UCF was bad last year but they have a new coach. I think it's certainly winnable. College of Charleston in Round 2 would be a straight up road game, so it won't be easy. Nor would Boise if we play them.
I think 9-3 is a reasonable expectation in nonconference play. We will lose at least once in Charleston, and with a young team you've gotta think we will drop one or two games we shouldn't. Lehigh isn't bad, NW State has one of the best scorers in the country, Oregon State and Georgia State are probably losable games.
So it's not a terrifying nonconference slate at all, but there are some sneaky games in there.