BYU 19-8: Cougars do have the better wins compared to St Marys....UMass and Stanford. Nice to have them but ultimately the numbers at 1-3 vs top 50 and 3-5 vs top 100 are not there. Being swept by Pepperdine kills them as does the loss to San Diego. The big thing here is they still have a game at Gonzaga to play in addition to Portland. Its very simple...beat Gonzaga and then your chances go up tenfold. Lose and they suffer the same fate as St Mary's.
LAST 4 IN: DAYTON, STANFORD, GEORGIA, LSU
LAST 4 OUT: TEXAS A&M, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, BOISE STATE
The bubble is extremely weak this year. I know I have been saying this for the past few years. Ever since they added 4 more at large schools to the field its become less interesting and compelling. It really looks like conference realignment has put a kibosh somewhat on midmajor bubble schools. Seems like they are pretty scarce at this point. The pecking order will be released on my next full update on Monday/Tuesday of next week.